You forget that it is possible to split votes, or not submit a vote. More possibilities, for now and later.

There actually is a big advantage to eliminating him, I think. If democracy arises when we're at 5, I think we win. If Darwinism does, then we win if it's democracy the final time and one of us has a shot if it's dictatorship.

When I say "we" win I mean we can guarantee 50:50 for each of us, if we don't ever break the pact.

But I've made clear that I will break no agreement nor rescind any offer.

Ok, assume you both go into the final 3 behind hitch. You have a 1/6th chance of winning there.

Assume you go into the final 3 ahead of hitch (or me, or whoever). You have a ONE-HALF chance of winning there.

Now, how are you going to pass hitch? Simply, you need to be able to get him to 0, while also increasing your points. You cannot do this while stating what animal you are hunting in thread. I believe it is impossible, because hitch can react to your moves.

If hitch does things like cheetah every turn, sure you can go cheetah-lion and lion-cheetah, but Hitch can simply counter this by going LION instead of Cheetah (and with his lead, he'll still have the advantage, plus you've got to be worried about someone messing with you a little).

So, any communication here is just -EV. There is nothing that will increase your chances to that point besides going cat, not stating which cat you are going for, and praying to the luck gods that wins happen. This is your best chance of gaining the LEAD, and getting a better than 1/6th chance of winning in the final 3.

I'm not voting this democracy.

Oh, come on.

Lame. Lame. Lame.

Cue, if you're not going to vote, obv, I'm getting eliminated, and I should just shut up here, but let me calc.

I can also greatly benefit you if you let me live, because I can king-make. But really, I would just prefer my rand() plan while letting me live. (come on, plz?).

And well, I mean, if I'm not king-making, then fnord/OR/Zeturd definitely can as well.

At this point, LC has to convince me to vote at all. He can do so only be giving me a plan for going forward that I think constitutes an alliance. And I have agreed not to vote against (or dictator) hitch, and I won't go back on that; I'm also not planning on agreeing to take him out indirectly, because he was quite upfront in dealing with me. He'll know that I'm hoping to wind up with a shot to beat him, but he's trying to do the same.

Cue, depending on how this goes I think we're in moderately good shape. With favorable turns of events we may even get as much equity as hitch, though I doubt it. If we break up, I'm pretty sure we're dead, so even if we hadn't agreed to stick together I'd be arguing hard for it now.

LC: why should cueball and I vote tonight?

All I saw was some randomness or a 1/6 shot of ata/me winning. This is not good enough.

^^ cross-post. LC, do your calculating. I'm just trying to win, while keeping all promises.

I mean, this is the PD/Chicken part of the game. People can hurt you more than you can benefit yourself. At any situation, you have to be worried about whatever fnord/OR/Zeturd decide to do.

And if you ally with me and vote off Fnord/OR/Zeturd here, I'll remember it down the line.

Threats about actions in other games is lame. But it's your right.

I'm sure Fnord will help us out for a couple of rounds to jazz stuff up.

Not other games. This game. This game. I'll remember it down the line THIS GAME if you help me out here.

How do you help ata/cue this game if you live tonight and possibly another?

Yeah, Fnord would help you. Dunno about OR/Zeturd. But that's what you have to calculate.

If you announce hunts in thread, Hitch can counter by Lion/Cheetahing at the correct moments. Assume one of you goes lion, one of you goes cheetah. Hitch can counter by going Lion. You make up 3 points every two turns, and it's close to enough, but dictatorship/darwinism screws you, and you can't vote him off until the final 5, though sure, you could be lame and not vote (like you're doing now), though then there would be no reason for Hitch to not dictator you.

And if someone goes cheetah in the above, like Zeturd might, I mean, you can't make up any ground there. I mean, sure fnord helps you, but if ZeTurd/OR want to gamble, then you just can't pass hitch depending on how the game goes.

I mean, you're going to be under the mercy of me/fnord/OR/Zeturd throughout the rest of the game. Don't kid yourself.

By leaning a little more (just a little more) to whatever hitch decides to hunt, unless, of course, he doesn't state it, which is obv possible.

For the record, this is not what I plan to do. As I said before, hitch was clear about the alliance (and it was worded differently), so I will not through inaction cause him to be eliminated before our agreement is up. Again, it would be in my interest, but I won't do it.

The situation with you is different. I actually worded my offer pretty carefully -- I had to go back and make sure I had it right. But again, I will ally if we come up with a good agreement, even though the best thing for me right now is to let you go down.

Cue and I will probably have to play with some lion/cheetah switching to have the best chance against hitch, but that's down the road.

One problem, LC, is that you probably won't make a clear and explicit offer to us now, and going based on your leanings just doesn't seem like the safest plan in the world.

Incidentally, in the next game I will be revealing votes publicly, unless someone works hard to convince me not to. Alliances are fine, but I don't like the idea that people can break them without it being known.

Gg to him, definitely, regardless here. And I certainly don't want to punish him for trusting that I'd be helpful; it's sort of the prisoner's dilemna in reverse. I want everyone to know that taking my offers is a good thing.

The problem is just figuring out exactly how to swing it, without doing something silly like going hippo...

FMP

Well, this is my best offer. We would all go Cheetah/Lion the next 2 days, work it out so no one gains points on anyone else, or anything like that, and then in teh F4, just have Cheetahs and Lions randoming FTW.

Something like this.

Now, assume you don't want to do this. You have to think hard, because depending on what OR/Zeturd decide to do, you're going to have a few problems.

If Zeturd/OR decide to go Cheetah every round, well, this poses a pretty big problem for you, because you have to stop him from getting Cheetah at some point, and also manage to keep up with Hitch, who would be going Lion every round probably, and in that fairly likely scenario, you can't do both.

You have to beg and pray they don't go Cheetah, and well, actually, they're doing something very active and tough for you two to deal with by just aggressively going Cheetah, because as long as Hitch gets his Lion points, he'll be fine.

My plan is a little screwy, sure, but if Hitch can react to w/e you're doing, you basically need every single one of Fnord/OR/Zeturd to want to hand you/atak the win instead of going Cheetah and possibly forcing an advantage.

So, if I get eliminated, Hitch should go Lion every round.

Fnord/OR/Zeturd could help atak/Cue win here, through going either warthog or lion, but this would let atak/cue cakewalk.

By being aggressive and going cheetah one could LEAPFROG into 4th place, close enough to get ahead, and then force an aggressive game in the F4 to win. At the very least, one in the F4 has powers to screw with others (and bone atak/cue).

I would suggest that you not state what you are hunting as well, because this can lead to great advantage.

Ata, what do we do tomorrow if LC goes today?
What do we do if one of the others go today?

fwiw, I made the voting private precisely to encourage players to play for themselves and to diminish the benefit of alliances