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07-26-2019 , 10:18 AM

#201

JMurder3

not god, probably jebus

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 53,649

Quote:

Originally Posted by eyebooger

Not true. I'm just confused by his aggression. It's just that simple.

What's to be confused about? If I'm a liar you're never thinking about lynching him anyway.

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:21 AM

#202

toedder

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 4,915

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

You're confusing me. What does 1/11 and 3/11 mean

Well, JM3 claims to be the gossip. There is one possible gossip in the 11 possible roles.

JM3 claims that one of his clues is Donny=wolf. There are three possible wolf roles in the 11 possible total roles.

As a watcher you receive the watchee's true role and another role.

If we assume true rand() for the other role, then we can assume a 3-fold likelihood of a false positive if peeking the wolf claim than peeking the gossip claim.

At least that's how I understand this.

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:22 AM

#203

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 53,722

Lynch all liars is tough when there's a deviant. I haven't read thread closely enough but no one has stuck out immediately as having deviant equity.

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:23 AM

#204

eyebooger

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 59,950

Quote:

Originally Posted by toedder

Not sure it works like that. Because then if you watched a true wolf there would be a chance of getting a "x is either a wolf or a wolf".

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:24 AM

#205

toedder

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 4,915

Like if JM3 was lying and you'd watch him and get a false gossip result, that would just be incredible run-bad and there'd be nothing we could ever do about it.

If JM3 was lying and you'd watch Donny and we'd get a false wolf result, it would still be run-bad, but there would've been something we could've done about it (watch JM instead of Donny and have a three fold decrease of this situation happening).

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:25 AM

#206

toedder

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 4,915

Quote:

Originally Posted by eyebooger

Not sure it works like that. Because then if you watched a true wolf there would be a chance of getting a "x is either a wolf or a wolf".

The same still holds true if we subtract "identical" roles. I don't know how else it is supposed to work, I don't think the mod will just pick a role how he sees fit. That would obviously be terrible.

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:25 AM

#207

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 53,722

Quote:

Originally Posted by toedder

JM3 claims that one of his clues is Donny=wolf. There are three possible wolf roles in the 11 possible total roles.

Sounds like a surefire Donny watch then. If Donny turns up wolf, then JM likely telling truth, which means eyebooger likely lying. Obv lynch Donny and eb probably deviant.

If Donny isn't wolf, what was JMs other peek?

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:26 AM

#208

toedder

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 4,915

Quote:

Originally Posted by toedder

I see. It wouldn't hold true, if the roles were condensed prior to randing. OK. But in that case both solutions are equivalent. So we're never worse of by watching JM3.

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:26 AM

#209

toedder

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 4,915

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

CC = deviant

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:27 AM

#210

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 53,722

Sounds like Toedder doesn't want a Donny watch cause could confirm Donny = tracker and Toedder = liar

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:29 AM

#211

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,878

I still like watching Donnie.

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:30 AM

#212

toedder

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 4,915

By all means watch Donny. That should confirm Donny = W.

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:31 AM

#213

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,878

Quote:

Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch

I still like watching Donnie.

This is of course unrelated to the game. Its more of a "through his window at night type thing".

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:32 AM

#214

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 53,722

Watching Donny in 10 minutes unless there's a valid objection

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:32 AM

#215

JMurder3

not god, probably jebus

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 53,649

I'm leaving it up to you guys. I'm not 100% sure Don is a wolf, but based on my results it's very likely. Even if CC is the deviant, Don would still have good wolf equity imo.

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:33 AM

#216

eyebooger

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 59,950

I think JM3 is the better watch, but I'm okay if you want to watch Donny.

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:35 AM

#217

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,878

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMurder3

I'm leaving it up to you guys. I'm not 100% sure Don is a wolf, but based on my results it's very likely. Even if CC is the deviant, Don would still have good wolf equity imo.

This is a bit not like JM, so I'm suspicious. But I still think we stick with our plans. However, we need to consider the world where Donnie/EB is correct, and HN, JM, and Toe are all bad.

Will have to think on that one a bit.
Might not leave enough bad people left since one of the 3 'villagers' still has to be bad.

And if EB is correct, then there cant be 3 wolves.

This is hard to think about while at work lol

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:35 AM

#218

Donat3llo

Faster Than Ski Patrol

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 23,120

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

Cc deviant so if they're telling the truth then cc deviant and toe either tc or wolf

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:35 AM

#219

Donat3llo

Faster Than Ski Patrol

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 23,120

Quote:

Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch

This is of course unrelated to the game. Its more of a "through his window at night type thing".

I hope you enjoyed the show, I even slapped my own ass midstroke

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:38 AM

#220

JMurder3

not god, probably jebus

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 53,649

Quote:

Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch

I don't think I should steer the watch. It doesn't much matter to me. I know I'm telling the truth, so to me Don is the better watch, but it doesn't matter what I know. It matters what the village as a whole knows.

If there is doubt if I'm telling the truth, that's fine & I can be watched. Eb is an outted liar for reasons I've stated, but yeah. It's not my call.

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:39 AM

#221

eyebooger

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 59,950

Quote:

Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch

There can still be 4 bad guys. 2x wolf plus TC and deviant.

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:39 AM

#222

Ronny Mahoni

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 4,452

House why are you clear?

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:43 AM

#223

Donat3llo

Faster Than Ski Patrol

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 23,120

Fwiw, watching me and subsequently having confidence in me being tracker doesn't get us closer to lynching a wolf.

Jm3 can still be telling the truth when I am watched as tracker.

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:45 AM

#224

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 53,722

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ronny Mahoni

House why are you clear?

obv clear in my mind, and more clear than anyone else in thread mechanically.

yes, i could be wolf/deviant and have just luckbox claimed a role that no one else claimed, but we have much more to work with in thread than making pure speculative reasoning.

everyone else has a possible lie attached to them which i posted in a previous post.