Count me in the "would have bid 2H last time" camp.

Can't wait to hear what inferential information I'm not considering.

SHROOP? Chuckles is a wolf here.

Hearts are breaking so why would you want to play in diamonds if you can get 6 diamond tricks and 4 hearts

Because they might get a diamond ruff in hearts, for one thing. (responder might splinter with 3316, or he might not; opener may have 4414 or 4315 or something as well.)

Also because I expect to stop in 4H never.

Also because I think I want to take key card and cue bids away; sometimes we get 6C-1, after all.

If my partner passes 1C and later offers 4H, I'm going to assume his hand is good enough to compete to the 5 level but his suit wasn't good enough to overcall 1H

Obviously I'm competing in diamonds, not hearts, in part because, as DW says, we probably can't stop in hearts anyway. (The only way would be if we bid hearts, bad guys doubled [extremely unlikely], and partner let the double swing around to us.)

We have to decide how high to compete here. Partner saw a game-invitational or better fit auction by the bad guys, a passing partner even over a 1C opening, and favorable vulnerability; he bid 3D. Not four diamonds, three. To me, that says he might have just six diamonds, but let's pretend seven for now. It also tells me he has utter trash — if your partner is the type to sandbag this bid with two or three side cards, hoping they'll find 3NT when it's very wrong, adjust accordingly.

On this assumption, namely that partner has roughly KQJxxx(x) of diamonds and out, the bad guys will be making 6C most of the time (the only exception being when hearts are 5=3=2=3 around the table and RHO doesn't have a fourth-round spade winner); 7 will depend on whether they have a place to put the other heart loser (the answer being often yes; though notice it's unlikely a squeeze will operate because we probably hold the guards over both threats). If pard's diamonds are headed by the ace, or they're not but he has a side winner, they are still usually making six., but in that case not seven. Meanwhile, we are likely to make between six and eight tricks, with one degree of freedom for ace-or-not and one for the seventh diamond. That means 6D will be down between 800 and 1400, thus will be a good sacrifice against 6C. (When we go for 1400, they make 1390; it's IMPs so w/e.) My guess is that if we gun 6D right now they will never bid on, having not had a chance to check for aces; this will give them the last guess, and they'll get it quite wrong now and then, a little bit right occasionally.

However, if pard could have a couple of stray winners when coupled with our hearts, 6C is dead meat and even 5C may be in jeopardy. Over a right-now 5D, they probably don't bid on very often when these are the hands, and we buy it for –300 to –800 (I'm giving us one extra trick versus the weak scenario) against their 600 or so. That's last guess for us only to the extent we're worried about the 800; I like these odds too. On the other hand, when partner has nothing but diamonds I think they do bid on over 5D; we can then judge whether to sacrifice over the slam. Unfortunately if we trust their bidding we'll need to do so, and will ahve missed the opportunity to leave them fully in the dark. So the right level is going to depend on how likely partner is to have xxx xx KQT9xx xx and how likely to have QJx xxx AQJ9xx Jx

What I don't like is allowing them to ask for aces. 4H (4NT) 5D (P/X/5H/5S) is a sequence that just gave us the last guess, because they can now bid to the right level most of the time.

To me, this adds up to both 5D and 6D being potential winners, and 4H being a loser. I'm not worried about esoteric **** like 5H, lead directional against 6NT. A legitimate concern is that as mild a bid as 4D could keep them out of an otherwise good notrump contract; assuming pard's bidding is normal, opponents are going to be at least as aggressive (probably more so) at the other table, so I'm not winning the board by lowballing it unless partner's hand is pretty weird.

Bottom line: 6D right now if partner is very likely to be straightforwardly aggressive in this spot; 5D will be enough (I choose to hope) if partner is creative, or unknown. No number of hearts is necessary or appropriate.

Side note: Because I am not planning on bidding hearts, I am leading a suit preference low diamond. When and if hearts does get played, I am concealing the heart king (showing instead the queen-jack or queen-jack-ten), because showing declarer the king-queen-(jack) of hearts, with length once he works that out, will locate every other high card in partner's hand. That wouldn't help matters.

This is the remaining auction:

4H-(P)-P-(X)
P-(P)-P

Partner has

Kxx
xx
AKTxxx
xx

Lead is a club to the A, club return. RHO has Axxx, Axx, Qx, Axxx

lol 3D

That is a 2D overcall, you have a real hand. Opposite 2D I'm probably not even bidding.

Don't argue with success I guess. What ******s defended this contract. It is not hard to lead a high club and shift to spades

You are making your partner's life overly complicated. Just lead the Kh and partner will defend correctly.

one last tale from G-burg...

Sunday A/X swiss, round 3-board 6 of 7. Opponents seem to be very strong A players. You have a strong feeling you are down when opponents get to a real thin game that takes a very technical line to make. Almost 0% chance your partners are going to push that board.

1st seat R/W

You open 1H on

Axx
QJTxx
Jxx
Kx

A bit light, but well within our opening style at IMPs. LHO bids 2D and partner passes. At this point RHO goes into the tank for a bit. He finally comes out after about a 90 second think with 3NT. You confidently double. LHO and partner both pass and RHO goes back into the tank. Now the poker face comes on and I'm sitting there like I just pushed all-in on the river on a busted flush draw. RHO finally reaches into the box and out comes... 4D.

All pass.

RHO had

x
AKxx
Jxxx
AQxx

Making 6.

Unfortunately we still lost the round by 2 imps...

I'm with gabe in being puzzled by partner's bidding. If that's among the hands you expect for him, okee dokey.

The defense obviously should take the first four or five tricks depending on the heart spots, with one more to come. Against diamonds, they should take five including the uppercut —> trump promotion.

Sometimes, yeah, but particularly if they get to slam I would rather our diamond trick not go away on a spade. At matchpoints a diamond lead is therefore clear against six clubs; at IMPs, idk for sure but I think a diamond start is often going to be best.

If partner's style suggests that his holding the diamond ace is very unlikely on this bidding, or if the opps' later auction winds up telling me that, then I agree that a heart out is best. Starting with the queen will be costless if partner is the type to realize I may be creative here; if he's not, then I agree with you.

+2300's are always fun. I believe that is the highest score I have ever gotten.

Best club round I ever had, against someone who was a newer player at the time but now makes regular appearances in the Top 500 lists at the end of the year/etc (his partner for this round does not, though):

+2000
+1100
+880

24/24 mp

I wish I could remember more of the details.

you reach 4h vul with ops silent


92
KQT982
AQ64
7

A86
J3
J92
AQ942



E leads the J of spades.. plan the play

I assume east didn't overtake the spade jack? (Probably an error imo — should overtake and return a club.)

Scoring is IMPs?

Assuming the answers to those questions are yes, my approach isn't too sophisticated and probably isn't best, but:
I'm pretty sure I'm missing some extra chances, but that's probably how I'd play it.

Revised plan.

I would normally reverse declarer and dummy hand when providing a play problem (dummy in the north).

I fail to see the problem and grab As trick 1 and play Jh

5-0 split with both minor kings offside. But I still don't think you can make if you have this problem?

What I meant when I said that I see no problem is that I don't see how else I can play the hand from trick 1 and be better off - ducking the spade lead for example, I see no benefit.

Maybe weird layouts like 5-0 in trumps and 6-2 in spades and you need to duck trick 1.

It is all very unlikely

I ducked it to prevent ace of hearts on left —> cross in spades for a club through, breaking up a squeeze when LHO started with e.g., KJT Ax KTxx Kxxx and declined or was unable to act in the auction. (Also if you move the spade king to RHO, and for whatever reason have him not overtake trick one.)

Aha, I thought dummy WAS in the north, and the lead was from west. If the lead is coming from east, then yes, I take the spade ace at trick one because I fear that same shift.

scoring was imps

i found this to be an interesting play problem because even though 9 tricks are easy it doesn't seem obvious what sequence will maximize the chances of taking a 10th, especially with limited entries to dummy

ideally it seems like we want to plan for 3 diamond winners, only falling back on the club finesse as a last resort (and if defenders allow us to save it as a last resort)


like atak mentioned, an expert defender might overtake the j of spades and immediately play a club

assuming we win the first trick with the ace our options seem to be


1. play low to the j of diamonds after drawing trump

2. play low to the 9 of diamonds after drawing trump

3. play ace and low to the j of diamonds after drawing trump

4. play ace and low to the 9 of diamonds after drawing trump

5. run the j of dimes immediately

6. play low to the queen immediately

7. play ace of clubs and ruff a club


also if we choose to forgo drawing trumps immediately, we run some risk of having a dime ruffed by opponents



i don't know the answer, but technically i imagine there is a correct answer