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NASCAR WW thread, take 2 NASCAR WW thread, take 2

02-08-2009 , 06:47 PM
BEG, there is no way I'm voting for AG today, and I'm sure not many others will either.
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02-08-2009 , 06:52 PM
I've also noticed a back and forth on being a good/bad wolf.
Quote:
Originally Posted by atakdog
That's why I'm regarded as one of the weakest wolves around. I spew all my fellow wolves, and can't keep heat off me. I'm also a terrible strategist.
Quote:
Originally Posted by atakdog
In other words, it is consistent, but is a dominated tactic from wolf-me's perspective. To believe I would do it as I did is to think that I responded pretty much 180 degrees wrong to the late events -- and there really weren't any events before my vote switch. Frankly, I'm a better wolf than that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by atakdog
I'm a villager, and I know this (unlike one player in this game who I think forgets his role), and if MMM is a wolf I know he knows this. I also believe pretty strongly that wMMM would believe I'm a more valuable lynch than anyone else currently under serious discussion, particularly Manu, whom he's been pushing, not least because I can get out of trouble better than they can.
he has responded to this, he said he was being sarcastic in the first post. but then he posts this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by atakdog
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrownEyedGirl
I think we have some very experienced wolves to pick off both seers so quickly. . . . Matrix & Aries both fit that bill.
Pretty good evidence that I'm not a wolf, as anyone who has wolfed with me can attest.
Also, as XX says, this is ridiculous -- when seers are that clear with wolf peeks, even I couldn't miss them.
this post doesnt sound sarcastic. it sounds like he is saying he is a poor wolf. Also it is slightly pointless except to point out he is a bad wolf, because he goes on to say that even a bad wolf would see who the seers are.
How can wolves being experienced be good evidence he is not a wolf, if the evidence saying the wolves are good is not valid.
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02-08-2009 , 06:53 PM
Briefly (because playing poker) --

Andrew, I'd have been a lot more careful about the seer peek stuff if I'd been a wolf. (For one thing, I'd have been through them when deciding whom to NK.) I was just thinking out loud, and missed some stuff -- you can see the sequence of thoughts, as I went through from begining to end. (I don't do it Aries's way, because it's wrong.) That's (making big mistakes about what the thread says) a village tell for me, or I believe it is -- I haven't incorporated it into my wolf game yet. (I suppose I should, but the idea of intentionally doing things to look dumb is really nt very atak-like -- trust me on this, or ask others here.)
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02-08-2009 , 06:55 PM
Andrew, I don't think atak is intentionally leaving things out. That's been pointed out as a hole in his wolf game.

If atak is a wolf, his strategy is to be as villagery as possible imo.
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02-08-2009 , 06:56 PM
In that "improve my wolf game" thread you will see me talk about being abd at seerhunting -- and it's true. Ask, for example, XX, who recently wolfed with me in a game in which I was lol-bad at it.

But that doesn't mean I'm saying I'm a bad wolf. Here, I'll go on record: I believe I am one of the most skilled wolves now playing regularly on POG. If I could find the damned seers, I'd be better -- but the idea that I'm downplaying my wolf game is way off.
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02-08-2009 , 06:59 PM
Also, I think in the last post atak is saying he's bad at seer-hunting, not wolfing in general.
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02-08-2009 , 07:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndrewGreve
this post doesnt sound sarcastic. it sounds like he is saying he is a poor wolf. Also it is slightly pointless except to point out he is a bad wolf, because he goes on to say that even a bad wolf would see who the seers are.
How can wolves being experienced be good evidence he is not a wolf, if the evidence saying the wolves are good is not valid.
That's not the sarcastic one.

Also, what the post means (mostly jokingly) is that the fact that the wolevs found the seer should clear me. No, not really, but ask around -- there's a basis for it. Ask Sun, XX, Hitch.
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02-08-2009 , 07:00 PM
Like a warm summers breeze, OR enters the thread......
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02-08-2009 , 07:01 PM
It's interesting that a lot of people suspect atak for different reasons.
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02-08-2009 , 07:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by atakdog
This part is hilarious.
WHY IS EVERYTHING I SAY HILARIOUS OR WEIRD????? I am actually trying here. Fake confusion is a wolf trait. Is it not?

I'll just sit here and keep my mouth shut then. Hitch.....tell me who to vote for.

You guys are making me gun shy to even post a single comment.
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02-08-2009 , 07:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by atakdog
BEG, there is no way I'm voting for AG today, and I'm sure not many others will either.

That's fine with me.....why would I care who you vote for?
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02-08-2009 , 07:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by atakdog
That's not the sarcastic one.

Also, what the post means (mostly jokingly) is that the fact that the wolevs found the seer should clear me. No, not really, but ask around -- there's a basis for it. Ask Sun, XX, Hitch.
I realize that's a joke, but the logic is wrong anyway.

A wolf team is as good at seerhunting as its best seerhunter, not its worst.
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02-08-2009 , 07:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrownEyedGirl
WHY IS EVERYTHING I SAY HILARIOUS OR WEIRD????? I am actually trying here. Fake confusion is a wolf trait. Is it not?

I'll just sit here and keep my mouth shut then. Hitch.....tell me who to vote for.

You guys are making me gun shy to even post a single comment.
HE said I confused the two of them -- I got mixed up about who was who. THis is obvious in context, (and has been discussed multiple times, including by him and by me) and your reading of it was funny.
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02-08-2009 , 07:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sun Tzu
I realize that's a joke, but the logic is wrong anyway.

A wolf team is as good at seerhunting as its best seerhunter, not its worst.
No, and you know it. Unless the anwer is clear once you find it. Many times I have talked wolves into go with my candidate, only to have it be wrong, and sometimes the other one is right.

In Toons, I almost talked the rest of the pack out of lynching chim.
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02-08-2009 , 07:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrownEyedGirl
That's fine with me.....why would I care who you vote for?
Because you want your vote to matter (I would think), and it won't ifd there will never be a consensus to lycnh your candidate today.

----------
Meanwhile, Copenhagen and aard are pissing me off. Nich too, though he sot of showed up.
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02-08-2009 , 07:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrownEyedGirl
WHY IS EVERYTHING I SAY HILARIOUS OR WEIRD????? I am actually trying here. Fake confusion is a wolf trait. Is it not?

I'll just sit here and keep my mouth shut then. Hitch.....tell me who to vote for.

You guys are making me gun shy to even post a single comment.
BEG, don't take things personally. Disagreeing with you is not an attack. The best players say things that get laughed at. Don't worry about it.

Also, please don't pull that "I should stop posting" crap. We already get it from aard, kkc, manupod, etc.
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02-08-2009 , 07:09 PM
atak
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02-08-2009 , 07:12 PM
Here are a few weak statements about aries.
Quote:
Originally Posted by atakdog
MMM is right that BEG gets considerably more village credit than I for the Luckay vote (for the reason he says). Meanwhile, aries is defending me again, which seems fine except that it doesn't match his overall participation level (because, as XX or m1ke, I forget which, said, it does drop when he's a wolf, but it's more than that -- more a ratio of original content to reactions). He did explain part of it, but the feeling I get from his posts is subtly off -- except I think wolf aries would be more anti-me.
Then atak calls Aries and me out on not posting herbies vote for luckay.
Quote:
Originally Posted by atakdog
I just noticed something interesting (and probably not worth much, but let's get it out there): This morning when AG and Aries each made their cases that Luckay was probably not the peek, kkc was, neither of them included this post of Herbie's:
... in their posts discussing the issue. Odd, as it is moderately peeklike.
Yes, I do believe kkc was the peek, but in the unlikely event he turns out to be a villager we might keep this in mind.
I responded with this that includes a quote of my post and my response to Aries.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndrewGreve
Actually I assumed lucky was the certain peek. and posted this as the other possible peek.
then i wrote this:
his response to me:
Quote:
Originally Posted by atakdog
That makes sense. Ungood assumption, as you can now see, but I get it.
then aries responds:
Quote:
Originally Posted by AriesRam
Atak,
In my seer analysis post, I had gone through and multiquoted anything that looked seerish. I took the stuff about Luckay out because I believed that kkc was the peek. Below the posts I quoted, I laid out why I felt LL was not the peek.
and this is ataks response to that:
Quote:
Originally Posted by atakdog
I'm remembering that you usually do it differently, quoting everything that may be relevant and coming to your conclusion or conclusions at the end. As I started to respond, though, I remembered that that's how you analyze (non-seer) night kills -- is that what I was thinking of? It struck me as unArieslike, but I may have been thinking only of the NK analysis approach.
then aries responds:
Quote:
Originally Posted by AriesRam
I used to analyze like you said. Then ZT nailed me partly b/c I did throw everything up there. I still don't get how he got to that concl;usion (damn him), but he was right in that it makes more sense to eliminate the posts that sound like seer posts, but have mitigating circumstances that eliminate/reduce teh chance of it being a real peek. Ever since I have scaled back my quoting posts in that situaition.
And I dont recall the last time I made a post specifically trying to determine dead seer peeks, but how I look/make my posts is similar in both cases. At least it was on d2 and today.
Quote:
Originally Posted by atakdog
Am confused. You stopped doing it because it's clearer this way (with which I disagree, as I think everyone should see your thought process), or you stopped doing it because ZT nailed you (as a wolf, I guess -- I think I remember that) for doing it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by AriesRam
Both.
Yah, i was a wolf. I guess it was chuck. If I get caught out for doing something as a wolf, then I will remember that and try to change it in my next game, in any role. Getting wagoned is bad for my team, regardless of role.
If I was really analyzing every post that is remotely seerish, then it becomes info overload, and I am making losts of notes to the effect of "well he said abc looked villagery, but this is not a peek, due to efg", which takes away from the real posts that should be analyzed.
This exchange sounds w/w to me. I had these in my notes already but Hitch has commented on these things as well so i might be reiterating something that doesnt need to be said.
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02-08-2009 , 07:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by atakdog
No, and you know it. Unless the anwer is clear once you find it. Many times I have talked wolves into go with my candidate, only to have it be wrong, and sometimes the other one is right.

In Toons, I almost talked the rest of the pack out of lynching chim.
Ok. It's not as simple as I was making it but my point is still valid. It's closer to what I was saying than an average. There's nothing stopping a wolf-team from letting one player decide the kill.
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02-08-2009 , 07:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrangeRake
atak
do warm summer breezes spend a little time reading and commenting?

or do they breeze in and out and post sweet FA*?













*Fresh Air
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02-08-2009 , 07:14 PM
Atak if u just spew the rest of your team now we can ship this game and focus on CYOA!

shroop shroop!
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02-08-2009 , 07:14 PM
If I get lynched to today and OR is a villager, I am never letting her forget it.
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02-08-2009 , 07:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrangeRake
atak
Plese make a case.
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02-08-2009 , 07:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by matrix
do warm summer breezes spend a little time reading and commenting?

or do they breeze in and out and post sweet FA*?
Warm summer breezes don't even pay attention to the thread until final 7, unless they're wolf breezes.
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02-08-2009 , 07:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by atakdog
If I get lynched to today and OR is a villager, I am never letting her forget it.
That's fine, people make mistakes...
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