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Gunfight at the POG Corral Gunfight at the POG Corral

03-13-2011 , 01:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CPHoya
One of my hesitations about CDL being a wolf is if the wolves planned a fake claim there - which would be pretty lolwolves - they would be likely to at least get it right. There are, like, several of them working on it (presumably).
i know this is stupid, but im hoping CDL is telling the truth about being seer.

here's the villas that died yesterday. only vuruth, jonny, and birdpoker are likely seer candidates

i suppose we should reread them for peeks on their targets...

forsy no shot
markk no shot
vuroth no effect on donkdonk (then killed by exo)
wowluck no shot
FV discombob aao
okse no shot
fcbl randed off mets, killed forsy
jonnyd no effect on kwami (then killed by wer)
bird no effect on me (then killed by oti)
bremen no shot
enty no shot
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote
03-13-2011 , 01:51 AM
Ok looked it up. Sooted's shot got posted "no effect" at 11:58, Dean shot wowlucky at 12:09

Gun to my head, I'd still say Dean was sponging off sooted to get an easy mis-kill, but if one of those pairings is w/w I'd say it's really tight between TL/JD and XXs/Dean.
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote
03-13-2011 , 01:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonnyd
shoot kwami42
Quote:
Originally Posted by O. Prime
no effect
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonnyd
Oh wtf
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonnyd
Someone else shoot kwami pleaaase
well hello there, possible kwami=wolf peek...
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote
03-13-2011 , 01:55 AM


i totally forgot about that [at the time it looked like jonnyd could have powered kwami's armor]

def. loooks bad for kwami.
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote
03-13-2011 , 01:56 AM
VUROTH reread. possible donkdonk wolf peek, but i dont love it bc of how d4 played today

Quote:
Originally Posted by vuroth
shoot DonkDonkDonkDonk

Explanation: Wanted to shoot someone who voted 64 last night. Recently read through mistborn, so DonkDonkDonkDonk and KeanuReaver jumped out at me. So did CPHoya with his self-shoot. Reread all 3. D4 is my best bet for a wolf out of the 3.

Pondered esse, but since my early read on 64 was wolfy, too, I'm on the fence. Obv we disagreed as time went on, but that can be v/v very easily.

Anyways, fingers crossed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by VayaConDios
villagy
Quote:
Originally Posted by VayaConDios
Obviously I'm a wolf and saying that before d4 flips wolf in order to score villa points
Quote:
Originally Posted by VayaConDios
Spoiler:
(not actually a wolf)
Quote:
Originally Posted by O. Prime
no effect
Quote:
Originally Posted by vuroth
Well, lots of reasons for that to happen, I guess. Still, early in the day, he's my best lean

DonkDonkDonkDonk
Quote:
Originally Posted by exoendo
i think vuroth is a sus utr







shoot vuroth
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote
03-13-2011 , 01:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by alice16
well hello there, possible kwami=wolf peek...
Ugh I even noted that yesterday, and called jonny villagery for it. WERx said it was wolfy, and never explained why iirc. Good spot.

I still don't get why someone like wowlucky can't be a seer.
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote
03-13-2011 , 01:59 AM
im not even rereading birdpoker bc i know afterwards (when i got to the thread) he didn't push me at all. he even at one point said his shot on me was based on bad logic.



soooooo.....

if CDL really didn't have the villa gun yesterday, it's likely one of Jonny/Vuroth/Birdpoker had it

and based on their reactions post "peek"...it's likeliest that kwami=wolf (or alice=villa)
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote
03-13-2011 , 01:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WinEvryRacex


i totally forgot about that [at the time it looked like jonnyd could have powered kwami's armor]

def. loooks bad for kwami.
Well I guess you explained why now

And now I see what you were saying about seers, alice. Of the people who shot, gotcha.
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote
03-13-2011 , 02:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by alice16
and based on their reactions post "peek"...it's likeliest that kwami=wolf (or alice=villa)
Didn't we have a long discussion about leaving super clear peeks once you got them? In fact it was CDL who suggested bolding them in blue iirc.

But yeah bad for kwami, plus he hasn't done anything, right?
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote
03-13-2011 , 02:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by legend42
Ugh I even noted that yesterday, and called jonny villagery for it. WERx said it was wolfy, and never explained why iirc. Good spot.

I still don't get why someone like wowlucky can't be a seer.
it's not that he can't (and certainly if Sooted is wolf/seer and peeked him villa seer, then Dean killed him for it)

it's a guessing game based on "posting times". it doesn't tell too much, but i'm willing to put kwami on a suspect list for it

the seer is likely to shoot as soon as possible.

none of these ppl shot:

forsy
markk
wowlucky
okse
bremen
enty

i guess i can go back and see if they were posting at all. zzzzzzzzzzz
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote
03-13-2011 , 02:06 AM
good odds of one of markk, okse (if he's alive) holding the alien gun, imo.

our village vig hasn't been shooting at night...
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03-13-2011 , 02:06 AM
I wouldn't bother for most of them. I definitely remember Mark or wowlucky not being around at the time. And like I said, there was a looong time between TL's and JD's shot on Bremen.

My last hope for Chips was as seer. I still don't get why he shot me if he's a villager, other than as seer. I don't remember him leaving any kind of peek, though.
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote
03-13-2011 , 02:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WinEvryRacex


i totally forgot about that [at the time it looked like jonnyd could have powered kwami's armor]

def. loooks bad for kwami.
that's why you shot at him?
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote
03-13-2011 , 02:22 AM
I'm sticking to my Vaya read. He posted at 12:39 this afternoon. Then nothing. Elliot announces his "peek" at 12:27, along with wahoo's suit.

Andy talks about shooting wahoo. Vaya beats him by shooting wahoo at 1:30. Three minutes seems just about right for wolves to make a snap decision there. Obviously wahoo is getting killed by someone soon. Why not clear a wolf? Everyone seems to accept it and pretty soon he's in bold blue on esse's village list.

Add to that the timing tells of the Swiitch suit. Then his illogical reply to my suspicion and gone for the night.

You want to put CDL up against Vaya for rollz vs. me, alice?
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote
03-13-2011 , 02:23 AM
another small thing to keep in mind:

there are some suits where a return of "no effect" severly narrows the shooter down to seer - or pinpoints it immediately

if anyone is wearing a bugs suit and is shot at, and "no effect" shows up itt, the target knows 100% they were peeked

w/ ice/fire, if "no effect" appears, the target knows tehy were peeked or shot w/ a sniper rifle

etc.

so it's not terrible to keep track of anyone who shoots at these "no effect" shooters
(exo & wer)
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote
03-13-2011 , 02:24 AM
pssh, anyone clearing vaya for that shot is crazy
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03-13-2011 , 02:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by alice16
pssh, anyone clearing vaya for that shot is crazy
Then move CDL further up the crazy list:

Quote:
Originally Posted by CalledDownLight
wolves will not shoot to kill fellow wolves in this game. im certain of this. if they want to prove me wrong theyre free to do so, but it shouldnt really be considered yet.
This was is reference to Vaya shooting wahoo.

Maybe we're both right!
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote
03-13-2011 , 02:32 AM
i just remembered something else:

when i came home from work last night and was very vocal about "no more shooting" (to reduce the "no effect" pool and possibly prevent the wolves from getting in their seer and IllQ shots) there were some specific ppl who were very AGAINST me

esse was one
TL was another
(and chips)

i'll have to look back for others, but:

intersting that TL/JD are one of the late "pairs" shooters (possible wolf seer shooters)
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote
03-13-2011 , 02:42 AM
i kinda like the TL = wolf seer theory.

ps: chips wasn't hugely against my theory. i was mistaken.

but check out the HUGE ****ING REACTION i get from Esse/JD/TL:

this is from last night, in order:

Quote:
Originally Posted by TimeLady
shoot bremen
Quote:
Originally Posted by alice16
just got in and have a lot ot catch up on, but:

i dont know if it's been mentioned, but when i left at 2pm, we were already at numbers where it's providing wolf cover if we keep shooting.

there should be cease fire from now on. i hope you understand what i'm getting at (and how the more ppl that shoot, the harder it is to find wolves)
Quote:
Originally Posted by essedarius
where's the fun in that?
Quote:
Originally Posted by O. Prime
no effect
Quote:
Originally Posted by alice16
but you know what im saying right?

everytime someone shoots and it results in "no effect" in the thread, that person goes into an auto wolf suspect pool.

keep the pool small/manageable imo.

also, saying this now can put pressure on the wolf seer and wolf IllQ holders. they need to take a shot today to have any benefit of their guns.

if they haven't taken their shot already, tough ****.

don't give them anymore cover to take it!
Quote:
Originally Posted by kowboys4
no no no. There are 11 wolves. Villagers dropped like flies. We need to even the score. Someone needs to shoot rebonk.


@ hifi. It was his placing on TheDean's lists. He looks like he was grouping people together.


Also im going to go look at the wagons yesterday when Rebonk had the lead.
Quote:
Originally Posted by essedarius
I think you're half wrong

if we don't shoot then the villa alien gun and seer doesn't have cover at all or can't use their weapons
Quote:
Originally Posted by alice16
on the offchance it hasn't been discussed already:

(for effect)

OMGOMGOGMG LISTEN!


everytime someone shoots and it results in "no effect" in the thread, that person goes into an auto wolf suspect pool.

keep the pool small/manageable imo.



STOP SHOOTING
Quote:
Originally Posted by HiFi
Agreed. There should be little to no additional shooting today.
Quote:
Originally Posted by alice16
[to esse]
lol, what do you really think is better at this stage: having a villa vig and/or one extra peek OR:

having 10 players and being able to say: there should be two wolves here
Quote:
Originally Posted by essedarius
villa vig and seer
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimeLady
[to esse]
exactly

you're helping the wolves by doing that since they can remove any wolves from that pool and find the villa vig and seer even easier
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimeLady
[to me]
seer and vig ldo?
Quote:
Originally Posted by essedarius
and I'm pretty sure bigger made this game so we'd shoot a lot and have fun

of course I care about winning too, a lot, but lets just start shooting better
Quote:
Originally Posted by J.D.
Alice and HiFi, call me stupid but I dont get it.

Lets say the village has seer guns/vig guns and can only post in the evening, you want to deprive them of a chance of helping the village?

FWIW, I havent shot yet, but the reason is because I wanted more info at my disposal before I did, since I hadnt read much of D1.

I do plan on shooting. its why I signed up for this monster game. And its why all I can do is laugh and shake myhead at CDL, who wants to turn every mish-mash with guns into a vanilla game.

Cliffs:I am shooting. dont like it, tough patootie.
Quote:
Originally Posted by alice16
lol esse and TL

those are not "villa vig and seer" those are "ppl with guns"

the villa vig and seer should not feel like it's THEIR gun. it's expected to be taken from them at night.

the villagers are EXPECTED to steal those guns tonight. otherwise, are you just going to let the wolves steal from the "no effect" villas???

wat
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimeLady
Ok, say in your example, you have 10 players and 2 are wolves. 2 are the villa vig and seer.

That night, the wolves will steal from THE EIGHT REMAINING PLAYERS.

Do you really think it's worth giving the wolves AN EXTRA VIG AND PEEK and denying the village it's VIG AND PEEK just so you can find TWO WOLVES?

Spoiler:
no
Quote:
Originally Posted by alice16
jd - im not saying everyday ldo.

im saying TODAY.

we have a chance today to forfeit a potential peek and vig and in exchange gain a seriously reduced wolf suspect pool

all villagers should be trying to steal for the guns of the "no effect" anyway - because that's what wolves are doing
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimeLady
it seems to me like you're the one who's going to let the wolves steal from the no effect villas

more cover = better. end of story
Quote:
Originally Posted by J.D.
isnt it just as likely that the wolves have or have not shot as the villagers with the same weapons?

your case if pretty much exactly =rand if you assume the weapons are equally dispersed villa/wolves.

and the wolves know who they are which puts us way behind in that regard.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimeLady
alice why did you wait until the end of the day with the monumental theory and not post it earlier? At this point, it's fairly worthless, over half the playerpool has already fired.
Quote:
Originally Posted by J.D.
How many villagers are we down TODAY?

we need all the damn help we can get. A peek is super valuable in this game, its a target off the table for the whole game.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andynan
this this this
Quote:
Originally Posted by alice16
lol monumental theory.

i didn't realize it till i was at work. i exported teh posts from about 11am-2pm so i could look over the shooting stats at work.

and try to deduce things (like hifi/mets can't have the same gun; any pair shooters could be govida+wolf; all no effects can be w/w doubling up)
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimeLady
Ok, from a wolf POV, I absolutely think that the wolf seer/vig would have taken their shot very early today, perhaps as soon as they got itt. Esecpailly the wolf seer (since if their killed they still have the info they needed). Villagers are going to be more inclined to wait until the end of the day when more info has arisen.

So I think that atm you're just hindering any village PRs that haven't shot yet with very little tradeoff in terms of actually finding wolves
Quote:
Originally Posted by J.D.
plus, its far more likely the wolves just shoot to make sure they get their shot in, whereas the villager might wait for more info.

as a matter of fact, I just thought of another reason, more cover is def better.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimeLady
I like the phrase monumental theory

and ok then, but I think it'd be a somewhat plausible theory (even though I wouldn't have gone for it) earlier in the day, but right now it's not very applicable
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote
03-13-2011 , 02:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CPHoya
That was me when the claim made some sense and we didn't want you to kill any villagers on your way out.

Ahem. Cough cough.


ok

Quote:
Originally Posted by CPHoya
I also never understood how you could believe/know you were discombobulated but not realize it was me when we were arguing earlier, but we won't get into that I guess.

...

It's very odd.
Quote:
Originally Posted by CPHoya
Wondering if HiFi can answer this.
I'm not around for too long but I wanted to address this. I wasn't fully caught up on the thread, but I was pretty sure that I wanted to shoot someone so I tried to arm myself. I obviously couldn't do it because I was discombobulated, so that's how I found out.
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote
03-13-2011 , 02:44 AM
If I had a vote, I would be voting swiitch
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03-13-2011 , 02:45 AM
no one is going to read that, but please click on the top post i quoted and read down the page.

two outed wolves are heavily campaigning for me to STFU about the ceasefire.

and in the middle of it: TimeLady...who just got a shot off on Breman (who JD is going to shoot, after he deals w/ my "insane theory" first)

???

JD wants to shoot

why did he want to shoot Breman so badly tho?

and why are 2/3 of the ppl freaking out on my theory wolves??
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote
03-13-2011 , 02:46 AM
hifi, enjoy a few villa points for not being one of the wolves freaking out on me yesterday
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote
03-13-2011 , 02:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HiFi


ok





I'm not around for too long but I wanted to address this. I wasn't fully caught up on the thread, but I was pretty sure that I wanted to shoot someone so I tried to arm myself. I obviously couldn't do it because I was discombobulated, so that's how I found out.
So you got a discombobulation pm?
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote
03-13-2011 , 02:48 AM
But would 3 wolves have made that campaign without any villa support?
Gunfight at the POG Corral Quote

      
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