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02-23-2021 , 12:36 PM
I mean over 50% of people who identify as very liberal think that the number of unarmed black people shot in the US is greater than 1,000 in a year.
That actually is a pretty amazing statistic.
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02-23-2021 , 12:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamnotawerewolf


as VR pointed out, the data itself (whomever counted) is suspect, so the relevance is not "who is more correct" but "who is more concerned", insofar as "concern" directs expectation & belief
So what do you think the true number is?
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02-23-2021 , 12:41 PM
The best way I can think of off the top of my head to get a good guess either if asked in that survey or in real life is to consider the number of total fatal shootings (harder to fudge?) , the number of those which are black people, and how likely they are to have a gun.

Based on that I would have guessed about 250.

Last edited by pwnsall; 02-23-2021 at 12:41 PM. Reason: Tree fiddy?
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02-23-2021 , 12:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luckbox Inc
So what do you think the true number is?
God only knows.

My point is that the "gun-to-head" guess (pardon the pun) shows what the responder is sensitive to, not how prescient they are.
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02-23-2021 , 12:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamnotawerewolf
God only knows.



My point is that the "gun-to-head" guess (pardon the pun) shows what the responder is sensitive to, not how prescient they are.
They're sensitive to propaganda. Yes, that's the point.
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02-23-2021 , 12:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pwnsall
The best way I can think of off the top of my head to get a good guess either if asked in that survey or in real life is to consider the number of total fatal shootings (harder to fudge?) , the number of those which are black people, and how likely they are to have a gun.

Based on that I would have guessed about 250.
what does "armed" mean?

what does "black" mean?

what counts as a "fatal shooting"?
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02-23-2021 , 12:50 PM
Like if you asked conservatives what their #1 issue is and they said "China" or something ridiculous, it would not mean that they are more sensitive to issues involving China.
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02-23-2021 , 12:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamnotawerewolf
what does "armed" mean?



what does "black" mean?



what counts as a "fatal shooting"?
Who am I?
Why am I here?
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02-23-2021 , 12:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luckbox Inc
They're sensitive to propaganda. Yes, that's the point.
In some circles we refer to this as "giving a ****." Just saying.
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02-23-2021 , 12:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VoraciousReader
In some circles we refer to this as "giving a ****." Just saying.
I wonder what their assessments would be on the number of unarmed white people killed by police every year. Higher or lower than the number of blacks?
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02-23-2021 , 12:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luckbox Inc
They're sensitive to propaganda. Yes, that's the point.
no, "propaganda" is a loaded term

it carries within it the presumption that the information it conveys is inaccurate


besides, do you think MSNBC is broadcasting "1k unarmed blacks killed this year" or whatever?


no, and that's not what the study is about.
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02-23-2021 , 12:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luckbox Inc
Who am I?
Why am I here?
are those critical terms in the survey at issue?
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02-23-2021 , 12:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VoraciousReader
In some circles we refer to this as "giving a ****." Just saying.
And yeah...sorry, thinking that more than 1,000 (or 10,000) black people are killed every year does not mean these people "care more". They probably do care more-- but not because of that stat.
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02-23-2021 , 12:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luckbox Inc
I wonder what their assessments would be on the number of unarmed white people killed by police every year. Higher or lower than the number of blacks?
sure, and that answer will tell your their attitudes towards police-on-white violence (eg., "not a big deal" or "concerning")

because again, they won't really know the answer, so instead they search their feelings and identify a confirming worldscape
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02-23-2021 , 12:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luckbox Inc
I wonder what their assessments would be on the number of unarmed white people killed by police every year. Higher or lower than the number of blacks?
I suspect (and presume you do too) it would be lower, which is also incorrect afaik.

Still not apologizing for giving a ****.
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02-23-2021 , 01:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamnotawerewolf
sure, and that answer will tell your their attitudes towards police-on-white violence (eg., "not a big deal" or "concerning")



because again, they won't really know the answer, so instead they search their feelings and identify a confirming worldscape
I have no clue what your argument is in this discussion anymore.
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02-23-2021 , 01:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamnotawerewolf
what does "armed" mean?

what does "black" mean?

what counts as a "fatal shooting"?
Is this what birdman feels like all the time!?!?

I agree cops have some latitude to juke the stats in regards to crimes and shootings.

I do enjoy the subtle gaslighting that being more right is actually wrong. Almost like people start with "group of people" is wrong because "belief system"and here's why!
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02-23-2021 , 01:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VoraciousReader
I suspect (and presume you do too) it would be lower, which is also incorrect afaik.



Still not apologizing for giving a ****.
It's higher-- there are a lot more white people in the US than black people.

I can't find stats on unarmed white people.
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02-23-2021 , 01:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pwnsall
I do enjoy the subtle gaslighting that being more right is actually wrong. Almost like people start with "group of people" is wrong because "belief system"and here's why!
This is definitely the most interesting part of this discussion.
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02-23-2021 , 01:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luckbox Inc
I have no clue what your argument is in this discussion anymore.
My argument is that the results convey the cares of the respondents, not their awareness of reality.
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02-23-2021 , 01:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pwnsall
Is this what birdman feels like all the time!?!?

I agree cops have some latitude to juke the stats in regards to crimes and shootings.

I do enjoy the subtle gaslighting that being more right is actually wrong. Almost like people start with "group of people" is wrong because "belief system"and here's why!
Sorry but meanings matter.

It's not gaslighting. It's critical analysis.
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02-23-2021 , 01:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luckbox Inc
It's higher-- there are a lot more white people in the US than black people.

I can't find stats on unarmed white people.
I feel like you didn't understand my prediction.
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02-23-2021 , 01:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamnotawerewolf
My argument is that the results convey the cares of the respondents, not their awareness of reality.
I think there are lots of problems with that argument.
You're arguing that people are just throwing out big numbers because they think it's a big problem, without any care for what the actual number might be when asked to make an estimate of what the actual number is?
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02-23-2021 , 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luckbox Inc
I think there are lots of problems with that argument.
You're arguing that people are just throwing out big numbers because they think it's a big problem, without any care for that the actual number might be when asked to make an estimate of what the actual number is?
They have no way to determine the actual number, so the only means of answering a question like that is in terms of conceived (and not perceived) severity.
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02-23-2021 , 01:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamnotawerewolf
They have no way to determine the actual number, so the only means of answering a question like that is in terms of covered conceived (and not perceived) severity.
They do have a way of estimating. It's called using common sense. Over 10,000 unarmed black people killed in the US every year is not common sense. Over 1,000 is not common sense-- that's a little less than three/day. And then why would we only hear about certain cases if it were happening that much? That's how common sense works. 26 or 27-- which would be one every 2 weeks works quite well though.
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