prefer herbie over aao so if im still alive don't have to deal with this "oh u play better as a villager" bs. don' really care if herbie is a villager either. he's not changing his mind about me and i know im 100% villager.

zhaorx

I just had an epiphany. aao is not a wolf.

you are correct!

Ultimately what it comes down to for me is that I don't believe that it's at all likely that any of the following people are wolves

AAO - theory post, vote on Z at eod, vote on Z day 1 all combined
Bsball - general villagery posting, seems to be trying and helping
Bitchi - Interactions with Soah, eod when scrubbo got lynched
Chips - general villagery posting again

I *think* engarde is a villager but it's so hard to read newbies in their first game. If he's a wolf he's a very very good one for a newbie, but I don't have the same confidence about him as I have about the above 4

That leaves Danny, Z, coordi, and sixfour (and me ldo). I feel like the main problem with my Z, Danny, sixfour trio is that it's kinda tough for Danny and Z to be wolves together here because of the eod 1 stuff. So I'm thinking atm the most likely wolf team is coordi, sixfour, (one of Danny/Z).

Alright so the game's still going on so I won't get into too much detail, but aao is dead there so I dont think this is taboo.

aao was randed neutral in the LOST game. I talked to him about it n0, and he said he was super excited. He was planning on making an SSOD to earn him a ton of villager points.

We started talking about how easy it would be for people to figure out what he was if he always made the SSOD as a villager, and never made it as a wolf. He said that, while he has sometimes not made it as a villager, he has NEVER made one as a wolf.

aao didn't have to come back and make an SSOD today. granted, he hasn't made one yet, and it's pretty late in the game for him to be making one. but the point stands that I honestly believe aao will never make an SSOD as a wolf (unless he is trying to outlevel me, and ONLY me, by assuming that he can never be a wolf here).

herbie, I looked at your theory, and that is what jogged my memory of aao here.

Z if you are a villager, do NOT vote aao today.

dannykgb

I believe in EnGarde because he really knows the thread well. I don't see how he could do that as a wolf. I'm never voting him.

Your set is exactly correct. The interesting thing is Z is only willing to vote from {aao, Herbie} -- and until a few minutes ago I would have expected him to win the Z/Herbie battle.

You can see why I'd rather wait to resolve you 2.

So
{coordi, sixfour} should be the wagons.

just for the record,

if you think soah is capable of orchestrating the plan that aao outlined, wouldn't you also agree that soah is capable of orchestrating the plan that aao implemented?

this doesn't change the fact that aao is a villager, just saying

EnGarde knows what's going on.

ok im starting to think chipsahoy is a wolf now.

Don't know if this was brought up before, but thought it might be worth quoting

The plan I've seen soah use before is get another wolf wagoned on the day he dies. You'll recall it was soah who picked Z as the other wagon.

Good luck with that one sir.

No, I don't think that Soah is capable of orchestrating the plan AAO outlined. I think the plan AAO outlined is FAR too complex to actually happen in reality because nobody can predict other people's reactions to that complex a sequence of events. The only way to come up with a plan like that that actually works the way it's supposed to is either through a huge amount of dumb luck or the benefits of hindsight.

The point is that as outlandish as that theory is the very fact that he's attempting to think about the game that way at this point is as firm and as solid a villager tell as there is.

it could be some team like bitchi/chipsahoy/64

The reason newbies are tricky is that some newbies are capable of more than you would expect them to be capable of right off the bat. EnGarde has not been such a ZOMG obvious villager here that he could never be lynched (like Dustin was in his first game, which is why we killed him n1), but I could very easily have seen Dustin play a game very similar to the one EnGarde is playing now had he been rand()ed wolf his first game. It's not a high percentage thing, but it's not impossible either.

meh we've reached the same conclusion through different ways. I consider it successful

So we're both right

if engarde ever comes up as a lynch target, the first thing we should do is see if his posting style changes after soah died.

I'm with you guys too. One of the things that makes the SSOD valuable is aao believes in it. So it ensures that he casts votes based on his own opinions rather than being tricked by wolves. His belief is what makes it a reliable tell too.

Recall his post "I realize I'm nothing without my SSOD" when he was trying to decide.

I've always thought tells like this were overrated, and I think they're especially overrated in games that don't have 24 hour wolfchat. Regardless having seen the way he's posted all game and the way that he answered everyone's questions yesterday I feel pretty confident that he wrote all of his own posts. Whether he got coached or not is a different story, but there weren't any posts that jumped out at me as being out of line with all his other posts that were clearly written spur of the moment.

Good point. Regardless of his role I underestimated him.

Although I do think there's some stuff from EnGarde that seems massively newbie-villagery (like his "this isn't fun anymore" quote)

QF Villagery