Just for now.

Chuck = wolf.
Bob + Amp are tem wolf here allot also.
Bpm, tar and aar make up the remainder of the wolf team from within their number.
Books and Mdd are not clear yet, but I think they are not wolf.

The wolf NK confirms that aar is NOT gf, correct?

Afternoon village caught up at last - real life has kept me afk for last 2 days apologies to all for that.

I hope he peeked me too
Otherwise you will have to mislynch me and that could be all she wrote
Chim has played v.well and even when outed and lynched he is going to make sure another villager gets it.

Hitch i don't think Chuck is wolf - his rant at clown seemed far to heartfelt to be a wolf play.

The wolf nightkill serves only to implicate me.
seer dies peeking me; village has to wagon me - perfect result for team wolf.

anyone saying chuck is not a wolf because of that rant is almost certainly a wolf. Dude had 6 hours or so to put something sincere-seeming together. It's semi-possible that chuck is villa, but someone else agreed with chim last night that chuck seemed villager from his rant, and that person is a wolf.

lol at vader not being a wolf.

aard seems to be a wolf now too, but whoever said he was reminiscent of mithras in ASXIX is exactly right.

We have 12 people, which is 4 wolves, the 2 neutrals, and 6 villagers/seers. I'm thinking that we should help the bounty hunter track down the SK tonight, but I'm not positive. What I propose is this:
We should only give advice to the BH if identifies himself.
We give him our best advice (but not so good as to absolutely id the SK).
SK will be forced to kill the BH, in case he makes a mistake.
Wolfies might have to kill the SK (e.g., in the case where our best SK-target is actually a wolf.)
???
Profit.

We should end up with 5 villagers (maybe 6 in the best case), against 3 wolfies, which is not bad, plus the identity of the BH and SK should clear things up a lot. Comments?

books is the vote for today, i think.

Wow, D's 1, 2 +3 are full of good stuff now we have a different angle to see it from, coming up are my re-reads of the first 3 days, going through every player that is still alive, and not seer peeked as villa.

First, aar.

First post isn't until #356, where he comes in and basically posts no content. This screams, newbie in a power role to me.

His second post, #497 is a Vote for Bob.
This would suggest to me that the the chances of Bob AND Aar both being wolfs are very slim, because at the time the board read like this -

And I think that wolf Aar votes Clown here, and almost never Bob if Bob is also wolf. As we know now clown is villa and chim is wolf.

That's all I have on Aar right now, which is a shame, and I don't like it. As I have allready said, his line of not posting seems wolfy to me.

Chuck IMO

Amplify -

The first post worth noting of Amp's is #122 which is just an early D1 vote for Chim. Seems possible early fellow wolf vote for value down the road, as at the time there seemed little chance that Chim would actually wind up getting lynched. Thoughts?

Then early on D2, #359, votes Chim again. It is a very early vote and possibly for the same reason as above? I dunno, maybe I'm just thinking that because I'm looking for it, i'd like to hear others opinions of how amp would vote early in the game as a wolf. But the reason this vote becomes interesting is yet to be revealed.

#412 makes the voting looks wolfy, as Amp switches votes to switch just as a Chim wagon starts to build some steam.

Then Amp makes a more villagery vote-change. In #462 The vote changes to me. Seems like a wolf would be more likely to vote clown there to make it more likely that Chim gets saved.

But then in #514, the vote change to clown comes. This makes it extremely more likely that Chim, Bob and Amp are all team wolf imo, thoughts? Coupled with the fact that Amp's vote in post #555 effectively saves Bob from lynch with seconds to spare.

Re-reading Amp has made me lean Amp and Bob = w/w.

Now Bob -

His general voting and discussion on D1 seems to bring allot of unnescesary heat on him if he is, in fact, a wolf.

Posts #266 and #268 form Chim
Obviously look like bob=villa too, but I think Chim is certainly capable of playing like this if Bob is wolf. The question is, which way should these posts lean us? Anyone know Chim well enough to answer that?

Then in post#309, Chim changes his vote to Nich, so that certainly lessens the amount of weight we can give to the above posts clearing Bob as village.

#347 Bob casts the first vote of D2, Chim. Seems like a good spot to get a wolf vote in while there is no wagon? Of course it could be nothing. Just stuck out as something that might have come out in wolfchat? Having never been a wolf I don'k know, would it go down like that?

I think also that the general interaction between Chim and Bob is wolfy when they were both the leading wagons. Neither were looking for reasons for others to vote for the other. They were both, of course, pointing out why they were villa, but not pointing out why the other may be a wolf, which would seem strange to me if Bob is villa. The only exception is a run of a few posts between #475 and #480.

Then, while clowngate was all over the news, very early on D3 Chim tries to brush the whole Bob and He being the leading wagons the previous day under the rug with this post -
Which is conveniently, virtually the last thing Chim says to bob on the subject. as soom as he and bob are no longer under pressure.

Post #580 has Bob posting a list -
Which amazingly has 6 people in but now 5 of which are either dead or peeked.

I would say that this post raises the chance that MDD is a wolf, or that one of me or reno is gf, IF Bob turns up lupine.

That's all I have on D's 1,2+3 on Bob, so I have him as wolf for now.

I mean seriosuly how can we not lynch this guy. ARGGHH its frustrating when i feel like ive had one really strong wolf read the whole game yet cant get him lynched. This post just reconfirms it....i mean ANY TRUE VILLAGER WOULD WANT THE SK TRYING TO KILL WOLVES. But this whole post just kills me. Why the F would the BH ever identify himself? It would just mean he would lose right? Ugh


bobman

for F's sake bobman people.

Monk -

ok, so monk makes his first 11 posts (#s 211, 214, 441, 442, 446, 448, 449, 455, 518, 528 and 531) and they contain zero helpfull content. Is this usual for monk? Until I hear it is, this gives me a slight wolf lean.

In #535 with the board looking like this- He makes a one word post voting for clown. That is consistent with Monk, Bob and Chim = wolf.

#694 is his first comment with any strategy, and it is a very simply basic abc type strat comment that I think we all knew, so I don't think it adds to villages. I mean, in a 700 post thread, this was the first piece of intelligence he could offer?

I then went on a 100post tear up/tilt because he accused me of being a wolf lol. I am not trying to gloss over that, and am aware that it may not help with regard to my opinion of him being a wolf.

During that period, he offered his only 'thinking' input in the whole thread, and they were exclusively on two subjects. is clow a seer? Is Hitch a wolf?

The former was going to be cleared up soon enough anyway, and the latter was obviously wrong. It seems strange that he decides to get so animated and thoughtfull over these two things, and not mention another post for like two days before that.

slight wolf lean, but he's down the list.

Chuckles -

He is my prime target for wolfism.

He votes for clown in post #427, as Chim and Bob are getting wagoned. Then in post #452 He is pushing for clown votes as Chim and bob take the lead as the two main wagons. The only time he has pushed for anyone all game.

#471 is a post by Chim where he very subtly defends Chuckles. Nicely done btw Chim.

I also happen to believe that wolf chuck makes that 'in-thread' rant. The title of it is wolfy as hell 'don't read this unless you're clown' lol.

Top of my list.

MDoranD -

I think MDD is village, here's briefly why.
In post #373, wolf MDD votes OH there almost always, he didn't.
Post#s 618 and 641 are the culmination of two days of gunning for Bob, and I think bob AND MDD are almost never both wolfs.

Strong villager lean. Will look again if bob is cleared.

Norse and Reno have both been peeked as village, so I went straight to tarheeljks -

Not much here obviously, this little content seems normal from tar?

his first post is no content at #231, followed by another filler post at 315.

This is very weak, but post #328 can be seen as slightly wolfy - Given that at the time, Nich looked to be going down, so this was a good time to get a wolf vote in.

Not much here to go on, but I still think it's very possible he is part of team wolf. I would really like to hear from others who know his style more.

Finally books -

Post # 485 is a vote for OH
to make the board read -

If books AND bob are wolf, then surely that vote should go to clown? Fairly sure that if books AND bob are wolf then books eithet votes for clown or doesn't vot yet at all.

If bob comes up wolf, I think the chance that books is wolf are tiny. If Bob comes up villa, there is a much greater chance that books is wolf.

I would also say that mentioning Chim as a wolf candidate in post #723, when there was no need, is pretty villagery.

In post #843, books makes a vote for Tarheeljks when it was 100% certain that he wouldn't get lynched. If tar or books comes up wolf, I would say that raises the chances the other will too.

Basically, slight village lean here, but this is the one I am struggling to make my mind up on as books was implicated by the seerhunt NK on N2.

Yeah, I noticed that too. Pretty ridic for him to think the BH outs himself here. Bob = desperate SK? I think more likely Bob=wolf.

I do agree with what bob says re. chuckles though.

Hitch,

your analysis of my play is very good.

amp

Peeks -
norseman1066 = villager
reno expat = villager
Swiitch = seer
The_Hitch = village

Wolf list -
chuckleslovakian > bobman0330 > amplify > aardvarksrus > tarheeljks > Bulletproof Monk > wdcbooks > MDoranD

That's where I'm at right now. Obviously things get moved around depeding on finding out who others are.

Come on, people. The following is not, repeat NOT, a sign of being a wolf:

When everyone in the game, more or less, thinks you are a wolf, make an off-the-wall strategy suggestion that you know is the opposite what most people think is correct. This is particularly true when you did the EXACT SAME THING TWO DAYS AGO AND EVERYONE WANTED TO LYNCH YOU FOR IT!!!!!!

Hitch, how did your analysis of books miss chim trying to cover up the fact that books looks like a fnord peek, and his repeated assertions that we should go after books after I turn up wolf? (it helps here to know that I won't turn up wolf). But the covering up angle is obvious. Then he attacked me for being wolfy when I drew attention to it. Chuckles may or may not be a wolf, but books is ZOMG% certainly a wolf.

As for the SK, how is using him as a wolf-killer working out so far? Answer: badly, because he's still trying to kill the BH. If he was going to help us, he would have done it yesterday or the day before. With the field rapidly shrinking and a good picture of who the wolves are, killing the BH is becoming more and more important for him. And since we aren't doing as horribly as we were before, he has less need to protect us from the wolves.

Bob, how is it you seem to know that Fnord was killed by the wolves? Your entire case for who is an isn't a wolf appears to rest on that point, but I don't recall that being disclosed in the write up.

A few things.

If you come up village, books is very likely a wolf.

But yes, you are right. I was half way through my re-read when my wife/kids came home and I rushed the last part with my daughter climbing all over me so I started just reading the posts made by the people I reviewed above, which is kinda poor, but I had to rush to get it done. fwiw, I spent about 3 1/2 hours doing it, and that's also why I stopped at the end of D3. So yes, I simply didn't read those posts. Iirc I was one of the more vocal people making the case you describe?

But someone should certainly re-read Chim in detail. As I say, i ran out of time, i may get time later, but cannot make any promises.

I would suggest tonights lynch be bob or chuck.
If we go chuck -
if he's wolf, go for bob tommorow.
if he's villa, go for books tomorrow.
If we go bob -
if he's villa, go for books tomorrow.
if he's wolf, go for chucks tomorrow.

I don't think I've got that twisted.

It doesn't matter if fnord was killed by the wolves or not. I don't think RT looked like a seer (b/c of not claiming on d1 when he was nearly lynched), so it makes sense that fnord was the wolf-kill. But what's important is that him dying was at least suggestive of you being a wolf, and that chim tried to downplay that angle. That means that you're a wolf.

This post made me OMG! I am so glad you made it books.

First, I think the general concensus was that fnord was the wolfkill.

Second, that write up is just my opinion, and people shouldn't take for granted that it was exhaustive, although I obviously tried to make it so, bob has allready picked one very large hole that is valid imo.

But what made me OMG was this epiphany -
The assumption that fnord's nk was a seerhunt was driven by [Drummroll].....[/drumroll] Chim and Amp!!

I suggest people re-read that section.

I don't really have time to reread this right now, but this is both exciting and confusing.