Ah ok, I see what you mean.

And yeah, I was surprised Boye made that post since it's not his style, shows how upset some people must be with Kit lol.

Kit has to solve all of the crimes.

Marcia marcia marcia.

I mean, who cares

If you want my opinion (and hey, WHO DOESN'T RIGHT?)

Boye obviously put his ass out there on the line in a way nobody has been willing to do. Like, if this went wrong somehow his career would have been over, and I think everyone gets that. So obviously, OBVIOUSLY, he gets a lot of the credit when things go right.

But Kit (and a lot of the other people who I'm going to forget to mention -- Ish, Cullin, etc etc) obviously need to put a lot of the work in too to actually break codes and such. It's not as though Boye was just sitting in his secret underground lair in Sweden busting people before narwhal wrestling for funsies, doing this by himself. And if he HAD been doing that, it would have been easy to dismiss as the ravings of a disgruntled loser.

Without both those groups working on it, none of this stuff happens the way it has, and deep down I'm sure they all know that. And that is about 5000 times more important than some self-aggrandizing language.

It's a nice hand, but one problem with this analysis is that East might well have played the Js at trick 1 if he has it.

Well, no, if I agreed to that then I didn't mean to.

Let's put it this way:

Public cheating accusations are bad.

Very public examinations of evidence, by as many people as possible, are very very good.

What Boye did was start with A and then sort of segue into B when he felt like it.

White v. Red. Total points. We're playing 2/1 GF.

Partner deals:

1s-p-2d-(3h)
p-p-3n

AJ964
2
J8
AJ982



72
KT3
AK97632
Q

8H-2H-JH-KH

Plan the play.

(Do you agree with 3N? Should partner bid differently?)

Can I duck instead?

Why would you duck?

Yeah rule of 11 says that you're losing the first 7 tricks if you duck

oh LOL 3H on my left

misread

carry on

So you're basically asking "do I go to dummy and run the DJ on the first round or do I cash diamonds from the top"

I'll cash from the top because why not, and if the DQ pops on my left the first round it's probably right to unblock the DJ and go up and hook and if he played the Q from QT good for him

'Why not' would be that LHO has 6 available spaces for diamonds and RHO has 11 available spaces for diamonds.

I'm playing righty for Qxx of diamonds btw. I'll play a black card up, run the J protecting against stiff 10, if covered I'll play another black card up and play the D8 to the 9.

Someone once told me: "play the preemptor to have a stiff."

...and while we're on bridge sayings: "I've gone down before"

Basically, you're playing RHO for Qxx (or QTx), as opposed to 2-2 or LHO with stiff Q. Even given the vacant spaces argument, I think it's closer than you think.

yeah but dropping the stiff T feels so good

"why say no when it feels so good to say yes"

Note that stiff T and stiff Q are equally probable, of course, so now we're basically weighing 2-2 diamonds against x - QTx. (We're also probably losing to Tx/Qx; if we go up to dummy for DJ-Q-A-x, we're probably going up again to hook into the ten, and thereby going down five)

If we cash the ace first and LHO drops the ten our plan will be to unblock the jack and hook (stiff T is more likely than QT doubleton given empty spaces etc).

Double finesse is better on x - QTx, loses to

Q Txx
Qx Tx
Tx Qx

According to this: http://www.rpbridge.net/cgi-bin/xcc1.pl it is not that close, starting with the ace first is about a 3:2 favorite.

Even if you give LHO 8 hearts since they're red/white then starting with the ace looks like it is percentage.

Also I forgot a case, unlikely though it may be, when LHO has Txx and RHO has stiff Q then the double finesse line is not very good. It is negligible but it is possible and only increases the play of starting with the ace.

That last case doesn't seem to matter because we have zero hand entries anyway, so it's not like we can cash ace, go up to the jack, and come back to hand to run the suit.

But, yay, me smrt anyway

haha indeed, I uhh knew I eliminated it for some reason

Yeah but we already see Aqxxxxx on our left. In terms of "vacant spaces" for points, much more likely RHO has the Q, no?

I doubt very much that LHO would make a different call with stiff Q vs stiff x when we are in a 2/1 auction

The $64,000 question is is FMK good enough to drop the Q from QT here...

According to suitplay they split 2-2 34.65% of the time (given the preempt). Stiff Queen on the left is 10.4%. If LHO drops the ten on the first round what are we doing? Stiff ten is 10.4%, QT is 5.78% so we'd unblock the Jack and take a second round finesse.

So cashing the ace of diamonds earns us 7 tricks 49.7% of the time -every time they split 2-2 other than QT with LHO + every time LHO has the stiff Q/T. Note that LHO doesn't need to drop the Q from QT since we're finessing after we see the ten, but it would score him extra cool points.

How about leading the Jack?

RHO has

QTxx - 13.9%
QTX - 20.8%
Qxx - 10.4%
QT - 5.8%
Qx - 11.6%

But what are we doing when he covers with the queen on the first round and plays low on the second round? Since QTx is twice as likely as Qx, we should finesse. Thus, we don't pick up Qx!

So if we *have* to take 7 tricks, leading the Jack works 50.9% and playing the ace works 49.7%.

On the actual hand LHO had

QT
AQ98765
T4
K4

and covered my club queen (is that a mistake?), I led the jack of diamonds (should cash club jack first), covered. I went back to dummy with a spade a finessed in to his ten. Down five.

FWIW, if I assume LHO has 7 hearts and 2+ clubs, the second round finesse in diamonds is a pretty big winner. Just over 70%.

If LHO drops the ten what is your plan?