no, im not being wolfy

annie what did you mean in that post evene picked out

"based on how the voting is"

which post #?

#2337

the bottom part of her MQ

yeah whats the question? supine was an obvious villager so i voted to save him

the question is

you say based on the voting supine will be villa

and then you say you want to see how the wagons are

so what did you mean by, "based on how the voting is"

ohhhhhhhhh, what i meant specifically is that specifically that supine had 5 (so many) votes, he was obv a villager since the wolves were happy to see him lynched

interesting

i was thinking he was more likely to be a wolf since he was prob dying today

and the wolfs wouldnt want to miss out on his lynch there

nah it didn't feel like he had a team backing him up there

he was being shat on

i prefer ****ted to shat

shat sounds so vulgar

this game is so freaking hard before you get the first wolf

dont even have a seer claim to wait on either

christ

sry noah
please consider it a testament of how I think your wolf game has improved <3

so heres whats going to happen. Im going to list a bunch of things im gonna do this weekend. Im trying not to be the person that "assigns homework" as it was put to me recently anymore. However, if someone would LIKE to help and wants to offer, cool.

First: time to make voting charts

Day 1

Day 2

I am going to erase all of my previous reads and start fresh. There's a good amount of information out there right now and something should be able to be learned about most people.

To start I'm going to look at D2 wagon formations. The way that supine grabbed and early 4 votes that were from people who did not appear to want to move off of him means it's a good starting point.

Knowing now that Supine was a villager, let's try to break into what way we think is most likely the wolves approached the situation from. At eod 1, supine had pretty much claimed seer to save himself in turn lynching the actual seer. The wolves had to have known he would be under much duress on day 2. It should have been a virtual lock to have him lynched.

I would hear others opinions on if they think the wolves were more likely to:
- Sit back and let the village take over and lead this mislynch out of frustration from the day before
- Start the wagon with a matter of fact "well obviously we have to lynch him" mentality to ensure the village doesn't wise up
- Pile on once the wagon starts to ensure the mislynch is the most likely outcome all day
- Detract from the wagon to look good down the line

Speaking of Supine, knowing that Crossnerd and Supine were villagers makes end of day 1 an important focal point of a reread. There was a lot of chaos going on at the time, lots of moving around, lots of action. This indicates we most likely wouldn't have had v/v/v wagons before the crossnerd CFD I think.

Jim's probably villa

I was going to focus on day 2 wagons and see who was erratic alongside me and think that would indicate a villager. The theory being the wolves did not want to upset their mislynch, and after seeing eod1 where we are willing to CFD late were hesitant to disrupt anything. I tried to move many people's votes around onto many other people in hopes something would become evident. Sadly I don't think anyone was spastic enough for me to draw any relevant conclusions. This doesn't even just refer to eod. Through the entire day you can see that of people still alive (Noah being the exception to this which is why I clarify alive) the most votes on different wagons by a player is two.

So far on my list is:
[ ] Reread eod1 with the knowledge crossnerd and supine were villa. Focus on the wagons prior to the panic and CFD, focus on who was being vocal about supine or crossnerd, focus on who seemed to disappear when the wagons shifted to supine/crossnerd.

[ ] Discuss the most likely goal of the wolves yesterday regarding Supine, and then cross reference with not only the players that voted Supine early and stayed, but those who seemed to stray.

Add to my list an investigation on why Noah was the Night Kill.

There are a couple, uh, projects(?) that I feel would greatly benefit us in figuring out a couple players roles but I am far too lazy to do it right now. Which is why I haven't actually started reading eod1 yet.