tarheels, xoom, atak, fraser... come spew for us! Seriously, don't you want to defend yourselves?

It's time for some poker. I'm away from thread for a few hours. I hope more folks come in and post in the meantime.

I almost forgot:
atakdog

but please don't majority him. He's going to get lynched today no matter what, the wolves won't dare vote against him.

Well, isn't this amusing?

I'd counterclaim, but... Oh, OK. Zurvan wants you to think I'm some horrible, murderous lizard, but he's wrong:

As soon as i claimed, someone tried to lynch me, didnt work out. atak

Oh, here's another pic, and then we have to talk...

What is there to talk about?

lol atakdog

i think that there are two seers, or at least two major power village roles.

hang on a sec...

Bobman was protecting two humans - ian (jeff goldblum?) and Alan (nfi), i.e. there are two major human powers.

Yep, I'm highly carnivorous; Zurvan is right.

Thing is, you want me alive.

Nich is right about my winning condition -- must-lynch with exactly one raptor alive. And I know who they are (but can't communicate with them outside the thread).

I get to kill one per night -- one human, or raptor. The epi kill was duplicated; bad move on my part, as it probably should have been clear the raptors/wolves were going to go after him next.

If you kill me today, you have a problem tomorrow; a problem you might be able to prevent:

• If you lynch me, it's 6-3 tonight; 5-3 in the morning. Must-lynch. Your seer (if it's not Zurvan, nicely done) is alive, because either the raptors target him and aard dies in his place, or they just target aard. Meanwhile, you have another peek unless the raptors have a roleblocker (which I don't know). If you get the lynch wrong, game over; if it's right, it goes to 4-2, and now zurvan's dead for sure and you have to get it right again.
• If you lynch a raptor today (because I give him to you -- yes, I know who they are), it's 6-2-1. Tomorrow it's 4-2-1 (presumably with aard dead), and I give you another raptor if Zurvan hasn't peeked one. 4-1-1 after the lynch; 2-1-1 the next morning (with Zurvan dead). I leave the game victorious (yay me!), you're at 2-1 and have to get it right.

These are not the same outcome. With me dead, you have to get it right three times; at 5-3, 4-2, and 2-1. You may have the benefit of one peek; you may not. Have fun.

With me alive at 4-1-1, you are guaranteed to go to must-lynch at 2-1-1 (becoming 2-1 after I leave) the next day. What if I lie to you, or you mis-lynch? I then kill a raptor to guarantee my own victory. (The raptors can't kill me that night because they need to take out Zurvan.) You still have to get it right, but only once.

So let me live. I can help you -- and it's in my interest to do so.

By the way, it disappoints me that no one has mentioned what aard's role obviously is. Oh, the irony: he's the atakdog, the one who is nightkilled in place of a claimed seer.

Thanks, Soah; I'm honored.

ack - any chance you unvote for the time being so we can think aboot this?

unvote

There's no majority vote.

I mean, in theory, I really like atak's proposal... it is in his best interests to give us a raptor today, although I'm not sure I believe that I live through the night in his scenario. So we're really trading 2 villagers, or 1 vill and 1 wolf, for a guaranteed wolf... the 2 villagers being me and whoever I would have peeked tonight.

you only die if Atak kill's you though; and we turbo him the day after and he loses

I was looking for the post where soah or his alter ego said day would never end early without pre-announcement -- that means no majority lynch. It was some time over the weekend iirc.

Zurvan, you're right that you may not live through the night, but the atakdog role, nightkilled in place of a seer, that aard seems to have is one that soah himself brought up in an after-game thread a while back. It certainly seems believable to me, so I think you have to operate on that assumption.

I guess the question is, do we believe that atak is

a) T-Rex
b) Will tell us the truth about the raptor
c) Letting him kill a villager tonight is the best thing for the village

Atak

What I mean is, if both you & the raptors kill me tonight, do I die? If we assume yes, then we have to question if you will or will not kill me tonight.

i do not know if there are two sssquua-tuushrhres

the two ended up being neutral, not sssquua-tuushrhres. i have no knowledge of sssquua-tuushrhre aonstutuunmuums. I misunderstood that vision, i misunderstood tuhhuitsass ydctukyueeuudtasruursck wuaensahckhn I realised tsetahcuuyhk are neutral, not ssuuqsa-thrsruuehs

I'm a bit sad that you protect only from wolf kills, or so it seems.

Doesn't matter to me; I have no particular reason to kill a seer if I know I'm making it to tomorrow. And the raptors won't kill me if they won't to have a chance, so I do know I'll live through the night if I'm not lynched.

Zurvan - did you play/read the mallorean iii on usg?

this is a direct parallel to that game, with epi as wassername. We have to be very careful, imo, about our move here.

I played malloreon 3 here. Read my screaming at the village about listening to Epi. I'm trying to work through this and get opinions on whether we trust Atak is telling the truth.

am i right we have 3 confirmed villagers, 3 unconfirmed villagers, 1 confirmed trex and 3 velociraptors.

AND

if the raptors try to kill Zurv, aard will die in his place?

Re (a), I haven't thought through whether I would do this as a raptor.

Re (b) -- evne if you get the lynch wrong, I nightkill a raptor and send it t 4-2-1 tomorrow. Only way for me to win.

Re (c) -- it's a matter of how many shots you want to take at must-lynch, I think. There may be something I don't know about power village roles that changes the analysis, but that's how it looks from my perspective.

I should clarify: I don't know the details of aard's role, or any other besides my own. But I don't think I have any particular incentive for you to live or die now that I've been peeked. The only power role I really cared about was the vig, and I took care of that problem...