Just 3 of you? I think folding that with probably more than 60 is good. I mean you should at best be splitting here, which means you are really playing for (again at best) is the dead money (15) and the lags bet (15). If the bad lag is going to go stick it all in, then you are playing for more but are going be losing the pot a lot more.

Also, why are you in a raised pot with j923r Should have folded that pre every time.

I want to run a few hands by you for input.

Hand 1. 2 limpers, I raise to $14 on button with KK. Short stack about $85 calls. Flop is 963 rainbow. V (bad reg) checks I bet $25, v calls. Turn is blank shorty shoves - me?

Hand 2. V is a young dumb agro kid that thinks he's good. He has about $75. He's raising a lot preflop and cbets every time.. He opens utg with $12. I call with KJh. Flop is KQTr. He leads with $20. Me?

Hand 3. V is an older reg. He likes to play a LOT of pots. He'll bet if he gets any piece of the flop. He's very sticky as well. Rarely folds if he has a part of the board. Every time I've played with him he's been winning but I'll be damned if I can figure out how. I have about $300 and he has me covered. 3 limps and I raise to $15 with AK in late position. Flop is A82 (1 spade). Villain leads with $20, I call. Turn is 9s. Villain leads with $30 and I call. River is a Ks, Villain leads with $50. Me?

1. Cawl

2. Cawl

3. Cawl

what donk said

1 call
2 fold pf, call flop
3 £200 behind? Maybe minraise fold. Who else was in the hand preflop, where was villain's position.

he's the only caller preflop. He's utg1 and donk betting me.

Yea I just shoved because the old gent was playing 80bb deep and the bad lag was liable to provide me value by calling me with dead hands. Otherwise, I wasn't sure if I should've. especially considering Id put in no investments other than preflop and only bad things can happen

And nah I didn't have j923 just wanted to illustrate a naked straight. I think if we were hu and deeper I'm just flatting IP and playing poker when a scarecard comes

How bad a hand do you think he'd pay off a raise with? Definitely with two pair? What about AT/AJ?

Any ace.

I flat with the nuts in this sort of spot a decent amount, tho this one is kind of sick. I'd definitely fold if I had like 200 but it's probably correct with less than that.

yea with position and deeper and HU i'd call>fold>raise since a nit of that profile can be played off his nut straight vs a flushing/pairing card. I felt pretty crummy when it came bet raise, but the gent was playing like 75 BB deep, so meh

also pretty sure qtc8c is a bit worse than q9c8c

i put in akj with nut clubs against two random made straights and it's almost 70% to win

i'd guess we're probably supposed to fold with as little as 100 on this flop

yeah looking at numbers it's getting pretty bleak

yea for sure, because on Q98 or even JT9 there's at least an opportunity for the villains to get their money in dead with lower straights

Assuming that the raiser's range is super tight, which I think is a fair assumption, I see we're getting likely murdered in most cases:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

24,600 trials (Exhaustive)

board: QT8

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
jh9h8h5s	37.35%	9,051	276
QQAc*c	62.65%	15,273	276

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

1,136,520 trials (Exhaustive)

board: QT8

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
jh9h8h5s	29.49%	23,832	622,563
Kj9	70.51%	490,125	622,563

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

39,360 trials (Exhaustive)

board: QT8

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
jh9h8h5s	53.38%	21,012	0
AKQQ	46.62%	18,348	0

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

1,007,780 trials (Exhaustive)

board: QT8

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
jh9h8h5s	28.13%	17,467	532,067
J9:ccxy	71.87%	458,246	532,067

for good measure against a random J9 i'm 40%, surprising but I shouldn't really be.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

6,056,520 trials (Exhaustive)

board: QT8

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
jh9h8h5s	39.28%	117,957	4,521,874
J9	60.72%	1,416,689	4,521,874

Conclusion: bad play hurp

yea after thinking about it on this board texture I have to fold after a bet and a raise

KQ23 on JT9cc might be a bit different as I said re: dead money from dead straights

For how much? He doesn't call a shove with that, does he?

In any case, I think you can 100% raise if you have the As (assuming it wasn't on the flop), and I'd feel excellent about raising no matter what. Hard to see someone only betting $50 with backdoor nuts when you could have easily just rivered top 2 or a set.

So raise whatever you think he'll call, and if he shows 88 or 22, snatch the river king off the table, slice open the dealer's trachea with it, and let him bleed out.

Hand 2 put him all-in. He's shortstacked and will just be betting again on the turn if he has a better hand and you will have to call because of all the outs you have. So pot control is impossible. Given the description, he could have all sorts of hands like AT which are drawing live against you but which might find a fold later in the hand if they don't improve. So just get the money in on the flop when there's a good chance that you're ahead and have undisguised nut outs in case you're behind.

Idk I still barely prefer calling on #2. It's a rainbow flop, and the dude thinks he's a good player. There aren't a ton of scare cards. I think he's more likely to shove a bunch of turns if he missed than call a flop raise. It's close, though.

If he has a bunch of air in his UTG range on a KQT board and also thinks that this would be a good spot to run a double barrel bluff with a short stack then I think the read on him would be more like "completely ******ed blufftard monkey".

Well he's playing the hand with a $75 stack, so he's probably not an actually good player. Like "all sorts of hands like AT"...what turn card is going to scare him?

10/20 plo is a swingy game

If he has AT he may just call the shove since he has a pair and a nut gutshot, and his hand has enough equity that him folding to the shove only causes us to miss out on a small amount of EV anyway. There's not really enough information about him to know what he might do on various turn cards, but if he's not a complete monkey then there are surely going to be some times where it occurs to him that bottom pair probably isn't a very good hand and maybe he should save the rest of his stack. Like even if he hits two pair, some neurons may fire and make him realize that shoving for value without a jack on an AKQT board isn't a good idea, and after checking he may decide to believe that our Hero is only betting with the jack... who knows.

one of my proudest moments in Vegas came when I 4-bet crammed K-high into some Scandi's face during the Aria 500.

he snap folded and winked at me

Hand 1 probably wasn't a good example. After thinking about it some more I think this is really villain dependent and I didn't give enough info. This guy isn't a typical shortstacker. He just lost a couple of pots and didn't top up. The turn bet was so weird. The typical short stack donk just shoves the flop with a pretty wide range and normally I snap call. Anyways, he had 99 and I feel like I really should have folded. This is the only hand of the three where I feel like I made a mistake.

Hand 2 - I shoved and he called with K9 and didn't get there. I felt like this was the right play but I really wanted some input.

Hand 3 - I minraised, he called, and showed up with 22. I feel like I played this ok based on the villain. A couple of months ago I would have just called but I thought this was a spot where I was ahead and I could get some value.

Yeah don't let that result scare you off in solar spots. When I do that and they flip the one of the few call hands that beats me, I kind of write it off to "well I'm just paying them what they should have made on their own". Not solid logic, but it helps me stay off tilt.

Soah, if an ace or 9 turns on hand #2 we can always check behind. He's probably not folding 2 pair on the river, even with a 4-straight board. But it's close either way.