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Is He Bluffing? Is He Bluffing?

06-03-2008 , 09:26 PM
Villain is 37/35/9 over 57 hands.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $4.75
MP: $26.20
CO: $37.75
BTN: $15.05
Hero (SB): $49.20
BB: $3.95

Pre-Flop: T T dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, MP raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $4, BB folds, MP calls $3

Flop: ($8.25) 5 8 2 (2 Players)
Hero bets $6.25, MP raises to $22.20 and is All-In, Hero.... ??
06-03-2008 , 09:37 PM
you could look at this as a simple math problem.

Lets say he makes this move with what he perceives to be big hands and big equity draws. We'll estimate that it gives him a range of 22, 55, 88, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, A5d+, K9d+, Q9d+, J9d+, T9

so [according to the trusty ol poker razor] equity against that range gives him overcards 21.3% of the time, and he's got flush outs that whole time. Our hand is best about 30% of the time here, but our equity vs the whole range is 23.2%

looks like a fold even if he is bluffing given that kind of a range.
06-03-2008 , 11:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guruman
you could look at this as a simple math problem.

Lets say he makes this move with what he perceives to be big hands and big equity draws. We'll estimate that it gives him a range of 22, 55, 88, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, A5d+, K9d+, Q9d+, J9d+, T9

so [according to the trusty ol poker razor] equity against that range gives him overcards 21.3% of the time, and he's got flush outs that whole time. Our hand is best about 30% of the time here, but our equity vs the whole range is 23.2%

looks like a fold even if he is bluffing given that kind of a range.
Given his stats id widen that range to include 99, 77, 66, and some occasional 98s 76s stuff. Plus discount AA/KK for not 4 betting PF

so according to stove we've got 43% equity which makes this an easy call.
06-03-2008 , 11:41 PM
The reason I called is the guy is very spewy and Aggro. Do you think it's unlikely he's going nuts with an A8o or 77/99?
06-03-2008 , 11:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by inspectorgadget
The reason I called is the guy is very spewy and Aggro. Do you think it's unlikely he's going nuts with an A8o or 77/99?
Well you were at the table, what do you think he would do? If you think he was very aggro and spewy then I definitely think theres a good chance he will do that with those hands, in which case its a good call. But like I said, you were playing with him, so you would know best.

Getting a feel for what players are doing is a skill just like anything else, and is something you can practice and work on at the table. When it comes decision time put them on a range and make the best play according to your read of their range, but always pay attention to what they showed and adjust your read in the future as necessary. Now obviously if he showed 88 here it doesnt mean he wont do it with A8, but if over time and number of hands youll get a better feel for what they do and dont have. Which is one of the reasons I think that if you think its a close decision that you should call. One because then you get to see what he had and it will be useful for future decisions, and two because in my experience their range is ALWAYS wider than I give them credit for so if its close, then its prolly on the + side and not the -
06-04-2008 , 05:19 AM
Icky spot but I think you've got to call. I hate playing vs these guys because he'll show up with JJ+ so often when you call. Lots of spewy + agro players are spewy + agro without really risking their whole stack, I don't know if you've noticed that with him or not. If he's be shoving lots then I think it's an easy call, if he's just been raising lots then I can make a bigger case for folding but still probably call.

Would a c/r be good on this flop? I find these guys stack off lighter when you c/r their ass and given your description of him I can't see him checking it through.
06-04-2008 , 01:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by djshawk

Would a c/r be good on this flop? I find these guys stack off lighter when you c/r their ass and given your description of him I can't see him checking it through.
ooooh, I like

      
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