Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread

05-11-2011 , 02:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HerbieGRD
Mets - why aren't you blindly following me at this point? Do you really believe that duckburg is the most likely wolf here or is this a generic anti-fps thing?
Mets' psuhing me bacause he fears me imo.
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 02:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by metsandfinsfan
thank you drubell for making me go back and read this. Drubell definitely gets a pass today from me, and maybe forever if OTI is a wolf

OTI needs to contribute today: point blank

OnthinIce

This don't make sense OTI, and you're subbed in as someone whose slots hasn't said a thing since 3 hours before EOD D2, so I really wish you'd get more involved.
[/QUOTE]

since the formatting is all messed up i am not sure what you were trying to say, but i went back and read OTI since he only has 7 posts it was super easy.

he hasn't participated in any way. he blatantly admits sponging yesterday AND today. he openly admits to not participating. i really don't see OTI wolf playing this. i think OTI is a villager. sad to say a villager who isn't helping, but still a villager.

so you shouldn't clear larue for this. and it's suspicious that you mentioning clearing him for this. please don't make me start to attack you again this game
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 02:55 PM
I'll write up a detailed quoting of posts if people want, but the strongest soft evidence is that filthy is responding much differently in this game when I have accused him than in other games where I have done so. If I die first I'll just leave that there for people to quote later.
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 02:58 PM
filthy
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 02:59 PM
unvote
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 03:00 PM
other wolfsides include mets and bob ross
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 03:01 PM
mers - I keep trying to write a response to your post about filthy but I keep getting bogged down in details that are necessary for the argument I'm trying to make but end up making my post unreadable. I think the best way for me to sum up what I'm trying to say is that there are a lot of assumptions leading you to the conclusions that you reached and I don't think I agree with at least some of them. I think the things you point out are interesting but I do not believe that any of them actually increase the odds that filthy is a wolf by any noticeable amount
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 03:03 PM
Care to provide some math to back that up?

Coaching session I actually have to pay attention to, be back in an hour
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 03:04 PM
herbie,

i really want to believe mers is a villager. do you think mers is a villager? and could you tell me if your opinion would change much about mers if you knew for 100% certain that i was a villager?
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 03:06 PM
since the formatting is all messed up i am not sure what you were trying to say, but i went back and read OTI since he only has 7 posts it was super easy.

he hasn't participated in any way. he blatantly admits sponging yesterday AND today. he openly admits to not participating. i really don't see OTI wolf playing this. i think OTI is a villager. sad to say a villager who isn't helping, but still a villager.

so you shouldn't clear larue for this. and it's suspicious that you mentioning clearing him for this. please don't make me start to attack you again this game[/QUOTE]


Were you not in the tale of horror game where OTI subbed in as the wolf seer and barely posted anything?

Why are you giving village points for being UTR?
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 03:09 PM
is the tale of horror game the movie mish mash? oh no wait. tale of horror was the stephen king one. i died right away and didn't pay any attention to that game.

so OTI subbed in as a power wolf there and was playing just like he is here?
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 03:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mersenneary
Care to provide some math to back that up?

Coaching session I actually have to pay attention to, be back in an hour
There's no actual math in your post so I'm not sure what math I'm supposed to provide, but I'll try to list some of the unspoken assumptions just in point 1

- Sleeves is not a wolf
- Wolves will try to save a wolf in distress a higher % of the time than they choose to bus a wolf in distress
- No wolves on the 2nd place wagon who was in danger of being the lynch increases the chance of that person being a wolf

Just off the top of my head. I'm not convinced any of these assumptions are correct.
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 03:10 PM
since the formatting is all messed up i am not sure what you were trying to say, but i went back and read OTI since he only has 7 posts it was super easy.

he hasn't participated in any way. he blatantly admits sponging yesterday AND today. he openly admits to not participating. i really don't see OTI wolf playing this. i think OTI is a villager. sad to say a villager who isn't helping, but still a villager.

so you shouldn't clear larue for this. and it's suspicious that you mentioning clearing him for this. please don't make me start to attack you again this game[/QUOTE]

Huh?? What? Exondo wasn't talking about me he was talking about Mets. I don't know how my name got thrown in here.
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 03:11 PM
Yeah, and survived two of my vig shots
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 03:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by filthyvermin
herbie,

i really want to believe mers is a villager. do you think mers is a villager? and could you tell me if your opinion would change much about mers if you knew for 100% certain that i was a villager?
I think mers is a villager, but I'm not confident about it. You being a villager would not impact my judgement all that much either way, but if anything you being a villager would make it more likely that mers is also a villager, just because I don't see why wolf-mers would make that case against village-you at this point in time
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 03:15 PM
up to #1064

Vote Count  
Total Votes Player Vote
 Bob Ross Dyenimator
2Duckburg zayana
 DonkDonkDonkDonk  
 Drubellunvote
4Dyenimator 
 Exoendo 
1Filthyvermindyenimator
 herbieGRDdyenimator
 LaRue05dyenimator
1Mersennearyfilthyvermin
 Metsandfinsfanonthinice911
1Onthinice911 
 sleevesDuckburg
 uaw710 
 youngplayer9 
 younguns87mersenneary
1zayanaDuckburg

Pm me if there are any mistakes or rebold your vote plz
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 03:16 PM
Frankly I'm going to be a very sad panda if we don't end up lynching dyenimator today
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 03:18 PM
Update list:

Villas
  • Filthy - I made my case earlier
  • Bob - #845 villagery tone, #858 TONS of analysis, especially for a new player

Quote:
"Your argument made zero sense and was nothing but a baseless fabrication to try and get the conclusion you wanted."
^ DOES NOT sound like a newbie wolf
  • YG - Has been more villagery recently. Also his reaction to me when I called him a wolf was to call me a wolf right back and slightly tunnel me. I think wolves tend to ignore when a random person floats their name because they dont want to attract too much attention to themselves.

The rest in no particular order:
  • Drubell - I think he's had a lot of villagery analysis. Honest tone.

  • Mets - Seems more interested in this game than his prior wolf games as of late. Less standoffish

  • Duck - don't see why he would draw so much heat as a wolf by possibly fake peeking mets and zay wolves. The two most likely players that would probably most stir up a ****storm over it. It's worthy to note he claimed wolf in an ongoing ww game and his role there is still unresolved. So that could be useful insight into his tendencies if he comes back wolf there. But we can't really speculate on that right now.

  • Larue - I think post #918 comes off as villagery

Neutral (no particular order):
  • Zay - Just don't want to clear yet.

  • Herbie - I don't think herbie has been overtly villagery, that isn't to say he's wolfy. I am just not confident yet.

  • oti - meh nothing on him yet

  • dye - can sound wolfy, I think a good chance he's still just a newbie villager.

  • Mers - making a lot of weird conditional statements. i.e.: "If this is this and this is this than that means I am not a wolf." I think a lot of his posts look kind of "planned" if that makes sense. He has been putting in effort but I just get bad vibes from him. The most wolfy out of my neutrals. Really more of a lean wolf than a neutral tbh, but I dont know If i want to put him firmly in my wolf list yet

Wolves (no particular order):

Some of these are POE'd. Most of these guys are for the most part in the background and not saying much.
  • Donk - his assumption that the mrgaito kill was based on tone I think is just really off for a villager to conclude right away. He also hasn't been posting much or given much in the way of reads

  • Sleeves - doesn't post much, hasn't offered up much, readily agreed with my filthy analysis and I find that odd because I don't think he's been paying a ton of attention to the thread, so his snap conclusion just reads to me that he's just skimming, seeing a long post and going "looks good"

  • YP9 - UTR, in the background, still an unresolved wagon

  • UAW - hiding, not contributing
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 03:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mersenneary
I'll write up a detailed quoting of posts if people want, but the strongest soft evidence is that filthy is responding much differently in this game when I have accused him than in other games where I have done so. If I die first I'll just leave that there for people to quote later.
Have you read my post about filthy being villa? Please let me know what you think
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 03:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sleeves
I'm very sorry everyone, but I am traveling a little over an hour away for business. My last meeting is at 5pm est if it doesn't take to much time I hope to be back before the end of day hits.

I just don't have a very strong feel on filthy and in the beginning he was the only one I had a villa feel on that didn't vote for mjw

For now I'll vote:

Duck

And hopefully I'll have some time to read up on posts when I get back.
I hope you are doing this for a reason other than my post. Even in my post I said he's probably an fpsing villa.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LaRue05
Your so flustered/piss off that you're caught in lies you're not even following the thread correctly.

No where was I ever discussing the NK or Bambam. Go back and read; I clearly laid how how you were being contradictory in your statements about Ducks post.

Keep digging though, I don't mind.
I'm following the thread correctly. And I haven't lied about a single thing. Follow the previous post, it's not entirely apparent what you are referring to, but I know what I was referring to in what I quoted. Who's not following the thread correctly?

Quote:
Originally Posted by LaRue05
And now you're contradicting yourself. HOOooooooooooooWWWLLLLL
Quote:
Originally Posted by LaRue05
mets was your vote supposed to be bold?
He was obviously talking about Duck voting me there and NOT intending to vote me. Who's not following the thread correctly?

Quote:
Originally Posted by filthyvermin
i feel kinda stupid but i am having a hard time understanding mers that he is a clear villager.

perdition was not an easy mislynch D1. if you had tried to lynch perdition D1 you would have probably gotten some heat from it. and maybe i am wrong, but if wagons were v/v/v than it seems to me it doesn't really matter what you do.

i also don't understand how counterwagon dynamics clear YP
Mers made a case, I get his case. But with bussing and such there is no reason to completely clear him based on it, but it looks good enough and there are wolfier people itt.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dyenimator
except for the part where i restated my wolf lean on bob ross? this happened in the last game too, systo twisted my post to fit his argument. please stop.
DO NOT TALK ABOUT ONGOING GAMES.
The people you are talking about are still alive, there are people in this game still alive. Don't make me say this again!

Quote:
Originally Posted by exoendo
1) if wolves dont have a good feel for who the seer is they may default to killing a clear rather than potentially spewing someone else villa/wolf. Especially in games >17ers

2) wolves can kill a clear player and roleblock a suspected seer
meh, maybe, but I still think if there are good potential seer candidates, they're killing them and not a cleared villa.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LaRue05
This is silly, I've been throughly wolf hunting today; and yesterday.

I catch people in lies... it puts them on tilt... I get better reads out of their following posts.
Except you aren't catching people in lies and you are reading people wrong!

Quote:
Originally Posted by drubell
taking applications from anyone that lynched Perdition.

Who wants their vote to count as double.

This don't make sense OTI, and you're subbed in as someone whose slots hasn't said a thing since 3 hours before EOD D2, so I really wish you'd get more involved.
This is a villager!

Quote:
Originally Posted by metsandfinsfan
it was dyne 4 you 3 perd 0 or 1 at one point. then perd came out of nowhere. assuming wolves started the perd wagon, why would they if you were a villager and dyn was a wolf? thats what i dont get
Wolves wouldn't necessarily know Perd is angel, Perd comes off as wolfy only because he's a little abrasive sometimes. So a villa could have started it. I only see wolves starting it if it is filthy/dye as w/w. Donk and UAW were the first 2 people on, so meh, it could have been wolf generated.

Yesterdays vote order:
Count Post Player Vote
1 477 HerbieGRD Dyenimator
1 526 Metsandfinsfan Duckburg
1 538 Drubell LaRue05
2 550 Metsandfinsfan LaRue05
1 556 Filthyvermin Youngplayer9
1 590 Bob Ross DonkDonkDonkDonk
1 608 Drubell UAW710
1 613 Filthyvermin Zayana
1 634 DonkDonkDonkDonk Perdition
1 646 Duckburg Younguns87
1 649 Perdition Filthyvermin
2 655 Metsandfinsfan Younguns87
2 692 Zayana UAW710
1 706 Younguns87 Mersenneary
2 707 Filthyvermin Mersenneary
2 710 Mersenneary Filthyvermin
2 714 UAW710 Perdition
2 723 Filthyvermin Dyenimator
1 738 OnThInIcE911 Metsandfinsfan
3 743 Drubell Perdition
2 755 Metsandfinsfan Mersenneary
3 - 760 - Zayana - Dyenimator   
3 - 766 - Sleeves - Filthyvermin   
4 - 767 - Bob Ross - Dyenimator   
2 - 776 - Youngplayer9 - Younguns87   
4 - 799 - Metsandfinsfan - Perdition   
5 - 802 - LaRue05 - Perdition   
1 - 811 - Exoendo - DonkDonkDonkDonk   
- 812 - Drubell - unvote   
2 - 816 - Bob Ross - DonkDonkDonkDonk   
4 - 818 - BamBam192 - Filthyvermin   
5 - 820 - Exoendo - Perdition   
6 - 824 - Filthyvermin - Perdition   

Quote:
Originally Posted by metsandfinsfan
people are so afraid to call herbie at all wolfy

like mers just pointed out somethign wolfy about herbie, and then said "but you are still on the village side in my lineup"

i point out that the kill could point to herbie being a wolf, but even i qualify that i think herbie is probably a villager; and nobody reacts, or blinks an eye

im getting in the shower and going to work. ill get on to at least read and vote, but ill be spotty at best. i may change my vote before i go
Maybe, cause he's not a wolf?

I said the same thing about the kill, mers = villa, Herbie = wolf is the only possibility I really saw.

Quote:
Originally Posted by HerbieGRD
I don't think people are afraid to call me wolfy, they just don't think I'm a wolf. It's not that hard to understand imo
This.

Quote:
Originally Posted by metsandfinsfan
thank you drubell for making me go back and read this. Drubell definitely gets a pass today from me, and maybe forever if OTI is a wolf

OTI needs to contribute today: point blank

OnthinIce
Good catch from Dru. I'm staying on Duck all day out of principle, but this looks bad for OTI. I mean no offense to Exo but I don't think he's anywhere close to clear either, he's had some good posts, but if I was randomly giving my vote to anyone right now it'd probably be Dru.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mersenneary
Three initial reasons for filthy being a wolf

1. Yesterday's filthy wagon consisted of BamBam, Perdition, myself, and Sleeves. We now know that two of those people were villagers. I happen to know that three people are villagers. From my vantage point, it is exceedingly likely that not a single wolf voted for filthy yesterday, when one vote would/could have gotten him lynched. I obviously don't expect you to trust what I say my vantage point is, but it helps to explain me going after him, and regardless, knowing that two cleared villagers were on him yesterday should be significant to you. The wolves could have killed him yesterday if they wanted to. Sometimes, they didn't because all three wagons were villagers, sometimes, they didn't because he's a wolf, but probabilistically, it significantly increases the odds of the second.

2. This game has been marked by a distinct lack of overt "peeks", which perhaps has led to some strange NKs. I strongly intimated a "filthy = village" peek on d1, going as far to say that votes on him were "really bad" near the end of the day after making a "filthy is a villager" post has one of my first. Him not dying for a curious kill of mrgatito significantly increases the chances of filthy being a wolf. Surprisingly, I haven't heard anybody mention the single best reason to believe I'm a wolf so far - the fact that my "peek" was ignored may not have been because it was wrong, but because I'm a wolf. Now that's a probabilistic reason to support me, and it's a probabilistic reason to support him, too.

3. Day 1 Voting. We don't get a lot of hard evidence from this early on with no wolves flipped yet, but some actions do change the probability. Filthy helped establish the BamBam wagon by the "deal" in which he hopped on for future considerations. He said he thought mjw was a villager 8 minutes before the end of night, and posted soft evidence suggesting he was a villager 5 minutes before end of night, and then voted him at midnight. If YP9 is a villager, this vote is villagery, as there's no need to jump on a villager's wagon. I think readless about YP9 though, this pattern is logically suspicious.
This might have merit. And with a bunch of people pushing me now I'm not clearing anyone for it anymore. He has had some good posts though, so I'll reread him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duckburg
Mets' psuhing me bacause he fears me imo.
He's pushing you because you are either a wolf or a crappy villager. Oh and he switched to OTI, so you are late on this post.
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 03:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HerbieGRD
I think mers is a villager, but I'm not confident about it. You being a villager would not impact my judgement all that much either way, but if anything you being a villager would make it more likely that mers is also a villager, just because I don't see why wolf-mers would make that case against village-you at this point in time
i have a slight villa lean on mers. that is almost completely from his analysis of D1 wagons that i believe gives him some village credit for the way the votes went down.

i do not give him any credit at all for his attack on me. he could easily do this in either role. he said in a recent turbo that his goal for the game was to not get pwned by me.
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 03:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zayana


meh, maybe, but I still think if there are good potential seer candidates, they're killing them and not a cleared villa.

Sorry to pick this one thing out of your massive post

But wolves can roleblock.

If they can roleblock a potential seer and kill a cleared player, that's win/win. A seer without peeks isn't much of a seer. DUCY?

And again, with so many players, it may be hard to find out the peeks on the first night or two. Lets not act like wolves ALWAYS seer hunt at ALL times no matter what. Especially with a long game like this.

In a 13er, as a wolf you want the seer dead asap. A seer having 2-3 live peeks will often times blow the game wide open. A seer having a peek or two in a 21er isn't as big of a deal. Especially when you can also roleblock.
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 03:28 PM
I kinda wish dyenimator would come back and give us reads
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 03:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by drubell
I was starting with Youngplayer9 to analyze since my mind is still curious about D1 EOD. To start

I don't like his entrance at #148 and I feel that it's bad because of the nature of reading the posts because letting people know you're there, as if he felt he needed to be caution about what and when he posts.

His meta "read" on Zayana at #158 is ultimately useless because he makes it based on what I assume is voicechat, whereas people speak and write differently.

#185 has some interesting tension with filthy and I want to look more into whether or not this has any follow up later on in the game.

I think I'm going to look through filthy instead since he's made a lot of vote noise and to be honest my best way to get wolf tells is through finding inconsistencies.
It's not voicechat, it's skypechat. We voice sometimes to play family feud and stuff... we play ww on there sometimes, though I don't recall off hand if I played ww with yp on there. It's mostly random typed chat.

since the formatting is all messed up i am not sure what you were trying to say, but i went back and read OTI since he only has 7 posts it was super easy.

he hasn't participated in any way. he blatantly admits sponging yesterday AND today. he openly admits to not participating. i really don't see OTI wolf playing this. i think OTI is a villager. sad to say a villager who isn't helping, but still a villager.

so you shouldn't clear larue for this. and it's suspicious that you mentioning clearing him for this. please don't make me start to attack you again this game[/QUOTE]
He wasn't clearing larue, he was clearing dru.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LaRue05
since the formatting is all messed up i am not sure what you were trying to say, but i went back and read OTI since he only has 7 posts it was super easy.

he hasn't participated in any way. he blatantly admits sponging yesterday AND today. he openly admits to not participating. i really don't see OTI wolf playing this. i think OTI is a villager. sad to say a villager who isn't helping, but still a villager.

so you shouldn't clear larue for this. and it's suspicious that you mentioning clearing him for this. please don't make me start to attack you again this game
Huh?? What? Exondo wasn't talking about me he was talking about Mets. I don't know how my name got thrown in here.[/QUOTE]
Hmmmm and who's not paying attention? Exo was talking about mets, but he subbed in your name for Dru. You know I'm just harping on this because it's what you are accusing me of. And if you reread me with the mindset that I'm a villager you'll see that I am paying attention, I haven't twisted anything and you have.
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote
05-11-2011 , 03:29 PM
That one post is really screwing up everyone's posts that are referring to it.
Vanilla+ Werewolf :: Naked Gun 33 1/3 game thread Quote

      
m