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Old 05-07-2009, 05:50 PM   #2626
Karak
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

im a villager. if i wasnt i'd be posting a lot more, haha. that said i think the best vote atm is jobeen
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Old 05-07-2009, 05:59 PM   #2627
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9pm EOD)

here's a D1 post by ILB:


Quote:
Originally Posted by I_Like_Beer View Post
That's cool if you all want to vote me out today. That way I can then get subbed back in as something more interesting than villager.

Vote Beer for the Win!

BTW, when is end of day one? in 3.5 hours or 27.5 hours?
I wanna go over why he made this post, because at first i was convinced he was a villager but now I'm thinking he's on a different level and hence that he would do this as a SK or wolf.


in the SSNL game, i started a weak wagon on ILB on D1. Note this was his first game. His response to the wagon starting to roll on him was very interesting. He said things like "anyone else who votes for me at this point is a WOLF." there's some other stuff he said too but i need to go back to that thread and find it.

after he said that stuff, people were all of a sudden VERY sure that he was a villager (he was a villager, btw) because it's the sorta thing that you would expect a newbie villager to kinda just be pissed off and say or something.

One of my reads is that ILB noticed that if he does something like that early, people automatically think he's just a pissed off villager. I can see a lot of similarities between what he said in the SSNL game and what he said d1 of this game.

The difference, of course, is that this time ILB knows (thinks) that people will respond to him saying stuff like that by assuming that he's vanillager. I think that if he were SK, he would be running through things in his head that would help clear him, and this would be one of them.
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:06 PM   #2628
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

here are posts by ILB over time where he keeps awkwardly bringing up the SK and accusing people. again, I believe that with the level that I think he's on at this point, he would do this as a weird sorta reverse way of diverting attention from himself.

Quote:
Originally Posted by I_Like_Beer View Post
Let's talk about the SK for a minute here.

The Serial Killer wants the Seers alive as long as possible. Especially to the point where they are peeked villager. An even more ideal time, would be when a seer comes out and expressly says "These are my Picks: N1: xxxx N2: xxxx" etc... so that we don't have to try and interpret Dead Seers peeks in past posts.

Both Seers already being dead is bad for the SK. because now that means they have most likely not been peeked. The SK wants the Seers to peek them villager. Preferably with as many other peeked villagers still alive as possible. Because with the Seers dead, the Wolves will probably start NKing all of the confirmed, peeked villagers. So we don't really need to worry about Peeked villagers right now (Who do we think all of the peeked villagers are anyways? Brian? Goofy? BitchiBee?)
Quote:
Originally Posted by I_Like_Beer View Post
Also, I am in favor of lynching Corsakh as soon as possible.

We are not going to learn anything else from him. he is never going to vote anymore, because he doesn't want to give away any information.

So, lets Major Vote Corsakh. And then Mr SK: Please be NKing Ilya. Thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by I_Like_Beer View Post
Now lets talk about mdom:

************

GTPitch putting out the idea that if/when Mdom comes up wolf, that he should be cleared. GTPitch planning for the future in case his brother wolf gets lynched before him.




Lots of Mdoms Day1 posts are about the cereal killer. I think he is excited to be the cereal killer.

congratulates himself



Sees that Mburke is super wolfy. This wagon doesn't pick up, so he Night Kills him later on, and guess what? He was right



I then ask Mdom what he likes to eat for breakfast. I am implying that he likes to eat cereal. He obviously doesn't respond, and obviously won't NK me because people will see this post and he'll be dead meat.

Mdom is a smart guy. Hell, I thought he was a damn seer in our last game cause his reads were spot on. His reads in this game have been pretty spot on (see the mburke thing). The SK is finding wolves easily right now. The SK is staying a little bit under the radar. MDom is staying under the radar. Mdom fits the SK profile.

So, in conclusion, I think Mdom really likes to eat Cereal in the morning for breakfast. He eats lots of it. I mean, he just kills the boxes of cereal in the morning. He is a killer of cereal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by I_Like_Beer View Post
I also think that there is a slight possibility that Brian is the SK. (I have more suspicions on someone else though. I'll get to that in a later post)

Yesterday I made a point that the SK wants to peeked by a seer. Brian made a response saying that he thinks that the SK doesn't want to be peeked, and that it's impossible for SK to win if he is peeked. He has some valid points there, and I need to think about it a little more.

But if the SK is peeked along with a bunch of other villagers (to the point where there is a ratio of non-peeked villagers to peeked villagers of 2:1), then the village starts lynching non peeked villagers (To obviously find wolves), wolves NK peeked villagers, and the SK kills other non-peeked villagers (killing non-peeked villagers and wolves {preferably wolves} are good for the SK). He never has to worry about being lynched during the day, just has to dodge the wolves NKs to gain victory. And if all the other wolves are dead, then he can only be killed by lynches, which is easier for him to have control over (because he has no control over the wolves NKs).

So the SK is going to be looking at any and all "peeks" made by people. If he sees a "peek" of him, he is going to NK that person in hopes of killing a seer and validating that he is a peek villager.

What is possible in this game is that Brian saw that Chaser "peeked" him village (Chaser defends him on Day 1 mightly, so it is possible Brian could be Chasers N1 peek), so he NKed him. He in fact was seer, so now Brian can claim he is seer peeked. Of course, he wants the other seer to stay alive as long as possible so that there can be more seer cleared villas. Obviously this isn't the case, so the plan may have backfired. Now the SK wants to get rid of the wolves as quickly as possible so that he doesn't get NKed by them.

So there are two things we need to figure out. Do people think that Chasers N1 peek is Brian?

Also, the wolves know if they killed Chaser or not. If they did not NK him, and it was the SK, then the probability of Brian being the SK goes way up. Only the wolves know this for sure.

So if we believe that Brian was a Chaser peek, and if the wolves did not NK chaser, then Brian being the SK is very high.

We will probably find out the answer to these questions tonight.

The wolves want the SK dead more than we do. If Brian survives the night, then we can conclude that the wolves did the Chaser NK and the probability of Brian being the SK goes way down.

There are my thoughts on that. I think I just confused myself.

I don't neccessarily think that this is the case, but it is a possibility.
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:06 PM   #2629
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

what the hell, at this point I dunno so I'll go with you mdom

unvote

ILB
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:13 PM   #2630
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

The one thing I don't get about ILB is...do you really think he's capable of finding all those wolves??

I mean, you remember in the SSNL game he got seer-hunted because on d1/d2 he twice went after a UTR wolf who hadn't posted, the same way MoneyMatt1 did to Uck Box...and then he came back villa and we were like "wtf, he ACTUALLY tried to start wagons twice on someone with 0 posts as a VILLAGER?????"

And we expect THIS to be the guy who has eliminated like 4 wolves? I dunno, man.
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:15 PM   #2631
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by mdom88 View Post
ILB is the cereal killer.

I have been going over his early posts, and he reaaaaally is seeming like the cereal killer with the way he posts/his tone and based on reads I have of him from previous games. I can go into this in more detail later, for now though look at what happened the past day:

Brian has had ILB on his SK list for a while but hasn't been vocal about it at all. yesterday he said ILB was high on his list but wasn't being loud about it yet. Looks like hte perfect opportunity for ILB to kill brian.

i know that initially i thought that brian was definitely the wolve's NK last night, but after rereading i'm sorta changing my mind. my viewpoint would be helped a lot if we can find something that makes ainex look like the SK to the wolves perhaps, or any other good reasons we can find for the wolves to NK ainex (so we know brian was cereal killer NK):




yesterday i said this line:


at this point in the game, wouldn't it be good for the cereal killer to frame me by killing ILB last night? that way he can set up the lynch of me today which means that
a) he wouldn't be lynched tomorrow
b) a probable villager gets mislynched which balances the game more which im pretty sure the cereal killer wants at this point



i know my second reason is a bit of a stretch, but i encourage everyone to reread ILB. i'll post more about this when i figure out how to convey my reads on him better

I_Like_Beer
I quoted the wrong post from brian

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian View Post
ILB:

tl;dr your post about me.

mdom is high potential to be serial killer. Not sure if I listed him as my next suspect after you/Karak but yeah, he is 3rd on my list.
this is the proper quote.

also one other thing that goes along with my thinking that ILB is doing things that he did in the SSNL game to appear villa: he has been randomly voting jobeen all game every night basically.

do the right thing village.
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:17 PM   #2632
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer View Post
The one thing I don't get about ILB is...do you really think he's capable of finding all those wolves??

I mean, you remember in the SSNL game he got seer-hunted because on d1/d2 he twice went after a UTR wolf who hadn't posted, the same way MoneyMatt1 did to Uck Box...and then he came back villa and we were like "wtf, he ACTUALLY tried to start wagons twice on someone with 0 posts as a VILLAGER?????"

And we expect THIS to be the guy who has eliminated like 4 wolves? I dunno, man.
i think whjoever the SK is, they have been running like electrical jesus anyway. what players currently alive do you think are smart enough to soul read wolves left and right like that?

also i don't think you're giving him enough credit. he does put a lot of time into his decisions and reads over this thread a lot even though it doesn't seem that way based on his posts. (read brian's summary after winning Rookie game Part 2 to confrim this, ILB was wolf there)
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:18 PM   #2633
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

^^^ILB was a wolf with brian that game and brian said ILB was one of the 3 wolves who actually put a lot of time into wolf chat etc.
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:23 PM   #2634
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

And the other thing I really don't like about this is that the 3 posts in a row you made on the subject involve about 4x as much effort as you've put into the rest of your posts this game combined. With the timing, I can't help but feel like you're making a really really hard push at shifting suspicion onto someone who might have outed you, since this only comes after ILB accused you of being the SK.

Not to mention that you completely ate up the d1 posts he made as being posts that ILB would totally make as a villager and defended him very hard early on for the same reasons you're now accusing him of being the SK.

...and lastly, we don't need an ILB wagon if he's the SK. We should make the wolves kill the SK for us.
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:28 PM   #2635
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer View Post
And the other thing I really don't like about this is that the 3 posts in a row you made on the subject involve about 4x as much effort as you've put into the rest of your posts this game combined. With the timing, I can't help but feel like you're making a really really hard push at shifting suspicion onto someone who might have outed you, since this only comes after ILB accused you of being the SK.

Not to mention that you completely ate up the d1 posts he made as being posts that ILB would totally make as a villager and defended him very hard early on for the same reasons you're now accusing him of being the SK.

...and lastly, we don't need an ILB wagon if he's the SK. We should make the wolves kill the SK for us.
1) i am putting so much effort into this wagon because i think there's a very good chance that ILB is SK and i feel like if I don't push this really hard then he will end up winning because no one else currently alive has him anywhere on their radar

2) You realy think that i would be so obvious as to respond to someone's accusal by all of a sudden coming out of the wood work and making my first substantial wagon against them? give me a littttttttttttttle bit of credit, goofball

3) he fooled me at first. after reading more of his posts in this game, and the conclusion of our other game, i am giving him more credit than before = i think he's on level x+1 rather than x = i have completely changed the way that i analyze his earlier posts.
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:29 PM   #2636
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

and feel free to lynch me if i'm wrong about him. at that point i would feel ******ed anyway and wouldn't want to keep trying to read people at this game anymore anyway
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:30 PM   #2637
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer View Post
And the other thing I really don't like about this is that the 3 posts in a row you made on the subject involve about 4x as much effort as you've put into the rest of your posts this game combined. With the timing, I can't help but feel like you're making a really really hard push at shifting suspicion onto someone who might have outed you, since this only comes after ILB accused you of being the SK.

Not to mention that you completely ate up the d1 posts he made as being posts that ILB would totally make as a villager and defended him very hard early on for the same reasons you're now accusing him of being the SK.

...and lastly, we don't need an ILB wagon if he's the SK. We should make the wolves kill the SK for us.
Killing a potential SK is a much better result for the village than killing someone who is like 80% villa (jobeen).
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:31 PM   #2638
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

one other thing about you thinking i'm just shifting suspicion: if I am SK and we mis lynch ILB based on my accusal of him being an impossible role, then you're obviously gonna end up gunning for me either tomorrow or later if i make it that far. so it would be a pretty craptastic job by me to cover myself
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:31 PM   #2639
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

I feel pretty ******ed too but I'm not about to give up

fwiw I read ILB's early posts in that other game you mentioned and it's a total 180 from his posting style in this game + the SSNL game. I don't think you can give him credit for, in this game, being really good at "faking" his SSNL villa style when he failed utterly at it as a wolf in the other rookie game.
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:32 PM   #2640
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

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Originally Posted by starkwired View Post
Killing a potential SK is a much better result for the village than killing someone who is like 80% villa (jobeen).
So let's not lynch jobeen. I like karak. And what % chance would you assign to ILB being the SK? I really doubt it's significantly higher than 20%.
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:32 PM   #2641
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

also why do you want to trust the wolves to do our work? why do you think they would listen to me if villa wont? also, its better for us to lynch him because then we avoid one more villa NK.

if you have any other ideas on who to lynch i'm open to hearing them i guess, but i think my wagon is our only decent shot today
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:33 PM   #2642
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

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one other thing about you thinking i'm just shifting suspicion: if I am SK and we mis lynch ILB based on my accusal of him being an impossible role, then you're obviously gonna end up gunning for me either tomorrow or later if i make it that far. so it would be a pretty craptastic job by me to cover myself
If we lynch ILB and he's villa I'd imagine the wolves will snap kill you tonight. They would be stupid not to unless they have some uber sick read on who the SK is.
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:35 PM   #2643
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

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Originally Posted by goofyballer View Post
So let's not lynch jobeen. I like karak. And what % chance would you assign to ILB being the SK? I really doubt it's significantly higher than 20%.
personally i think it's like 95%, but to be objective i would say closer to 37.85% or so
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:35 PM   #2644
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

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If we lynch ILB and he's villa I'd imagine the wolves will snap kill you tonight. They would be stupid not to unless they have some uber sick read on who the SK is.
fine with me bring it on pups
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:39 PM   #2645
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Getting rid of the SK appeals to me, we've got such a big advantage atm that stopping one of the nightkills is pretty attractive.

He's done a scary good job of killing wolves so far, but if we can't kill the last 2 with an 12/2 villa/wolf ratio then I'm just gonna quit ww entirely.
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:40 PM   #2646
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer View Post
So let's not lynch jobeen. I like karak. And what % chance would you assign to ILB being the SK? I really doubt it's significantly higher than 20%.
There are like 5 players left capable of being the SK, you, mdom, ILB, djstu, and BitchiBee. If it is anyone else I'll eat my hat.

I'd rate %s something like this:

you- 20%
mdom- 10%
ILB- 40%
djstu- 25%
BB- 5%

I don't think any of the other people left are capable of doing this. Karak is possible, but I'm going to rule him out because I think it's a gazillion times more likely he is a wolf than the SK.

FWIW djstu has been intriguing me for awhile now, especially after he came at me hard this morning about that card NK thing, which seemed really nitpicky, like he was trying to come up with a reason to get me lynched. He then backed off and said that I should not be lynched today with pretty poor logic supporting that. To me, that is really weird and reeks of him either being a wolf or SK.

Re: Karak

Part of me really wants to go with my gut from earlier in the game and kill him (as I have suggested over the past few days), but the fact that NO ONE is defending him at all scares me and makes me think he's just not paying close attention because he's disinterested because he's villa. I think he's a better kill than jobeen for sure and possibly 00brian (after him snap voting for me, that was a pretty noob villa move). Still, I like mdom's analysis and had been thinking in a similar vein for a few days, just wasn't ready to pull the trigger because I was afraid I'd get snap NK'd, which looks likely today anyway after the djstu crap, so I might as well say it now.
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:41 PM   #2647
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

fwiw i'm like 99% that ILB is either a wolf or SK but my best guess out of that 99% is that he's a SK. win/win imo
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:42 PM   #2648
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

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fwiw i'm like 99% that ILB is either a wolf or SK but my best guess out of that 99% is that he's a SK. win/win imo
doubt he's wolf, wasn't he peeked?
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:42 PM   #2649
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

i didn't think he was? i could be wrong though
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:44 PM   #2650
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by starkwired View Post
First of all someone else should go check my work because I might have missed something. I didn't quote posts that seemed overly repetitive, like a few more retorts to nightwood and corsakh.

it looks like the two peeks (it is two, right?) come from this list

beer-villa
goofy-villa
button-wolf
corsakh-wolf
mburke-villa

the two wolf reads are emphasized more, but how likely is it that both times he peeked a wolf?

also there is a lot of play between chaser and nightwood, I'm not sure what to make of that and so I'm not addressing that

overall this is going to be a tough spot, IMO
I posted this right after chaser got axed. We know that corsakh was like 99% one of the peeks and two of the other potential peeks were wrong, so his other peek was either goofy or ILB as villa. He had only two, right?
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