If you are serious about this, I'm definitely willing to bet with you. How much action do you want? I'm willing to do even a small "fun" wager if you want. As much as you want to bet.

Margaret Cho gets the boot tonight for sure. She has no appeal to men or the type of women who watch the show. She also made a mockery of her dance, and I don't think that goes down well for someone the public isn't already fond of and gets the joke.

Bristol will outlast Cho, Audrina Patridge, and probably the Hof and Mrs. Brady. It's not just how popular you are, but if your "fans" are willing to pick up the phone and actually vote. The people who love the Palins will do so, while even fans of the Hof probably will "leave it to others" to vote for him.

I think this is right. Also, comedians tend to be overrepresented in the "first to get the boot" department (especially if we include Kenny Mayne, who for practical purposes is a comedian).

It's a shame, because I would be curious to see what Louie could do with her. He is a real miracle worker IMO, it's a shame they always give him some hopeless wreck.

I think even if no one votes for her, she has a better than 5:1 chance of staying this week, because the second worst might not get to 2% of the vote.

In any case, I consider myself "blue" in politics, but I wouldn't let that obscure my vision and not vote for her just because her mom is "red". I think Bristol didn't dance good, but she has the pity factor because she is very shy.
Also, just like she can lose votes from the "blue" side, she can get undeserved votes from the "red" side, since there are plenty of Palin lovers out there.

I'd like to request for the next little bit people post discussion about eliminations in spoiler boxes. I'm playing catch up with my review of all the dances, and I'd rather not see who goes home before I watch the results. Thanks!

Dancing with Wookie, 9/20/2010

Holy ****ing goddamn Kym. Welcome back. She is smokin' tonight.

Audrina opens. She's pretty hot too, and she gets cha cha. This is a good dance for her, but she might prefer getting this later in the season. I was waiting for DWTS to do a routine to that song. They didn't waste any time. Aurina impressed right off the bat with her technique. Her lock steps on the opening pattern weren't perfect, but they were well above par for week 1, dance 1. She turned out her feet on her New Yorker patterns, too, which is just as noteworthy. It really improves the look of the dance. Not to mention, it takes some stones to open with a solo like she did. She wasn't flawless, however. Her footwork did look imprecise and a little sluggish at times, the body roll was forced and awkward, and some of the spins she was off balance for. Still, she did have her arm lines in order. She did have confidence and some character, even if she can work on it yet. This was a very nice opening, something she should be proud of. The sixes were much too harsh. She had way too many important details right on day 1. I was thinking 21, maybe even with an 8. I guess it is standard for the judges to be overly harsh on the first dancer to leave themselves room, but they overdid it.

Kurt and Anna go second. Despite coming from teams rivaling my Seahawks, I have a hard time disliking the guy. He's a class act who's easy for me to root for. That Anna is with him makes it even easier. Opening iwth Viennese waltz is an interesting call. It can be a tougher dance. Like with Audrina, this dance should suit Kurt, but he might have rather drawn it a little later. Not bad, Kurt. But not great. His posture and head position need a ton of work. He rounds his shoulders and sticks his but out. He leaned forward in the contra check instead of extending away from Anna. Oops. To his credit, his arm lines are above par for week 1 men. He's extending out from his body rather than lifting them up from his side, even if he's not really extending them or taking due time. I wasn't really watching his heels and toes with all the other issues going on. Audrina was clearly better, despite the two getting the same score. Len was harsh, and the other two were softies.

Kyle and Lacey, ummm. Kyle is not going to be one of the most likable characters. Kyle had a ton of energy, but it wasn't always directed well. His footwork wasn't as good as Audrina's. He didn't turn his feet out as well or as consistently as she did. He hunched his shoulders and rounded his posture. How can the judges gush over this? Its only redeeming factor was Lacey being a sexpot and a lot of poorly directed enthusiasm. I did see some good lock steps and arm lines in there, but there was a ton of bad going on here. Audrina still had the best dance so far. 8s for this dance is just disgusting. The judges clearly aren't paying attention to technique.

Rick and Cheryl shouldn't have as tough an act to follow as they do. I feel for the tall guy, but I've danced with similar height differentials. It can be done. This was excellent, and the best dance so far tonight. Clean and polished if sample, but that's just fine for week 1. He had very nice posture, and probably better arm lines than even Audrina. He was smooth, patient, and cool. He had enough going on right that I was looking for heels and toes. Unfortunately, Cheryl's dress and the camera work got in the way of a thorough evaluation. What I saw was mixed. Some were good, some were not. The fact that some were good is a very good sign for week 1. That usually takes time to develop. Give this man his 8s, but scoring him under Kyle is a crime. 22 isn't enough compared to Kyle.

I admit it, I turned the channel away from House because I wanted to see Bristol dance. She wasn't bad, but as someone else inferred, she should've been ALOT better. Florence Henderson looked awesome; hard to dislike Kurt. I think the Hoff should go home because he basically didn't even dance.

Wookie, the top of Cheryl's head doesn't ever reach Rick Fox's shoulder!!! It looks as awkward as a little girl dancing with her daddy does. Why didn't they just pick a taller partner for him like Lacey...or any of the other females (I think that they're all taller than Cheryl)?

I don't think they're much taller than Cheryl, although I'll watch for it. Rick handles it much better than Clyde Drexler did.

Margaret and Louis look like they are going to have a hard time. Other than the costume failure, that wasn't too bad. She's too serious and stern for a VW, though. Her frame needs work, although her posture isn't too bad. If the costume covering her face and the slip on the end were deliberate, I guess that is on Louis. I agree with Len that VW is not the dance for it. It's hard to like this dance when there was so much artistic failure. I'm not really opposed to the score.

Brandy draws Max, and they get VW. Wait, what week is it? Ladies and gentlemen, our winner for this season. Her lines, posture, form, and footwork were fantastic. No one will pass this up. This is one of the best week 1 dances ever. If she's decent at Latin, this competition is over. Carrie Ann's 7 was an insult. Switch that to a 9 and this might have been merely a little low. As is, 23 is much too low.

Bristol and Mark. Too bad Mark got her, as Mark is a very talented choreographer. LOL @ teen pregnancy advocate. Based on the comments earlier ITT, I was expecting much less. She had decent footwork, decent posture, decent frame, decent rhythm, decent performance. She could be stronger and more polished and and more energetic, but she had better technique than Kyle. It's hard for me to say she deserves that much better scores than 18, as many people did.

Florence and Corky are a good pairing, and while likable, she's not going to go deep. Not a great dance, but not too bad. She had better footwork than she had frame. Still, she's low on energy and noodly in the arms. Yeah, equating this with Bristol is fine.

Michael and Chelsea are going to need more help than the posture bar. This was like Kurt, but worse. More hunching, shorter arm lines, worse footwork, rounder frame. Less smiling. Worse rhythm. He was fudging his footwork and off the beat. Michael being on tour doesn't bode well for his chances of making it more than a few weeks. I can't argue with his 16. It's too bad that Chelsea's top quality teaching is wasted on someone who's not fully committed.

Michael - Terrible just terrible, poor guy. It was so painful I couldn't watch. He's only slightly better than Kenny Mayne. I agree with you that Chelsea is being wasted. Such a shame.

The Situation and Karina look like a trainwreck. I've never been a Karina fan, and the Situation doesn't have enough days to even look passable. Well, he turned his toes out on his New Yorkers. That's about all I can say that's positive for the Jersey boy. He was on his heels, he turned his feet in, he had bad posture, he wasn't dancing all that often, and he had bad posture and frame. I can't argue with 15.

He might go home, simply by being bad but not too bad and famous but out dated and not too popular.

Jennifer might be a ringer, as she actually can dance and has before. They dance VW. Aaaaaaand, they're the designated tear jerker dance of the week. Damn, this is going to be very close between Jennifer and Brandy. I guess I should have saved some room at the top. Her technique was no worse, and unless Brandy is obviously better in subsequent dances, Jennifer will probably beat her on popularity. Like with Brandy, a 24 was too low for this. Someone should have pulled out a 9.

Hoff and Kym close with cha cha. This was pretty bad. He was off rhythm, and pretty much everything I lauded anyone for not doing earlier, he did. turned in feet, stiff, weird performance, wimpy frame, awkward lock steps. Quickstep will probably kill him.

His dancing made me laugh so hard. I love him.

I agree with almost everything you wrote Wookie. The only part I disagree is with Kyle. I thought his charisma and enthusiasm did raise the performance. He did get higher scores than deserved, but it was just fun to watch.

With respect to Audrina, I think the judges underscored her quite a bit. But I guess they are just being conservative. It is a bit unfair, because they clearly have a lowerbound as they didn't give scores under 15 even though performances like Hoff and Situation clearly deserved lower scores than 15.

Jennifer was good but no where near a 9. I think this season will however be a season full of over inflated scores compared to what they should be.

The next two weeks will show who will be the front winners as this week was three weeks of rehearsals compared to next weeks with only one.

For the California crowd who have not yet got to see the elimination.

Do you have an eye for technique? I'll check myself if you're someone who knows ballroom, but to my eye, he was frequently atrocious. He did have a few things that were acceptable, but his hunched posture killed the look of his dancing for me.