Kokiri,

Maybe you are thinking "You are rarely going to get results that average to your mean, that's not how statistics work." I glossed over a lot of stuff. If this is what you are thinking I will write a monte carlo when I get home to simulate 10 years of investing in two securities a million times or so and post the summary statistics on the results.

Or maybe you were thinking of APR thing already being the geometric mean and it was just a definitions thing.

Or maybe something else entirely.

I'll probably write the Monte Carlo when I get home in any case because, why not?

TYVM

We always called it "hand waving."

This is essentially what I mean. It's sloppy language (but fairly industry standard, see the cfa) to use that sort of language, since long term, which should be what we care about, the compound return should be what we care about.

Reading it will help to pass the time, making all that folding less painful.

Hey now, hand waving is a good step above slippery maths.

I once wrote a proof to a problem set that included the step 'given x, y follows by inspection', to which my tutor thought for a while and said something like 'I spent 5 years proving that step to be true'.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/30...nce-investing/

Take it to recommending other threads thread, hoss.

1/1 Dealer's choice game, we're playing crazy pineapple.

For those that don't know, you get dealt 3 cards preflop, and have to discard one of them after the flop

I have ~500
Villian1 ~250
Villan2 ~40

Villain 1 is in SB
Villain 2 is in CO
Im on the Button

I was dealt like 544, 2 limpers to the CO, he raises to 7 or something, I call, Villain 1 calls, two limpers fold.

Flop is 8c 4s 2s, Villain 1 Checks, Villain 2 shoves for 33. I call. Villain 1 calls.
Turn is 5c, Villain1 checks, I bet 50, Villain 1 Shoves for 180~ or whatever he has left, somewhere around there.

Villain1 is a good thinking player
Villain2 doesnt really matter but hes a dumpsterfire

I basically cringe and then call. I figured if he hits his straight he leads out the turn given my range is so heavily favored towards draws, same thing if he had 88/22 and you gotta charge the man for his draws. The possible hands I said that would check would be 53cc, 53ss, A3ss, however I felt like he would c/r on the flop with those combo draws

Pretty sure the right play was to raise on the flop anyways, and then b/f this specific turn card but I thought that might be exploitable given his range is so heavily favored towards spade draws as well

Coming up with accurate long term return forecasts is not something that really happens though (There is a reason "Past performance is no guarantee of future results" is so ubiquitous.)

LOL, I got this vision of a flash mob thing where every 2p2er goes to the casino one day with a copy of Anna Karenina

This is an admirable thought Biggerboat, MOP is just such an academic and esoteric book. If you are up for the challenge Applications of No limit Holdem by Matthew Janda is one I like alot. You will be well brushed in any concept talked of itt after reading that one.

I can ship you a free link if you want but can't post since its a 2p2 published book (I bought a copy like a sucker)

When you become a mod, you can get a 2p2 book of your choice shipped to you, but only in the US (or maybe N America). A certain awesome mod from outside the US had his free book shipped to me. (Applications, LDO).

weird hand younguns

Already ordered it based on fnord's rec. But thanks!

gotta stop grunching

I was talking to a A-name pro recently about Janda, and this person thought it's really the only poker book you need. I tend to agree.

there's enough material to revisit and reapply for life probably.

for nlhe pretty sure this guy disagrees

just made a deal for 8.81k in a jackpot sng. instead of feeling happy Im massively tilted cause I wanted the deal so bad and let another reg take 220 from me (my chip share was 9k) and I just snap took the deal

lesson learnt to take these things slow I guess

nice, congrats

It's often t he case you can make better long run forecasts than short term ones. We're already in a hypothetical world when we're considering your example

had a kind of weird hand

i had aj89 on kqt rainbow checks around turn second diamond, i bet 175 into like 200, both other players call, river is 9 diamonds, i check, guy bet 200 into 725, other guy thinks not long and folds, i think and hate folding to small bets but always lose, decide for whatever reason to call if i randomly look at an 8 or 9 in my hand, look at the ace and fold

guy who bet shows

The frequency of spazz bluffs is low but the price being offered lends it to a call. Particularly when you think about how thinly an unknown might bet is not wide. Which is to say do you think an eight high diamond tries to eek out a call from a straight?

And when you think ok what is he betting with KXXX dd or Axxx dd a bomb?

I dunno maybe it is a good fold but I think it is closer than you might normally think

I'm pretty sure we all miss a ton of spots to bluff in PLO.


Hands like that are kind of exactly the type to bluff...maybe not that river but MW hands where it checks on flop, a possible nut straight is possible, you lead turn with a draw and get flatted. Rivers are pretty good bluffing opportunities when the board doesn't change.

Opponents on the river have an extremely capped range, and most hands capable of calling the river are forced to raise the turn.