OTI's 10kth Invitational WW *GAME THREAD- FPS ISLAND* - Page 70

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OTI's 10kth Invitational WW *GAME THREAD- FPS ISLAND*

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10-21-2009 , 06:53 PM

#1726

XXsooted

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 32,335

Quote:

Originally Posted by J.D.

i like my vote more now. it would be really easy for another wolf to tell him to go throw a fit, cuz thats what he would do as a villager. Worst case, he is telling the truth, and wont contribute, I can live with that.

This is the second time both of you have tried to hop on me this game, and the second time you are wrong. I still think Aries might be villa, but starting to wonder about XX.

this is just repeating the same stuff others have said. Wolfy lean for XX.

it may be but I really haven't read anythign since my previous post itt so not a good reason for a wolfy lean IMO

and you seem to be a little defensive... am I not allowed to think you're a wolf? How am I trying to "hop" on you

Quote

10-21-2009 , 06:54 PM

#1727

wdcbooks

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 13,203

I hope to be back in time to make some more substantive posts, but I am surprised and not surprised to see Danny fall in the vote count. I don't want to vote for him because of the vote switch, but that isn't a reason not to vote for him either. I continue to think he is a good wolf candidate and I honestly have no idea why I would vote for Semper, so Danny.

ps. I have no idea why I would vote Semper in the sense that I haven't read the thread yet and the reasons, not in the sense that I think the case is bad. Although when I don't know a player well and I see them leading the voting on day two I tend to suspect they are being railroaded.

Quote

10-21-2009 , 06:54 PM

#1728

wahoopride

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 39,874

fwiw i still think danny is a wolf too

Quote

10-21-2009 , 06:54 PM

#1729

DiggertheDog

Pan Troglodytes

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 57,791

aao
In LOTR I avoided peeking strong players specifically because it was far less likely to be a live peek.

Quote

10-21-2009 , 06:54 PM

#1730

XXsooted

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 32,335

Quote:

Originally Posted by DannyKGB

I understand why im a wagon today, but could explain why I was a good wagon yesterday? I didnt read every post of the day but I remember my 2, and I know THEY were good reason for a wagon.

i didnt get an n0 peek but last night i peeked aao villager

your read of luckay as villagery. Aries questioned you on it and it didn't seem like you were joking.

Quote

10-21-2009 , 06:55 PM

#1731

XXsooted

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 32,335

so feel free to explain it if you want. apologies if you already have if I missed it.

Quote

10-21-2009 , 06:56 PM

#1732

ElliotR

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 30,029

Quote:

Originally Posted by aao

i think these guys (below) are more than likely to be wolves (or rather, non villagers) than villagers and id encourage the seer(s) to peek one of them or for us to lynch them.

dnky
esse
gtpitch
nich
sun

esse is a villager, so redo your analysis

Quote

10-21-2009 , 06:56 PM

#1733

xxaceshigh77xx

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 10,307

Quote:

Originally Posted by AriesRam

I think semper is a much better vote today than danny. Semper and coordi have both been pretty wolfy, but I dont see two wolves sticking their necks out like that to save another wolf so obviously. Unless danny is really powerful.

And I dont really like the progression of mm is wolfy -> mm and danny arent wolves together -> vote danny.

i agree with this

Quote:

Originally Posted by aao

k, ignore the post about getting rid of the moneymatt1 and semper voters as i confused myself and ive automatically edited them out of this line-up.

so, this is all the people who 'wasted' their vote on d1 and potentially tried to hide it on a fellow wolf, with the semper fidelis and moneymatt1 voters AND non-voters taken out:

[0] aao voted for fcblcomish
[0] Birdman10687 voted for globetrotter
[3] Browneyedgirl voted for elliotr
[0] Chuckleslovakian voted for luckayluck
[0] dmk voted for browneyedgirl
[1] dnkyhunter31 voted for essedarius
[1] essedarius voted for gtpitch
[1] gtpitch voted for diggerthedog
[0] I_Like_beer voted for dnkyhunter31
[0] J.D. voted for goofyballer
[0] Mcavoy voted for browneyedgirl
[3] MoneyMatt1 voted for browneyedgirl
[0] Nicholasp27 voted for globetrotter
[0] Pyromaniac voted for fcblcomish
[0] Sun Tzu voted for atakdog
[0] vayacondios voted for elliotr
[0] Willd voted for elliotr

call it a gut feeling, but i dont think the elliotr voters are "hiding" as he did make one or two wolfy type posts on d1. also, (and although it includes me) the fcbl voters arent hiding either. i was away from the thread at eod and would have changed to a wagon almost certainly (as you all know) if i was around... also, pyro is a dead villa.

so, updated list, minus the elliotr and fcbl voters:

[0] Birdman10687 voted for globetrotter
[0] Chuckleslovakian voted for luckayluck
[0] dmk voted for browneyedgirl
[1] dnkyhunter31 voted for essedarius
[1] essedarius voted for gtpitch
[1] gtpitch voted for diggerthedog
[0] I_Like_beer voted for dnkyhunter31
[0] J.D. voted for goofyballer
[0] Mcavoy voted for browneyedgirl
[3] MoneyMatt1 voted for browneyedgirl
[0] Nicholasp27 voted for globetrotter
[0] Sun Tzu voted for atakdog

also, i dont know how the BEG wagon started or what the inside joke is or anything, so cant take out those votes either as i didnt follow/understand it.

the peoples names that stick out to me from this list are:

dnky
esse
gtpitch
nich
sun

dnky/esse/gtp all have 1 vote each... a little weird imo. why? well, dnky votes for esse, esse votes for gtpitch and gtpitch votes for digger (who did not pick a main wagon either)

nich is extremely quiet and i dont think he ever wastes a vote as a villager. the only time ive seen him quiet is when he was a wolf (in the bsg game iirc) so maybe that is playing on my mind too.

and sun tzu because... well voting for atak on d1 is stupid as a villager imo. itd be interesting to see who atak voted for too, but im assuming he voted for one of the main wagons as i think he's too much of a high profile player to waste a vote on a non-wagon as hed very lkely get called up for it the following day. (just checked and yeah, atak voted for lsc... who we know needed to get close in votes to danny for his lynch... be interesting to see what time exactly atak voted for lsc as it may be another wolfy thing atak has done so far itt.

conclusion:

i think these guys (below) are more than likely to be wolves (or rather, non villagers) than villagers and id encourage the seer(s) to peek one of them or for us to lynch them.

dnky
esse
gtpitch
nich
sun

i think nich and sun could easily be utr wolves..... not sure about gpitch

yesterday i thought esse was villa

yesterday i thought dnky was wolfy..... i have since changed my mind and believe he is a villa

Quote

10-21-2009 , 06:57 PM

#1734

ElliotR

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 30,029

Quote:

Originally Posted by gtpitch

So yea we need to find a good second wagon. Right now its MM1.

What's the case there?

We found him first and decided to give you until tomorrow?

Quote

10-21-2009 , 06:58 PM

#1735

biggerboat

you're gonna need one

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 49,836

Quote:

Originally Posted by ElliotR

esse is a villager, so redo your analysis

I'm not sure I agree with this.

Quote

10-21-2009 , 06:58 PM

#1736

xxaceshigh77xx

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 10,307

MM1

i think semper is prolly a vanilla who gave up.... but since there is a chance he is a wolf he would make a better vig kill then lynch imo

a danny lynch of semper is fine with me i guess.... but i really dislike lynching semper

Quote

10-21-2009 , 06:59 PM

#1737

McAvoy

banned

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 46,476

Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

McAvoy is weirding me out this game, he's not playing how he usually does in any role

WER usually takes about half a day to convince me he's a villager beyond all reasonable doubt, and I'm not seeing that yet

same as yesterday, semper

I'm not a big fan of very large games, look at SW, HP, LoTR, PB, my level of involvement is low when games are too big. But I am trying more in this game since its OTI's but I don't post that much early in any role unless I'm bored. But I've been busy with poker the past couple of days.

Quote

10-21-2009 , 07:00 PM

#1738

gtpitch

making sick bumps

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 33,706

Quote:

Originally Posted by ElliotR

We found him first and decided to give you until tomorrow?

Nice case.

Expand please?

Quote:

Originally Posted by xxaceshigh77xx

What's a danny lynch of semper?

Quote

10-21-2009 , 07:00 PM

#1739

Scrubbo

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 2,878

Quote:

Originally Posted by xxaceshigh77xx

wat

Quote

10-21-2009 , 07:00 PM

#1740

gtpitch

making sick bumps

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 33,706

Quote:

Originally Posted by ElliotR

We found him first and decided to give you until tomorrow?

When you're done please to explain your read of me too.

Quote

10-21-2009 , 07:05 PM

#1741

aao

crazy theorist

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 16,869

Quote:

Originally Posted by DiggertheDog

I am not sure what your 3 D's are.
But you misunderstand my post.
Certainly finding wolves is the best thing for a seer peek, but almost as important is to have live peeks. As the spread of players on that list is strong - it is less likely to be a live peek than rand.

yes, having live peeks is certainly one of a seers objectives, but your post assumed that the wolves will likely kill a strong player instead of a potential seer.

Quote:

Originally Posted by atakdog

He said > rand chance, because strong player. Your retort makes sense only if strong players are less likely than average to be seers.

looking on the bigger picture here, this post is another genericly wolfy read ive picked up on in my ww experiences... atakdog has been found guilty of one of the three d's in the ATDSBSGTWHA theory.

to address the post, however, despite what he may have said, his post assumed that there is a high chance that the wolves will be strong player killing at night instead of trying to seer hunt and killing off potential seers.

Quote

10-21-2009 , 07:06 PM

#1742

WinEvryRacex

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 12,929

Quote:

Originally Posted by aao

yes, having live peeks is certainly one of a seers objectives, but your post assumed that the wolves will likely kill a strong player instead of a potential seer.

looking on the bigger picture here, this post is another genericly wolfy read ive picked up on in my ww experiences... atakdog has been found guilty of one of the three d's in the ATDSBSGTWHA theory.

to address the post, however, despite what he may have said, his post assumed that there is a high chance that the wolves will be strong player killing at night instead of trying to seer hunt and killing off potential seers.

wat

Quote

10-21-2009 , 07:08 PM

#1743

gtpitch

making sick bumps

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 33,706

Quote:

Originally Posted by aao

WTF is this?

Quote

10-21-2009 , 07:08 PM

#1744

aao

crazy theorist

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 16,869

Quote:

Originally Posted by WinEvryRacex

wat

wat?

Quote

10-21-2009 , 07:08 PM

#1745

biggerboat

you're gonna need one

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 49,836

Quote:

Originally Posted by aao

wat?

Quote

10-21-2009 , 07:09 PM

#1746

aao

crazy theorist

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 16,869

Quote:

Originally Posted by gtpitch

WTF is this?

i explained it earlier, but for those who werent here, it means:

"Aao's Three D's Step By Step Guide To Wolf Hunting Approach"

Quote

10-21-2009 , 07:09 PM

#1747

DiggertheDog

Pan Troglodytes

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 57,791

I can see how you made that connection but I certainly did not mean to imply that.

Quote

10-21-2009 , 07:10 PM

#1748

aao

crazy theorist

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 16,869

Quote:

Originally Posted by biggerboat

wat?

Quote

10-21-2009 , 07:10 PM

#1749

gtpitch

making sick bumps

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 33,706

Quote:

Originally Posted by aao

i explained it earlier, but for those who werent here, it means:

"Aao's Three D's Step By Step Guide To Wolf Hunting Approach"

And the 3d's?

Quote

10-21-2009 , 07:11 PM

#1750

Willd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 16,475

I think xxaces' shroop is the sort of shroop that could justify a cfd. It makes it seem as though he switched which of the 2 he would be fine with a wagon and which he "really disliked".

As for the seer hunt vs strong player thing, aao have you considered the fact that yesterday a huge number of people will have left fake peeks, plenty of which will have been accurate, and so the most likely person for the wolves to kill would be a strong villager who left a peek? Obviously this would results in a strong player being killed > rand.

Quote

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