wolfy start, but then:

these next three series of posts make me thinks WER is villa. I think it would be tough to make these as a wolf.

villa questioning.

You called one of hoya's posts wolfy, but it was very similar to how you opened the thread. Explain.

wolf probably wouldn't say this. If this is in fact bsball's village, it would be really weird for a wolf to spearhead this conclusion.

I'd like to know where this comes from.

I really want this post explained too.

wolfy post.

Again, either WERx is trying to level us because he got drafted by someone that doesn't really make sense, or, more likely, he got drafted by bsball and is in his village.

yeah, WERx is a villager.

still village.

My conclusion based on these posts is WERx is >rand to be village

95%

So why aren't you just clearing WERx for wanting to lynch your 95% wolf?

ordinarily i would agree, birdman
but like i said a lot of this is what wn and luckay did as wolves in the alpha game, specifically the first three posts you said were villa

i also don't understand how saying it's bsballs village game is clear worthy either. i definitely think it's one of the easiest ways a wolf has to contribute without actually contributing.

I'm fairly certain bsball wouldn't want you to play wolf for him. I know I would put you in a village spot well before I'd put you in a wolf spot.

Funny, I'd do the exact opposite for the exact opposite reason. Everyone is scared of hoya's wolf game.

The question isn't whether you'd say that as a villager, its whether you are more likely to say it as a wolf or a villager. I think its more likely a wolf would say it because:

a) It gives them content and discussion worthy topics that a wolf can easily discuss that won't make them look wolfy.

b) He is trying to shut-down an avenue by which the village can use deductive reasoning to find wolves--why would a villager want to do that?

Because WERx wanted to lynch Cadaz before Cadaz made the two posts that sold me on Cadaz being a wolf. If you read back you'll see the part where I say that I agree with WERx's "lean" but that I found it creepy because he went after him BEFORE Cadaz had even posted.

birdman
how likely do u think bsball is to draft u?

have u played much w/ shortline or cdl? what do they think of your village/wolf games?

That's a good point. It certainly does fall under the category of "helpful information that is easy to point out that doesn't actually help THAT much." Except that I would expect a wolf to say "yeah, this is prolly bsball's village, but its hard to say" whereas WERx has insisted it several (at least 3) times, and even gone to far as to [say he] read the other games and found this one to be bsball's through POE. I don't see a wolf being that insistent on anything that could help the village. But we should certainly keep our eyes out if its a level.

i entirely disagree with both points
firstly, he's encouraging more discussion about what's happening in thread. the very nature of ww means he's putting the thread on a track that will make it more difficult for wolves to hide. as i said before, i think wolves would much rather discuss and manipulate discussion based on draft mechanics rather than not take part in said discussion and instead try to focus on the thread itself.

secondly, the reason why i said it strikes me as something i would say as a villa is because he's NOT trying to shut it down. he's saying it's alright but we need more discussion on the thread itself. this is perfectly reasonable and strikes me as pro villa

I definitely think that of those three, bsball is the most likely to draft me. CDL has basically no respect for my game and doesn't really like me as a person either. The only way he'd draft me is as a level--a strategy I don't think he'd employ for me.

I don't think shorty thinks I'm terrible, and between my wolf/village game, I think he would be more likely to put me as a wolf. I think he thinks my wolf game is better relative to my village game. The only way I think shorty my draft me is because, while bsball thinks I'm good, I think he thinks I'm underrated among most other people on POG (certainly shorty and CDL), and so would think he could steal me very late in the draft. As a consequence, short may have been able to pick me up as a lower middle pick for good value.

The most likely scenario, though, is that bsball drafted me. I think thats pretty obvious given we are pretty good friends irl (see his new custom undertitle). If he did draft me, I he would be most likely to put me as villager. He has absolutely not respect for my wolf game (he being a decent wolf) and constantly says that while my village game is decent, my wolf game is basically non-existant. I tend to agree with him to his face fairly often. He'd only put me as a wolf as a level. The other reason I think strategically it makes sense to have me in his village is I know more than almost anyone his opinions of various players and therefore who he is likely to draft and what roles to give them. That knowledge would be much better used on a village team.

Of course, all this is moot, because I am a villager.

i will say there's >80% chance werx/cadaz is w/v so lynching either should give us some really good info to go on for future days

These two paragraphs are contradictory. Either he is trying to shut down the discussion of mechanics so the village will be better at finds wolves (which I think is wolfy because draft mechanics would help the village imo), or he is trying to have the village talk about something that isn't wolf hunting ("hey, we should discuss whether draft mechanics can be helpful to the game") which is a VERY good hiding spot for wolves. Discussion isn't it itself good for the village. Only discussion that will lead to lynches. Discussion about game mechanics, the principles of winning a draft based ww game, etc, are all great places for wolves to talk a lot without having to worry about being wolfy.

Sorry but this is just silly. I don't know if you're exaggerating deliberately but it's not possible to be this certain of a wolf on d1, even of a game with extra information like this one, unless you're a wolf with them. I don't have any real reason to believe you're a wolf yet but posts like this really annoy me.

Personally WER is strongest wolf read so far based partly on tone and partly on content. KR is my strongest village read so far and I don't think it's just because his reads are similar to mine, although that's probably part of it. I actually think atakdog is my next strongest wolf read, which is strange because normally I can't read him at all but there's something about his posts so far that have just given me that impression.

gonna change my mind a little bit on the second point
while it strikes me as something villa-keanu would say, its also very wishy-washy in a wolfy kind of way. i would really like to see cadaz here posting more

(imperfect copy/paste on phone, sorry)

re b, I don't think that's a good argument, because iirc the post he was commenting on touched on seer selection. I agree that that's not a topic I think we should discuss in detail atm. It's not inherently villagery to try to shut off that avenue, but it's not wolfy either because the conversation itself is so antivillage.

Speaking of which: Sun is greater than rand to be wolf, for that reason and draft mechanics. Against that, his tone wasn't really his wolf tone, but we'll need to keep it in mind.

alright yeah birdman has to be a villager (not a peek)

i can see how it would be contradictory but i don't think it's enough to warrant a really strong read. i will say cadaz needs to start participating more so we can get more concrete evidence on what role he is.

well unless shortline got to draft him first,
but basically watch how useful he is/what info on bsballs likely village picks he shares. (saying this in case i die)

Oh yeah, forgot to mention Cadaz in that post. I can't remember what games I've played with him before but my main memory of him is that he always sounds wolfy to people, which is why I'm not sold on him being a wolf. His post about not liking the draft theory stuff I don't find wolfy since it was pretty much what I was thinking at the time (I now think there probably is more use than I first gave credit for but I still think some people are putting way too much weight in it). Assuming he didn't play in the first draft games I don't think it's a wolfy post at all and maybe even slightly villagery. If he did play in them then I would give it a bit more weight as being wolfy.

Willd: it is indeed strange. What games are you thinking of in which you couldn't read me? Does it include recent games, or others in which my availability was or was expected to be sporadic?

birdman
who do u think bsball would of drafted for his village team from our game?

Fine. If I say 85%, is that ok?

actually
i might have to take back my atak clearing

cdl or shortline are probably more likely to draft atak.
maybe.

gonna check my aim logs

Assuming this is bsball's village game, the following people are ones I would expect him to draft as villagers more likely than the other two captains:

Birdman (me, ldo)
xxsooted
xxaces
wiild
WinEvryRacex

Basically this means people I think are relatively underrated by the other two captains or overrated by bsball. CPHoya, for example, is rated highly by the other captains and so is no more likely to be on bsball's team than any others.

this was for WERx (any anyone else who wanted my opinion).