villian is about 28/25/5 over 50 hands. fwiw I hadnt been caught pulling any crazy moves so far. I had been taking down pots without SD though

With that Aggro and not 3 betting preflop I was basically putting him on a hand range that overall cant stand the heat of my turn line thus giving me fold equity but is my CR here believable?

Do I deserve a beration or congratulation?


Pokerstars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $4.55
Hero (BB): $53.80
UTG: $38.10
CO: $101.50
BTN: $72.10

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with A 5
2 folds, BTN raises to $1.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $4, BTN calls $2.50

Flop: ($8.25) 6 9 K (2 players)
Hero bets $6.00, BTN calls $6

Turn: ($20.25) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $10.00, Hero raises to $43.80

I hate it as you say very aggresive plus hero calls and show J-10 Clubs and you miss the river Just my guess before looking at spoiler

I not sure about it becuase I don't know how likely he'll be to fold a king and I think that makes up a fair bit of his range here. That said you've got a decent draw vs Kx and the lower his x the more FE you have, a c/r will get rid of lots of random floats too, and he's almost always going to stab at this given his style and how the hand played. So yeah, thinking about it more I think it's fine, he prob shows up with KQ or 66 this time though, they always do!

aggression factors after 50 hands are absolutely meaningless....dont even use them

Any hand he folds to this turn checkraise, hes folding if you just double barrel, so in terms of a bluff I dont really like it. If you had some read he was floaty (again, his AF over 50 isnt that read), then I would like it.

Was gonna say what alobar said. Honestly, I think AF is pretty much a worthless statistic over all. Frankly, I don't even think about it unless I have at least 200 or so hands on the person. Even then, i'm VERY skeptical of the statistic. I really look for reads when it comes to this ****. If I remember correctly the AF is calculated as the ratio of bets to calls, and doesn't factor in folds. Just seems suspect to me. I think after quite a number of hands it can tell you something about their postflop game, but honestly I think we should be looking for specific hands observed to get an idea of what they are doing postflop.

Oh and about the hand... IDK, I am more inclined to just give up after the flop here. Doesn't seem like he's gonna fold when he calls that flop. If he's floating you a lot on these boards then it could be okay. I'm not sure though.... someone should do the maths.

i think this is an ok move....def +EV

thanks for the feedback guys.

regarding the AF thing. I do think that it has some relevance at the extremes and has some relevance in this spot. this guy is playing 25% of hands so its not like he is a 15/10 nit who always has a hand when he enters a pot.

i havent done the math here but im confident that if he folds something like 50% of the time then its going to be +EV and i happy that he can fold enough here for this to be +EV, even if not greatly so. His range has few monsters and lots of marginal or air hands imo. Also people at this limit just dont read hands that well. Sure they might bitch and moan about being bluffed but they still fold when they shouldnt according to FTOP.

The problem is tho, TPTK is at the bottom end of his range of real hands. So all his folds have to come from floats

also, 50 hand AF really are meaningless man. Just watch your own stats as you play and see how wildly that stuff swings. You can be a 28/25 and never even see a turn or river or 50 hands. Even VPIP/PFR isnt super reliable over 50 hands. Ive had 50 hands stretches tons of times where im like 14/12 and ones where Im like 34/28 and im normally 21/17, a lot depends on table conditions and cards.

This is an interesting spot OZ. I find i spew a lot making these moves. I don't think this is the spot for it. I'm finding that FE is greatly reduced when you go AI on the turn when the villain's stack size has dwindled. The fact that his range includes a lot of K's and Q's, also means recuced FE.

In regards to the AF, i'd be more concerned with how much of a station he is....

Also, PF, is it standard for you to 3 bet the btn's open out of the BB here?

its hard not to make moves like this when the DC pro's do it. I still think this move is at worst borderline. i think if he folds half the time then its +ev and i tihnk he does fold half the time and i though that before i saw him tank tptk. as for stack sizes, i think i had enough gas in the tank to make this move on the turn.

3bet here isnt my standard but as i said, i hadnt got out of line and this guy has a pfr of 25% so he is definitely stealing here alot. I expect this sort of player to 4ball or fold alot.