based on previous games, minusev's d1 activity, with regard to his willingness to give his reads, leads me to believe that we have a villager-minusev this game.

okay, im a little clearer now about the game - time to sleep.

night.

what does ssod mean?

sick good job aao, but I'm not sure how to extract much info from it. It's good for reference no doubt and you seem to read a lot from it, so thats cool.

QF importance

not 100% maybe, but very high %

ssod = spreadsheet of doom.

luckayluck did it first (his idea)... i liked it so i copied it from him and gathered reads off of it.

I think atak is trying to bus axel. (?)

Minus probably not a wolf. (?)

if atak is a wolf goofy is a villa from sun's seer hunt also.

Lest we forget

so, plan of action is now as follows:

todays lynch = axel (supposed wolf). from doing this, we effectively force the wolves to nk either well named or atak. thus, we have our seer.

tomorrows lynch = the non-nked player out of well named or atak... = 1 more wolf.

if the wolves DO NOT nk well named or atak, then we have another "free peek", both well named and atak post their new peek and we lynch one of them... meaning that the other is cleared and is the seer (or we lynch the seer and the other one is a wolf). but we'd just have one mroe cleared villager in the game at or near ML.

i think we'd be in pretty good shape from that iyam.

okay, really going to bed now.

what's the best plan if we knew atak is seer 15ish% of the time and WN is seer 85ish% of the time?

If axel is a villager and we lynch him today how deep in **** are we?

[ ] waist high
[ ] completely buried
[x] god help us all

If we lynch atak, and he were to be the seer, we have 2 lock wolves the next day in axel (peeked by atak) and WN (obv wolf)

If atak is a wolf, I dont think anything is lost by lynching him.

if atak is the seer we are gtd to make it to f3

f7 lynch axel
f5 lynch wn (or the other way around)
f3 the force be with us

if atak is a wolf we are in f7 at must lynch+1 with 2 clear villagers.

f7 elliot and andy are clear, WN nk'ed. mislynches available: 1


If we lynch axel and he's a villager we are at must lynch f7 with 1 lock wolf in atak, and WN dead overnight, and 2 clear villagers.
f7 lynch atak (andy & goof clear)
f5 the force be with us (1 villa clear remaining) 0 mislynches remaining

super andy, nananana !

This is absurd. It's a cooler if I'm telling the truth? Work it through. First, your probabilities have switched -- earlier you used 50% and 33% as the percentages for me being seer, now it's 15%. You need to ask, from wolf-WN's perspective, who else could be seer? And if they couldn't find the seer, whom would they try to take out? That gives you your a priori percentages.

Then, you need to consider the play. I'm sick and ****ing tired of the idea that nothing I do can ever clear me. The fact is that while nothing in werewolf is absolute, you all know darned well I'm more likely to play this way if it's rreal than if it's a ploy. If it's real I have to do this; if it's a ploy I'd fight, but I wouldn't have to keep swimming upstream with my son vying for my time and a lot better things to do than fight a battle that's already been lost. Meanwhile, it's not dispositive but you know that way well named has played, with his lackadaisical attitude in about a contested claim in what he says is only his second or third seer game ever, is evidence that something's not right over there.

Axel is a wolf. I think most of you know this. Even if you think I'm a wolf busing him, he's still a wolf -- and if you think I may be telling the truth (and you have to know it's a good likelihood) then lynching him is the only correct play.

Just don't go blaming me for a village loss, if it happens, if you bus me. You know my peeks are there. Super obscure or not, they're there. And you know I have to play this way as seer.

It is not a cooler. If you lynch me it is just a flat out mistake.

And yes, I'm really ****ing angry now. To be beaten is one thing, but to be beaten by such half-assed fake claim is quite another, particularly as I have to watch and participate in three days of debate with the result apparently foregone. Andy has decided, and all the discussion he engaged me in last night and today is for nothing.

If you've made up your minds, so be it. But I will never, ever let the villagers in thsi group live this one down.

And it is must lynch, and you have all told the wolves exactly whom they need to kill to ensure that they get an f3 that works for them.

While if you leave me alive you get one mislynch to work with, and if the wolves pay chicken and leave me alive you then need to consider lynching me but if in the meantime I have found the third wolf the game is over.

If you think this, what do you lose by lynching axel now?

Look at the game I linked to; look at other of my seer games. (I can give you all more links if you want.) These peeks are how I leave peeks. Meanwhile, what has WN given you? that he thinks he was pretty paranoid in his other seer game, whenever it was, but whatever. that's not an exaggeration, that's what he said. "But whatever."

Anyone who wants to spend the time, I will show you any wolf game of mine you want, to. I have ever made an argument like this, never left fake peeks that looked like this as a wolf nor tried to concoct them later. I figure I must have claimed seer as a wolf once or twice, but for the life of me I haven't been able to remember when; maybe it hasn't happened. I can quote you other people saying it's not part of my game. I don't do this as a wolf.

Look at the rest of this game, too. Everyone agrees that the guy I'm trying to get you to lynch is wolfy. Everyone but goofy seemed to believe I was villagery, though with Andy's flip-flopping who the **** knows about what he thinks. I don't think anyone thought well named looked very good. But now he claims, I claim, and you are contemplating believing him because he got there first (even though doing so would have been atrocious play by an actual seer) and because he says he peeked me (even though no one has explained how him naming anyone else could have made sense).

God mother ****ing damn it, I am not a wolf. Axel is a wolf. Well named is a wolf. But you don't have to take my word for any of this — trust your reads. Not one player in this game thinks Axel shouldn't be lynched — even he didn't bother defending himself.

Lynch Axel. It is right.


__________

In case anyone's wondering, yes, I've been drinking a bit. This anger is very, very real.

Those villagers who are thinking it would be some miracle for wolf-well named to claim with the actual seer as his wolf, ask your self: could he have thought you were seer? And if there's no one who could be seer, would you have been a good choice as a target?

He had "peeked" Andy and Elliot, so they were out. I seriously doubt m1ke and Axel have left reasonable-looking peeks — hell, they've barely posted. That leaves aao, goofy, and MinusEV. If any of those three happens to be a wolf, he's out too, but even if you're all villagers (I know about goofy, obviously) — could you be seer, from a wolf's perspective? Have you left peeks that were more obvious than mine — and are you sure those peeks were right? And if, as I suspect is the case, no one has left correct peeks that the wolves noticed (including mine, I'll bet), do you have a history of leaving very obscure peeks, of being difficult to read, and of being capable of blowing a game open if you're left alive?

If yes, you go in the denominator of Andy's calculations.

I can't stay up to do this analysis — I want to, but I'm going to pass out from exhaustion. And tomorrow is my son's last full day with me until Christmas, and I'm intending to spend it with him rather than fighting a losing battle. But each of you could easily answer the question about your own posts. Could the wolves have thought you were seer? If they could have, but didn't target or kill you - why is that? Once I turn up seer, you will have to work out why they went after me, with my obscure peeks, rather than you. This was almost certainly a desperate seerhunt, so if you left clear peeks an are still alive when I come up seer, then one or more of your peeks is wrong.

Now you are talking.

I'm more than happy to let myself be convinced by such a heartfelt exposition atak, but if you are lying I will reserve the right to never ever believe you in future games, no matter how compelling your arguments. And you'll have to take it like a champ.

But as a one off, even more so considering that it's not an automatic loss if you are lying, I'm happy to oblige and vote axel (no maj so it's safe to vote)

I dont think you'd lie (and even bring in a bit of meta) so adamantly, what do I know. I still think this is not even close in a vacuum but if you say you got them, maybe you got them, what the hell.

Obviously you will lynch well named and axel in some order. Elliot, goofy, and some other person will be NKed, and you will face a f3 drawn from {aao, Andy, m1ke, minus}. None of the four of you should give any more reads, or have any more discussion, about other players from that set. If one of you is known to have strong felleings about it, the wolves can too easily night kill or leave you alive, depending on which is to their advantage. Consider, for example, that Andy has made clear (or at least as clear as he makes anything) that he suspects Minus. If Minus is the wolf, he can get rid of Andy if he feels the need, or choose to pay a leveling game — but this is not a game that you want to play, because your cards are face up. The wolf knows what is going on, and you don't.

Goofy and Elliot should of course give all their reads on those players — in fact, one of those two is going to die tonight, so it behooves you to do it today. And don't worry about whether you'll be killed for it — you'll be killed because I peeked you. Sorry 'bout that.

Andy, I hate brionging emotion into the game. I don't do it. I have never faked ita s a wolf (or a villager). I have faked a fight (with OrangeRake)... except that in fact it wasn't really fake; I really do dislike her. But it was a bit stylized.

But beyond that I have never faked anything like this. I don't lie about out-of-game stuff, even though I think it's perfectly within the bounds of good sportsmanship to do it. It's just not me. I also never lie about strategy or theory,a and I never lie about my or anybody else's meta (though I have been known to leave stuff about my own game out).

I have also been completely forthcoming about how I play, as wolf, villager and seer. I have given a clinic here on how to read my peeks; I doubt wolves will go wrong about that again, so I suppose I'll need to try to change it up.