I've been analyzing Montecore to figure out why Chips thought he was so clear.

Here are some interesting posts.

If Slappz and Montecore are a wolf team, this seems kind of ballsy to address 2 wolves like this. Makes me think only one of Slappz/Monte is wolf.

Now this is the part I found really interesting. We pretty much know that they bussed M2B. Montecore *really* brings this up a lot wanting to get credit.

I've only made it to the LirvA suicide, so more to come later. Time to eat for now.

Because I know I'm not a wolf. And because todd tried to vote M2B, but was too late (majority, not night).

GT had no counter wagon, everyone was on him. He was bussed and knew he wasn't going to escape.

zizak was the other, and obviously anyone was going to vote for him that day.

Look at the cres voters. They're all dead villagers except AK and TC who are still alive. M2b was killed by the wolves.

I noticed Taso only changed after the abstain. Interesting but not sure what to make of it.

Montecore also voted immediately before the abstain.

Slappz, if i shouldn't vote for you today, who should i vote for and why?

Theory is if monte's a wolf, m2b read this as the wolves telling him they wanted to bus him and he was supposed to take one for the team?

Also, lol that both zikzak and m2b voted "abstain"

Yeah, not saying it's Monte, but at the point he says abstain, at least 2 wolves are already on him. GT realizes he's not gonna fight, so he jumps on. todd is the mystery, I really want to have him cleared for that seer hunt and don't have many better options.

No one else in our village can know this, because we don't know 100% you're not a wolf. So my argument still stands.

This is the post Chips quoted saying "This has to be a villager, if anyone needs me to explain, let me know", I don't think he got back to it.

Montecore, if you are around, it really would be helpful to come back and help figure this out. I really need to know what to do with you. Chips has you so cleared, but I am concerned. It looks like you have some experience, have played before, know what you are doing. We could use your input.

So reduce the numbers by 1. At least 2 wolves *tried* to bus M2B. AK and I both know it's at least 3 (either he is a wolf and knows who did, and knows I'm clear, or he is a villager, and knows there is only 1 person remaining).

No one is getting credit for voting M2B.

Clear some villagers bro.

Also, only you and JTM (only since yesterday) are really even considering I'm a wolf, so for everyone else, they know that there were 3+ wolves trying to get on that wagon.

BTW, I really would like to get some debate about the RR night kill. I think everyone has ignored it. Do you think it's not relevant? Not a seer hunt? Don't know?

Where does chips say that? I can't find it

It was a seer hunt. He was all over m2b on day 1 and never waivered. By day 3 he flatly said that m2b and taso were wolves. Said he didn't need to provide evidence and said that he would tell us how he knows taso was a wolf as soon as we got rid of m2b.

Monte said "why wait"

RR said nothing and was NKd. He was too dangerous for Taso to leave alive.

Slappz, I should add that I'm not against changing my mind on you. But somebody has to be the wolves and I have to vote for someone. Who should I vote for and why?

And what is your response to domer's post about you seeming to know that chips was villa beforehand?

I don't even think your a high % wolf, I'm trying to illustrate how your claiming assumptions as facts and they have a % chance of being wrong. Stop stating things as FACT when I can easily prove them false using simple math. It's a game of imperfect information and your trying to avoid that reality.

What does SHC stand for?

Seer Hunt Clear

Ok, I looked through Montecore's posts, and I have no idea how Chips could have cleared him.

He has a lot of posts without saying much. I made a table for him, but it's not terribly useful, he never gives reads, he defends a person here or there (me mostly lately after Chips did), throws out a few attacks, a few votes.

He's super eager to defend anyone who voted for M2B as clear.

He's got a declining post count, especially now that most people treating him as clear.

I am not liking what I'm seeing at all. And he hasn't posted all weekend. I really want to give him a chance to respond/spew, but he has to be a top candidate.

The other odd thing about Montecore is the only people he's defended are super villagery or proven villager. Myself, kowboys, Lirva, suzzer, RR, domer.

He throws out a lot of attacks stiring things up on random people. None are terribly strong cases or look like wolf hunting. It's more follow the crowd, and get that going.

His vote immediately before M2B gave up also is strong evidence to me as well. Really feeling Montecore as wolf here, a lot more than before.

There likely is one wolf between 425 and AK. Slappz certainly still feels super wolfy to me, but trying to figure out what the other possibilities are. JTM is concerning me, and I think one of him and AK is a wolf.

So my last analysis is:
Montecore
at least one of AK/JTM
at most one of AK/425
Slappz

Clear players to me are:
me
todd
suzzer
domer

Comments are welcome. If anyone wants my Montecore summary, I can post it, but it's mostly boring.

TC, there are only 3 more wolves

Ok, so subtract 1 from it, the point still stands. At least 2 wolves bussed him (or tried to).

Not sure how this is wolfy?

I know, but I doubt I have it all figured out. For example, AK/Montecore/Slappz is a possibility. Montecore/425/JTM is another IMO.

He had to be much less dangerous than a seer. I don't think I ever remember seeing a peek on M2B, although he was on his case as early as D1.

1. I don't see why you think I "know" Chips was villager? I was simply stating,

-If he get's NK then he's a villager (we will see the report from the Mod)
-If he doesn't get NK then
a. did we lynch a villager because of his leadership
b. his likelihood of wolf is now through the roof with him being the most experienced player, practically running the show for the entire day, giving strong wisdom for the village, and still not taken out by the wolves.

2. Just because Chips had me in his top 3 wolves list doesn't mean I can't see his value to the village. I know I'm a villager, so it's up to me to convince Chips in future days that I'm not a wolf. I'm not gonna be petty and blame him for playing well and trying to work with the info available on such short notice. Even chips can be wrong, as evidenced by our mislynch that day.

3. Well the point of the 2 posts was already answered in #1.