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12-09-2012 , 09:23 AM
well

I posted everything I wanted to, basically. I think it's probably telcontar. it's not el_timon not only because of what he posted, but because of SIU spew. I really expected much more from binkles because he should know I can't make posts like I did two days ago as a wolf, but that doesn't necessarily mean he is a wolf.

just FWIW if binkles doesn't catch the last wolf tomorrow it means it's him.

anyway, it was kinda weird playing this. i'm not going to defend myself because there's nothing to defend to. GL village
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12-09-2012 , 10:36 AM
ok so I got a plan

I'm the lynch and I accept it. moving forward, I think it's good to lynch binkles' strongest wolf lean as well. if he fails again, LYNCH HIM.

because this is not supposed to be too hard for binkles anyway and I feel he is not supposed to be reading me wolfy here anyway. what I mean is... binkles should be held responsible for this lynch more than other players. because binkles knows more of my villa and wolf games than anyone else on POG.

also if anyone wants to go over some stuff in the game I'm up for it.
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12-09-2012 , 10:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hardcoreUFO
ok so I got a plan

I'm the lynch and I accept it. moving forward, I think it's good to lynch binkles' strongest wolf lean as well. if he fails again, LYNCH HIM.

because this is not supposed to be too hard for binkles anyway and I feel he is not supposed to be reading me wolfy here anyway. what I mean is... binkles should be held responsible for this lynch more than other players. because binkles knows more of my villa and wolf games than anyone else on POG.

also if anyone wants to go over some stuff in the game I'm up for it.
i think if binkles is still alive at final 3, he should be the automatic lynch cause the last wolf would be crazy to leave him alive. Having said that, if he is the villager, he's getting nightkilled tonight or tomorrow because he is super clear from making the case on shipitup on day 1, when he didnt need to be making attention on wolves so early. Its also not something binkles does as a wolf in my experience and to prove this, I actually went back and find the last slow game where binkles,luckay and ship were all wolves and he did nothing of the sort. he defended his wolf bros as frustrated villagers and made cases for getting villagers lynched. Not so here for me though when you consider these two post from binkles here on day 1 ::

Quote:
Originally Posted by captain binkles
I know my post was role neutral

Mets called it villagery

so what do you make of Mets calling it villagery? is it wolfy? is it villagery? was he being sarcastic? why highlight it at all?



I think your vote on anarchist was forced, which is kinda ironic given you said his vote was forced

I think it also didn't really consider lkj's role much

the whole exchange just read awkward

like jim said tho, it's page 1, slow game, pretty high PoR, I think your last post just then about your head not really being in the game yet was better too

just keep reading, explaining your thought processes, etc. and you can't go wrong
Quote:
Originally Posted by captain binkles
I don't think I did, but maybe I'm going crazy

I remember your meta post on SIU though so we can start there

You basically said that SIU forces the action a bit as a wolf, rather than as a villager where he's more likely to derp around in a slightly more random manner

I don't really disagree with that, I can tone clear him for stuff like that a reasonable amount of the time

However SIU is also very aware of that meta, you've talked about it a fair amount, I know you brought it up a ton in that slow game where soah won at f3.

So the way you went about it a game or two ago, well you've almost certainly 'tapped the glass' a bit, so to speak

So here SIU makes a few fairly casual posts to start, which is good

then he makes what I consider to be a 'forced' vote on Anarchist, which is the natural progression of his wolf meta, trying to be more relaxed but still feeling the need to vote early and get on the front foot

then he responds to globe voting him with the sarcastic eyeroll, which I think is also kinda wolfy in a toney manner, I think as a wolf that's an easy/likely response from him, as a villager he can make that response but I think the spectrum for possible responses is wider

can you explain why you think his vote on Anarchist was villagery?
if they are w/w, then this is crazy to do and doesnt look like something binkles would do to me in this situation. He would ignore it or try to say it reads "frustrated villager" rather than wolf.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/59...32/index6.html

^^^ that's the game I referencing.

http://www.checkmywwstats.com/index....0Outer%20Space

^^ ww database stats and reference for wolves/villas.

Binkles pretty much never a wolf imo.
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12-09-2012 , 10:56 AM
I don't plan to worry about Binkles unless I find myself at a F3 with him. At a guess both of us will be dead before the game goes to F3, though.
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12-09-2012 , 10:58 AM
Ufo, what are the posts you couldn't make as a wolf? Sorry if you're already explained this, but I can't remember.
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12-09-2012 , 10:59 AM
We should probably wait for Felix to show up and say his piece before maj'ing anyone.
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12-09-2012 , 11:00 AM
yeah I'm clearing binkles for it, although the fact that SIU acknowledges binkles can soulread him effectively MIGHT make binkles way more willing to push him early. otherwise it would be a lot like duckburg vanilla where he went wishy washy on SIU and SIU got lynched d2 anyway.

also it's weird that SIU just entered the game, did nothing and got lynched. it's a bit unusual of him not to get overly loud. which I feel WAS antispew but I think someone told SIU to go into antispew mode and not be super aggressive with people cause that would spew a bunch of fellas villagers. you know?

anyway binkles needs to be held accountable for this.
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12-09-2012 , 11:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by El_Timon
I finally got to the point where Telco makes a case against me. As I said above, I think he's a villager, but I think his case on me made no sense.


The first part is the fact that I jumped on Luckay's wagon and he saw that as if I was a wolf getting on the buss early. Fine, I have said in a previous post that the fact that he said the same thing about SIU is villagery. However, my biggest problem with his case is the follow-up post:


He quoted two posts, one where I say a meta read on SIU is not conclusive yet I vote him right away and the other where he implies that I chose not to answer Globe's question.

First, my SIU vote didn't come out of nowhere. In my first few posts of d2 I say LKJ/SIU were my wolf candidates.



Then in the evening after Binkles asked me to "free flow" I said this:

So as you can see I'm thinking that LKJ is not likely a wolf because he's going after one of the clearest villagers.


I think this post was directed at Globe, answering the question TElco said I wasn't answering.


I follow up to that post saying why I thought LKJ/SIU were my preferred wagons.


Then I noted a mets/SIU interaction that looked bad for SIU.


And then I quoted the game Tappo had referred to earlier.


So, I vote SIU, but the vote didn't come out of nowhere as Telco implied.
My apologies on the globe thing timo - I must have completely misread those interactions or brainfarted or something
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12-09-2012 , 11:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tappokone
Ufo, what are the posts you couldn't make as a wolf? Sorry if you're already explained this, but I can't remember.
the friday posts where I get overly confused about who the last wolf is and go 'no, it's tappo', 'wait no it isn't, 'wait it's telc', 'wait it's el timon', 'wait...' I just don't have that progression as a wolf ever. I'm a lot more solid in my leans as a wolf.

but like, I realise there is no coming back from this, because even me saying there is no coming back from this can be something I would make as a wolf trying to release some heat by appearing like a defeated villager etc. what I would hardly accept is that binkles is coming here and saying 'oh you're so wolfy hardcore, why are you so wolfy?' because that's garbage and he knows it's garbage because HE knows my wolf game.

everyone else can put me way down in their reads list. they're cool . you guys don't know my wolf game well, I've done a bunch of things that appeared as if I knew luckay and SIU were wolves etc. and there's the whole D1 TWTBAW play which I just did excessively as a wolf in the last game lol. so, yeah, why would anyone (but binkles) ever clear me?

I like that annie is clearing me though. you rock, br0
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12-09-2012 , 11:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by El_Timon
Looking at this list, I highly doubt that anyone in the red/orange category is a wolf. Mets explained how he was setting himself up in case he had to bus Luckay, but I doubt he'd have the other wolf in the same category (or in red). Having anarchist in the orange category just above luckay was convenient because Annie had early votes and conceivably could be a good CFD target.
Dont underestimate ship's ability to bus people. for research purposes, I went looking back at the last game where ship was a wolf in a slow game and got this one ::

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/59...32/index4.html

He was a wolf with Binkles/Daisoujou and Luckayluck(lol again!)

in his very first reads list which was 60 posts in, he gives binkles a neutral read

and then about 300 posts in, makes this post about fellow wolf Daisoujou.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShipItUp
I've been thinking about Daisou and the more I do the more happy I am with a wagon on him. He hasn't really done anything at all except throw out 2 reads, and while his read on Hardcore was something that I thought was villagery at the time, I now don't think Hardcore is a wolf so that really doesn't hold a lot of merit anymore and definitely isn't enough for me to defend him. I feel like putting pressure on him definitely can't hurt and if he doesn't start contributing more and showing he's a villager I'm completely fine with him going.
i get the impression of his wolfgame in that game that he could have literally anyone anywhere and that he does give an honest assessment of his teammates. Unfortunately we dont have any day 2 posting to go with this because he was subbed out afterwards, but I would use the reads list for a guideline on where he has friend/foe
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12-09-2012 , 11:10 AM
*wouldnt use the reads list..... that should read
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12-09-2012 , 11:10 AM
Feeling pretty good about clearing tappokone based on binkles' case, and I have reasons for thinking binkles is villa too.

If probably go hardcore or lkj right now. Maybe anarchist.

And I nee to reread Felix
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12-09-2012 , 11:12 AM
Tappo,

I mentioned ship yesterday. Said I could vote him for reasons others had said.

And I had to leave so I basically sponged Mets before I had to go
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12-09-2012 , 11:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hardcoreUFO
the friday posts where I get overly confused about who the last wolf is and go 'no, it's tappo', 'wait no it isn't, 'wait it's telc', 'wait it's el timon', 'wait...' I just don't have that progression as a wolf ever. I'm a lot more solid in my leans as a wolf.
The issue there is that there was discussion of how you're not flipping your reads like that prior to you doing it. It's a villager tell, I agree, but I doubt it's something you can't mimick if you're told that's what people want to see.

Quote:
but like, I realise there is no coming back from this, because even me saying there is no coming back from this can be something I would make as a wolf trying to release some heat by appearing like a defeated villager etc.
Yeah, plus it's in keeping with how a wolf who's about to lose, but doesn't want to give up would act.
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12-09-2012 , 11:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by El_Timon
More about Hardcore's wolf read (or lackthereof) of SIU:

Notice that he doesn't say why SIU is wolfy, but instead that SIU/LKJ are v/w probably and that SIU must be the wolf because "LKJ said something yesterday that I liked". That's a terrible reason for calling someone a wolf.I obviously didn't call SIU a wolf because I had LKJ as a villager. if you read the entire thing I posted on friday (which I think nobody did otherwise they wouldn't be braindeads calling me a wolf for this) you'll see I said SIU and LKJ are not w/w because of a post LKJ made where he both votes luckay and says 'SIU gets a long look tomorrow'. it's too much bussing to be bussing imo. and I didn't say SIU was a wolf because LKJ was a villager. I saw some good LKJ's posts and I saw some pretty bad SIU's posts. I thought there was a wolf there because both were wolfy D1, especially late. you know? that's not really weird at all it's not a lack of wolf reads. what else do you want from me?




I quoted Tappo's post because of Hardcore's response. Again, a lazy read as "SIU is probably a wolf for that". Because of a meta read where he called another wolf out for not posting? and then if that's the reason then it wouldn't make sense given that he says that SIU changed his meta a lot.no, you [redacted], because SIU was softposting. jesus did ANYONE read me? I said a gazillion times SIU was softposting and this is not something he usually does at all as a wolf. softposting has NOTHING to do with the way he addressed luckay. softposting is easy, changing how you progress your reads on fellow wolfbros isn't.
I needed to respond to this just because it's pretty bad IMO.
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12-09-2012 , 11:20 AM
I did find that sequence villagery fwiw Hardcore

just not villagery enough, and Tappo made a good point that I probably tipped my hand a bit w/r/t what I find villagery from you

also if you're the wolf then you really wouldn't know who to push right now

I really really theoretically hate the 'zomg lynch binkles at f5/f3' thing because we're turning nightkills into a huge levelling game now and it just turns to aids when I'm entirely out of my wolf range (see: detective conan).

I don't rly mind here b/c I'm confident the game ends today most of the time, but just as a point, it really ties back to what I said earlier
Slow Vanilla (PoR) Werewolf: Pop Songs! Quote
12-09-2012 , 11:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tappokone
The issue there is that there was discussion of how you're not flipping your reads like that prior to you doing it. It's a villager tell, I agree, but I doubt it's something you can't mimick if you're told that's what people want to see.



Yeah, plus it's in keeping with how a wolf who's about to lose, but doesn't want to give up would act.


yeah I know. I just don't think binkles should be reading me wrong here particularly.
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12-09-2012 , 11:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tappokone
We should probably wait for Felix to show up and say his piece before maj'ing anyone.
completely agree.

I would say we shouldnt maj anyone at all until near EOD tonight. Give everyone a chance.


Actually, give me a chance too, because I have to go to my niece's birthday party in 30 minutes and re-reading everyone is not getting me any closer to figuring out who the last wolf is.
Slow Vanilla (PoR) Werewolf: Pop Songs! Quote
12-09-2012 , 11:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Telcontar
in his very first reads list which was 60 posts in, he gives binkles a neutral read

and then about 300 posts in, makes this post about fellow wolf Daisoujou.

...

i get the impression of his wolfgame in that game that he could have literally anyone anywhere and that he does give an honest assessment of his teammates. Unfortunately we dont have any day 2 posting to go with this because he was subbed out afterwards, but I would use the reads list for a guideline on where he has friend/foe
As I recall, Ship tried defending Daisoujou a bit in the early going, but got frustrated with him when he didn't post as much as Ship would have liked. Notably he still made no move to lynch Daisou.
Slow Vanilla (PoR) Werewolf: Pop Songs! Quote
12-09-2012 , 11:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by captain binkles
I did find that sequence villagery fwiw Hardcore

just not villagery enough, and Tappo made a good point that I probably tipped my hand a bit w/r/t what I find villagery from you

also if you're the wolf then you really wouldn't know who to push right now

I really really theoretically hate the 'zomg lynch binkles at f5/f3' thing because we're turning nightkills into a huge levelling game now and it just turns to aids when I'm entirely out of my wolf range (see: detective conan).

I don't rly mind here b/c I'm confident the game ends today most of the time, but just as a point, it really ties back to what I said earlier
it won't.

if not me, then who is the wolf? you gotta have another candidate.

also bolded is wrong. I know how incredibly villagery that progression was for me. you needed to know this too.

and I don't really care about turning this into a massive levelling game because you need to find the last wolf and you didn't yet. staying alive isn't bad if it helps you figure the game out, this is supposed to be relatively easy to POE down although the amount of antispew was enormous here.
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12-09-2012 , 11:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by captain binkles
I'll do some proper work tomorrow and make sure we get things right, fwiw I think Hardcore's posting today has been okay, particularly that "oh idk who the last wolf is oh wait I do oh wait I don't" progression. I'll be interested to see where it goes.

One other thing I'll say is that while villagers should keep making reads and being honest, be prepared to stay flexible too if we mislynch today. Now that the seer and the potential peek is dead the last wolf can start planning for endgame and making optimal nightkills based on reads. So always reconsider all the data available.
I guess I didn't make it all that clear in the bolded

but fwiw in the future I'd put the whole "zomg lynch binkles at ML+1" discussion in the "things that probably shouldn't be talked about until we get there" category
Slow Vanilla (PoR) Werewolf: Pop Songs! Quote
12-09-2012 , 11:25 AM
I

WILL

DIE

TODAY

so yeah I'll mention this. sorry.
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12-09-2012 , 11:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hardcoreUFO
it won't.

if not me, then who is the wolf? you gotta have another candidate.

also bolded is wrong. I know how incredibly villagery that progression was for me. you needed to know this too.

and I don't really care about turning this into a massive levelling game because you need to find the last wolf and you didn't yet. staying alive isn't bad if it helps you figure the game out, this is supposed to be relatively easy to POE down although the amount of antispew was enormous here.
If not you I'd prob be looking at globe/annie tomorrow
Slow Vanilla (PoR) Werewolf: Pop Songs! Quote
12-09-2012 , 11:26 AM
I have never been in that spot before where I'm the lock last wolf but I'm not and I'm doing my best not to get all crossnerdy with everyone. please don't lecture me on what not to post on top of it, no matter how much it upsets you heh.
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12-09-2012 , 11:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by globetrotter
Tappo,

I mentioned ship yesterday. Said I could vote him for reasons others had said.

And I had to leave so I basically sponged Mets before I had to go
Yeah, I quoted the posts in question. The point is that you mostly pushed other options and only commented on Ship when there were already four people on his wagon and two others expressing a willingness to vote for him.
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