lets so how long this lasts...

oh what a surprise that didn't last long at all.

ya i was angry this morning bc annie (who i was begggging to lynch) somehow pulled out a bogus draw in the suess game. i said myself that i was "unreal tilted" about it so im not sure why you'd be surprised that i was angry. as long as u are digging up my massive sample of (ONE!) villa games to compare to, why don't you bring up all my wolf games where i basically post as little as possible, cause no confrontations, draw as little attn as possible, and basically make some multiquotes with commentary-ish reads trying to blend in. my wolf game seems real consistent with offering multiple thunderdomes and changing my vote about 19 times ya?

no, its not even the entirety of my day 1 in that game afaik. and yes i would completely agree that my style changes from game to game and even day to day. what doesn't change is debo tunnelling me in every single game we play together.

***NOT IN GAME***

putting this back on front page after archiving a bunch of threads

***NOT IN GAME***

Leaving it at "for reasons I've previously stated" has the problem that many readers will not remember what those reasons were. (Observe, if you will, Hoya later asking me why I found Dye and Derm wolfy.) I thought linking to the posts would improve the chances of getting a wagon going.

When Gazz is put under pressure, he sounds defensive and kind of tilted in any role. I don't think it's a good tell on him. He's easier to read when he's not defending himself.

i disagree.
the magic tell was reliable. villagery outrage isnt easy to fake if youre a wolf.
i went back and forth on him because im trying not to apply this tell since he announced in pregame that he is gonna try and not be so defensive.
aorn he is on my neutral list. maybe slightly leaning towards the wolfy side but far away from me wanting to lynch him today.

Did you read the Seuss game to the end? I did. NLS's tone in this game has been rather similar to his tone at the later stages of the Seuss game. Comparing day ones to find differences in tone seems dishonest to me.

In the paragraph you quote, NLS is sponging McAvoy hard. "mac says were not lynching thenothing thats good enough for me for now. and i happen to agree with him that derm has been quite wolfy." I don't understand how you can miss it.

Wagons are 3-3 CQ-LL

LL jumps on CQ - perfectly reasonable thing to do as a villager in this spot, neutral

Tapp joins next, 5-3 CQ-LL. Tapp's first mention of CQ was just 5 mins before voting for him (post 224), calls him 'a solid choice' without explaining why. If LL ends up flipping wolf then Tapp had a very wolfy eod. If LL is a villa then it's a neutral eod.

NLSoldier makes it 6-3 CQ without having mentioned him previously. Goes debo > ronni > derm > CQ in a fairly short space of time without offering any reasoned explanation for any of the votes. NLS had a bad eod after a wolfy day in general, he's my top wolf right now.

TheNothing makes it 7-3. Her thoughts on LL/CQ in post 145:

So i'm not sure what happened there. She even comments on LL's growing wolfiness in post 186 'do not like Larry's attitude here. seems like he's trying to get votes. ' If LL is a wolf this is bad, but if LL flips villa im giving major villa points to TheNothing. A wolf would be very careful not to contradict themselves like that unless they were trying to save a team-mate. I dont think TheNothing and LL are ever W/V after this series of posts from TN.

HiFi makes it 8-4 to CQ after just kinda chillin out all of d1. I dont think theres anything that can be read into this vote. HiFi, it would be good if you could post some reads today.

Aksdal had a weird day all round, I get a villagery vibe from his frantic eod posting and chopping & changing, I dont think a wolf would expose themselves like that.

cliffs from eod CQ votes:

IF LL = W, Tapp = possible W
IF LL = W, TN = W. If LL = V, TN = V * I feel very strongly about this one
Aksdal = V
NLS = W

Next up ill take a look at LL votes

Heh, Bowens was arguing the opposite. In any case, here are a few quotes from a recent wolf game of his:



I'm pretty sure that victimized, defensive tone is no kind of tell with him. Maybe the amount of anger differs. Do we have any Gazz connoisseurs in the thread?

By the time I returned to the thread for EoD, others had already explained why CQ looked wolfy. My first choice was Dye and I waited as long as I could for people to jump on that wagon. When it started to look like the vote was between CQ and Larry, I voted for the one I thought was wolfier.

Then Larry threw away his 20th post of the day to say he hated his vote on CQ and I briefly entertained visions of sniping him for it.

this is why i find you wolfy basaint.
NLS jumps around from wagon to wagon and you give him an understandable wolf lean.
then you comment on Aksdal who you say had a "frantic eod posting and chopping & changing" and say "I dont think a wolf would expose themselves like that.".
isnt that basically the same thing NLS did?
why do you differentiate here?
the easiest answer i can come up with is your a wolf and NLS i a possible easy mislynch while it would be much harder to get an Aksdal wagon going.

no doubt youre a smart guy so i think youre 100% capable of making villagery posts as a wolf but i dont see the same logic you used in our last game together.
even tho i was a wolf your posts had an inherently villagery feel to it.
im really missing it this game.
also you posted 7 times after telling me you werent gonna waste posts.
tbh it feels like you just posted as little as possible.
i mean you were obviously here at eod while giving little to no feedback.
that doesnt feel like the villager basaint ive seen previously. if youre a villager here i believe youre gonna use up all the posts you can. especially that shortly before eod.

you scream wolf to me so lets just make it official.
BASaint

ive played some game with magic. iirc he was in every single game ive played since i started playing again. thats ~7-8 long games.
i feel like i can read him, not 100% but realiably enough.
and the read of him getting too defensive as a villager plays a huge role in it.
if it wouldnt why would he even say in pregame that he will try to not do it anymore? he realises it and wants to change his game.
its not an exact science but its definitively one of the better tone reads i have.

Studying LL votes is going to be less useful since we dont know his alignment, but here goes:

I dont like the early phase of the LL wagon, it got started by debo for the complete nonsense reason of 'its win/win because he sucks as a villager'.. Although in practise this sort of bad reasoning doesn't tend to be from wolves since its very easy to pick apart on re-read. I dont think a wolf starts a wagon in this manner, so although I think his reasoning was anti-village, debo gets villa points from me.

Gazz jumps on to make it 3-3 with 'because hes not even trying'. Again, I think this is lame but also villagery.

There is then about 5 CQ votes in a row. If LL is a wolf in this spot then I dont think his fellow wolves try to bus him here. They would be satisfied with proceedings and unlikely to try to mix it up. Otoh, if LL is a villager, its quite reasonable for wolves to jump on him late if they think CQ is going to die. It gives them credit for voting what we think might be a wolf at this point. Booker, derm and Telcontar voted for LL late..

in post 255 Booker votes for LL, without having mentioned him previously. As with HiFi its impossible to conclude anything from this because Booker is not posting reads yet.

derm votes for LL late, parroting Gazz' logic 'if LL is a villager he isnt trying'. I noticed something kinda interesting in the game I was modding, wolves seemed to use similar words and phrases to eachother, presumably without meaning to, especially if they had been chatting about that thing in wolfchat. Im not confident in that as a read but i'll be interested to ask about it in postgame if Gazz & derm are w/w. Anyway, I dont like the logic much but I suspect a wolf would be more 'srs biz' about their reasons for voting at eod, so villa pts for derm regardless of LL's affiliation. Also, derm made it kinda close between CQ and LL, so if LL flips wolf I think derm is ~lock villa.

Same logic for Telcontar, whos vote made it 6/7. If LL flips wolf then ~0% chance Tel is also a wolf.

Thinking on, Adksal's late vote for CQ is pretty terrible if LL is a wolf.


Also want to address this from derm, I thought CQ was wolfy after he tried to start wagons on soft utr targets and said as much.

Because I know NLS's wolf game well and jumping around/spazzing/providing no content or explanation with his reads is 100% compatible. With no prior reads im assuming that doing those things, especially if its from an experienced player such as Ads, is villagery.

NLSoldier forgot to vote

Gazz was an utter spastic in the dragon tattoo game when I tunnelled him. He flipped out major style and called me a moron x10, he was a neutral so I dont think emotion from him is a villager tell.

CQ was wolfy but hes CQ. I don't think anyone can be confident enough to lynch him on a d1 unless he's been peeked. I've seen him lynched a couple times on d1s where he's been wolfy and he's never flipped wolf. I didn't think LL was wolfy, thought telc was, and saw him try to snipe so I resniped the better wagon

this post restriction thing is a lot mroe annoying than I remember. I've grown accustomed to posting a ton and haven't realized how much it would affect my game.

So now we have a ton of ppl who shouldn't be able to read CQ, who probably don't know he should never really be lynched on a d1, jumping on his wagon very late. Super frustrating, a lot of ppl are just going to assume that these ppl are way > rand to be wolves.

imo, the thing to look at is how strong ppl think CQ is. The stronger ppl think he is, the more likely they are to be a wolf. The ppl who don't know are more likely to be villagers. I'm not looking back right now, but from my memory, the momentum for CQ started with a BASaint vote. I think he knows better. TheNothing jumped on, but I think she knows better too. TheNothing's vote on Ronny today is also bad. Even if he flips wolf we get the absolute minimum amount of info and tbh, if you've played with him before, you'll know that he is pretty much = rand() to be a wolf based on what he's posted so far. He's a lynch that the wolves are expecting in either role, and going elsewhere will make it tougher for them.

Angel strat: pretty much angel urself like 100% of the time tonight unless you did that yesterday, in which case it doesnt really matter cus you should die tonight. Make sure you'll be able to angel the seer if they need to claim tomorrow so we get 4 peeks.

so you think NLS puts himself out there like this as an utr-ish wolf?




also a general note to all my fellow villagers.
dont save up posts.
ive thought about this and it creates a thread with very little interaction.
for me personally direct interactions arent the most important tool to catch wolves but different players prefer different styles and a thread with very little interaction could lead to bad reads which leads to bad accusations which leads to mislynches etc.. and it lets the wolves make their content posts and cruise along without the all present fear of someone questioning their reads.

i dont want to say post useless oneliners but if you want to ask someone anything about their posts go ahead.
if you have a comment that could be helpful post it.
dont save it up and then forget about it because you felt like you dont have enough to say.
additionaly if everyone plans out all their posts there is gonna be a lot of posts that have that wolfy feel to them.
we should balance this better.

overall i think if you have 5 posts left an hour before eod thats more than enough.


meh to save posts im gonna mq all of larrys posts into a spoiler.



(5)

derm: there is no difference between posting 15 times and posting 5 times if there is 0 content in any of those posts. Other people familiar with NLS' wolf game will share my suspicions I think, and you will hopefully see that my thoughts on NLS are pure.

I think you are right about not holding back too much on posts, I underestimated how much mileage you can get out of 20 posts yesterday.

Vix, I know you are a villager but where are u brah

yea, thus why i asked why iversonian was voting for hoya on d1

bowens joins my villa team and tappokone is knocking at the door but I want to see more before I let him in

lol @ derm calling me a wolf then sponging all of my reads from yesterday.

TheNothing,

You need to step up your pllay today, I won't be protecting you today, you need to work on clearing yourself, your slightly wolfy tbh.

I'm probably gonna take a slightly passive role today unless one of my strong villa leans gets wagonned.

After a bit of thought, I don't find the above to be a credible response to the missing night kill. Consider the following: The sign-up thread featured discussion on how to balance 21ers; giving the village an angel instead of a second seer was mentioned at least twice. The first post in this thread prominently features the lineup, angel and all. Most importantly, Derm just played in the Dr Seuss game, another 21er featuring an angel.

After all that, I find it difficult to believe that Derm would instantly assume that a five-man wolf team failed to submit a night kill - and that this theory is so obvious that he can just post, "yay im clear," instead of explaining why. His response is improbable and unnatural for a villager.

his response was natural, villagery, and dumb

also who reads sign up threads?

Nice waste of a post.

From what I hear, this post is wolfy.

Ok care to tell us who they are? Any guesses?

Your post is just terrible. I dont think people getting tilted by dumb **** is wolfy.

Also comparing a 50 player mish mash with a regular game doesnt make sense, its not the same game. Also I was neutral in that not a wolf, so if I do the same here as in that game it would mean im neutral, therefore not a read at all.

There is a difference between being made to work and people making up dumb stuff to fit their theorys.

More talk of kills, still nothing much here.

Another terrible post from you. You dont know my villager game and apparently you dont know my wolf game either yet somehow you have a good read on me. I call liar.

Not sure why Mac was defending you yesterday. You call NLS EOD wolfy, yet yours was not exactly good and now you follow it up with a vote on someone with 1 post?

If Ronnie doesnt do anything today I suggest we all PM the mod and ask for him to be modkilled. Its anti village to waste lynches on this sort of player.

So you reread him and have nothing of interest to quote? Not even one post?

Agree. Larry did nothing and was just making spazzy posts, all of a sudden CQ is getting lynched, it doesnt look good for those people as CQ was at least posting some content.

You had all day to vote. Who in particular made a good case on CQ that made you want to follow them?

Just a comment on this. The reason I want to try and not be as defensive is it is negative to my game.
In the last couple of games I was villa people cleared me quite early and I kind of lost interest. Then in my last game where I was a wolf people were suspicious of me for not defending myself as much as usual, so I had to fake it to get them to clear me. It did work though.
The point is I dont want to have to fake anger every game just to get cleared. Im probably always going to be an angry/tilty type player, but I dont want that to be my whole game.

Im not sure I get how you work out the different outcomes here, I dont quite follow it. Agree that NLS and TheNothing look the worst from EOD.


Highlights:

Globe is moved off the villager list. His posts have been lacking anything except talk of NK's and strategy. I found his posts a help on day 1 like he was trying to be pro village, but his not coming back and lack of any substance today doesnt make him look good.

Bowens trying to start a wagon on me based on 1 mish mash we played is terrible, especialy as I wasnt even a wolf in that. Im interested if he has any more reasons as to why he would want to start a wagon on me rather than any of the people who look bad from yesterday.

TheNothing looks bad for EOD and for voting Ronnie this morning.

NLSoldier also looks bad for EOD but not as bad as TheNothing in my opinion.

1/20

wat?
let me post all of your reads yesterday:



on the surface it might seem like im sponging your reads but the difference is i gave reasons while you just stated x is villa y is wolf.
that isnt sponging.

yes i agree that its dumb.
i dont really know what i was thinking.
were playing a vanilla game and im not used to vanillas having angels. especially angels that actually hit.
i dont think that ever happened in any vanilla game i played.

but look at it from a wolfs perspective, do you think as a wolf im anxious to get that post out?
if im a wolf i instantly know that the nk was angeled, there wouldnt be a doubt in my mind.
making that post after basically missing yesterdays eod would be an extremely bad play.
the only possible reason would be me intentionally trying to spew me villager.
ive tried to do it before, i think it was in the dr. suess game where i made a post saying there are 17 villagers and 4 wolves in a 21 player game.
but it was in a way more subtle situation.
i cant see myself ever making this post as a wolf here.

Exactly,

I am asking for people to consider that I am a villager, and look over the voting from last night. Anytime you have 3-3 votes with V/V wagons, there is going to be slight anxiety from the wolves.. 3-4 votes can easily put a wolf into the lead, and without direct and immediate intervention, the wolves can go down pretty hard in that spot.

So while we did a bad job of wagoning through out the day, we should get some decent info from last night.

Specifically, when it was clear that the wagons were between me and CQ, I expect that the first people to jump over to CQ were likely villas (maybe only the first person) and the people at the end of the night that voted for me as a snipe vote were way more likely to be wolves...

Especially players that were eager to come in today and call me wolfy.

Also, there are a lot of people who called me varying degrees of wolfy that never had the balls to come after me, and stayed in the middle, those people being: Hifi, NL_Soldier, TheNothing..