atak, fwiw, due to the manner of your dealings with me, you would be the last person I'd vote off if it were a neutral ev decision.

LC goes cheetah to guarantee another day.

atadog,

We have no agreements, you playing how you want would not earn my enmity.

I think it would be silly to let LC pass anyone, but zebra zebra keeps you out front (albeit much closer).

Heck, you could go giraffe with hitch and cue, but here is the danger with all of those strategies:

Cheating on the agreement from one of your colleagues is extremely profitable. Part of the reason for having disproportionate retribution, which would stretch to other games (again non team games) is that often defecting is a coup de grace, and not retaliating later basically leaves the infraction unpunished.

I am sure that between you hitch and cue, you would not have a problem with honoring your word. You would probably have to put a all vote fully and in sync clause in there in the case of democracy. But I am not the one who has to be sure, since I am not a party to the deal. (Also, I might not be sure if I was, having been defected on once already).

This tells me I should go warthog today.

Then you would drop down to third, and not be able to recover I think, unless LC went lion to block the other two.

ROFL. Not going Lion, sorry.

Thank you -- but fwiw I expect you to take your best shot, as I will, which means more than looking at the scores. If you decide that dictatoring me is in your best interest even if the scores don't prove that, I have no problem with that. We've each been playing to win the whole time.

In a truly neutral EV situation, I will of course extend similar courtesy to you and to cue, as each of you has been completely forthright with me throughout the game. But there are few truly neutral EV situations.

Honestly, it scares me how well everyone plays on here. No running over people like I used to do at Risk, ___ years ago. (No, not telling.)

I don't think that's true, though you can decide on your own -- I know the two of us both going warthog is giving the game away. Even if hitch is determined to dictator you over me, I don't think it changes your equity much, because if he gets dictator you still probably don't win, as he can safely go cheetah after that if he predicst what the other two are doing (and fnord at least would say out loud, as his best chance to ensure a LC loss would be to ensure a hitch win).

This may be wrong, but even if it is I'm pretty sure warthog kills your chances. It'd be pretty likely either the lionhunters would outstrip you or hitch would retain a lead while our (yours and my) tie would be broken and you'd be hitch's best target as soon as he had a shot at you.

Put my vote in, I'm going lion.

Actually, that may be wrong -- that might break things open for you. I'm not being disingenuous -- let me think. Very strange -- it might be that hitch's (almost certainly honest) statement that he wouldn't vote me off is the worst possible thing for my chances.

If you warthog and LC warthogs:

(84) atakdog -
(73) cueball -
(60) fnord -
(92) hitch -
(60) lastchance -

I die in dictatorship, because he really has no choice -- thereafter, you may get to use fnord's vendetta to your advantage. Democracy is interesting and hard to predict. It's actually even harder if LC goes hippo instead, and gets a vote. And in Darwinism we lose one of the back two, and I don't think you have much of a chance but again it's hard to predict.

If LC breaks up the lion hunt:

(71) atakdog -
(73) cueball -
(60) fnord -
(79) hitch -
(58) lastchance -

I like your chances here. I'm still dead in dictatorship because you're safe. Democracy is weird again. LC's dead in Darwinism, so he probably won't do this.

And if LC goes cheetah, as he has said he would:

(84) atakdog -
(73) cueball -
(44) fnord -
(91) hitch -
(58) lastchance -

Again I'm dead in dictatorship, again I don't know what's up in democracy, and with Darwinism it's an odd crapshoot but I don't like your chances much.

All in all, there are quite a few unknowns if you go hog, because with symmetry broken it's unclear what happens. It is clear that I'm dead a third of the time, so obviously I don't like it. If you stay lion, I do believe your chances are still 25%, because if we get democracy we obviously will be able to vote hitch off (except in the odd case that LC goes hippo or something and those three could form an extremely unlikely bloc to nail one of us).

Ugh. I don't know.

And for what it's worth I have sent my lion PM, and don't see changing it. Still looking at this though.

fnord, I will vote LC in a democracy.

Hitch, unless atak/cue are UNBELIEVABLY stupid, I imagine you're dead in a democracy.

If we both warthog:

(73) atakdog -
(73) cueball -
(44 or 60) fnord -
(92) hitch -
(58 or 60) lastchance -

That's a huge lead for hitch. LC and fnord could vote him off if democracy hits, but fnord has said he won't do that (and he'd be annoyed at us). We could go lion every day thereafter, but hitch could just go lion himself and lock in a win, I think.

If I went hog and you went lion, it's as above, with a difficult-to-calculate chance for the one going warthog. I still think lion/lion works better, but I see your problem.

Only if we're both voting. Which is why cue (or me) warthogging is bad.

Right. So don't warthog, and don't get any points, K? *grin*

OH, LC, I realize that you are by no means dead yet. There are no bad players in the game at this point, and everyone (possibly excepting fnord) has a chance.

Yeah, but I don't think you guys can afford to warthog here, especially b/c democ at any point is so good for you.

If the three leaders each lion:

(71) atakdog -
(71) cueball -
(44 or 60) fnord -
(79) hitch -
(58 or 60) lastchance -

Democracy: Hitch says he'll vote LC. So will fnord, I assume. That means if LC is an available target, who gets booted depends on what he does. Lovely. If LC is not available, the rational play by the two of us is to vote hitch off.

Dictatorship: In theory one of atak and cue is gone.

Darwinism: fnord, or fnord/L combo. The one left standing is close enough to do plenty of damage, but I like the atak/cue chances unless someone goes rampaging against. Randomization may be necessary.

I will boot hitch off if I live, of course, because otherwise I'm getting voted off, and it's correct anyway.

Oddly, there's a cute scenario wherein LC and fnord can ally against atak/cue, if hitch gets voted off. Have to think that one through. May require one of atak/cue to go cheetah tomorrow if we get there -- I assume we'd rand() for it, because there's probably not time to fix it the next day with certainty, but that could be wrong.

Me too! (I know, shocking.)

I, personally, am stunned.

OK, I give up. Some scenarios are more likely than others, but it depends on the whims of fate, and on some plays I can't predict. I am going lion. Cueball, I think you should too, and if so I will certainly remain partnered with you -- but if we partner and go warthog, we're dead.

Hitch, as I've said, I'm playing to win, but if it I am theoretically in equipoise between you and one of fnord/LC, it won't be hard (i.e., in that situation you're fine).

I'm hunting lion. Tomorrow is tomorrow.

Ata, I'm going warthog because we don't have a parity situation anymore. I hope you understand.