i'm also going to disagree with what i perceive to be the moderate thread consensus and say that i don't find lissa particularly villagery

i've only seen her wolf once (we were tammates in a turbo) and she was noticeably more reticent to post and struggled to generate content

this feels like that

Let me tell you a little story. Not last year but the year before, the university imposed blind double marking on all dissertations. This was a change, as previously dissertation supervisors acted as first marker on their students' work.

I was acting as dissertations officer at that time. The department felt that the students needed to be informed of this change. Having read Kahneman, I opposed it, saying that it was best not to draw attention to it unnecessarily. However, apparently policies said that they HAD to be told.

I told them.

After the marks were released, we had a huge number of complaints from students about their final grades. Maybe 20 or more disputed their grade -- practically unprecedented within the British university system. They cited the fact that there was a disparity between how their papers were marked and what their supervisor had told them.

They INSISTED that the change in the marking system had caused them to receive a lower grade than they would have got under the old system.

We carried out a statistical analysis and found that actually, contrary to the perception, marks were up across the board by 3% on average compared with last year AND the students' grades were entirely consisted with their performance throughout the degree.

This is a classic example of the availability hueristic. The students drew the connection because the information of the change was in their minds. It is the classic "therefore" fallacy. You know one thing, and it leads you to say "therefore".

Bop has done with with Movin.

He knows one bit of information, one of the few bits available and he's gone "THEREFORE".

This is fallacious in my view since the majority of the village have not even spoken. Very incomplete information.

Bop should not be pushing that argument in my view when there are people on 0 posts.

Not exactly.
I love being a wolf so I try harder than most weak wolves which is 95% of POG.
But I try just as hard as villa but I have less info u less I'm seer etc so game is harder.

I post when I have time and I NEVER lurk. If I'm online I'm reading and posting crap at all times no matter alignment.

If it helps I gave myself tracker wolf before game started so I'm playing my wolf game, this is what really helps me blend in.
I underestimated this game cuz cop can see mafia and not wolfs and seer see human etc.
I think we win here with some luck like one wolf team killing another wolf cuz said wolf had a great game and cleared themselves.

So therefore I have an advantage by acting like a wolf. I will evade both wolf teams kills since "I'm wolfy" and they will think I'm part of the "other" team.

This is what makes me so elite.

Inb4 I draw NK by both teams.

i normally just call vigg a villager once he calls me a wolf, but considering that hasn't happened yet i can't be as confident; that said, i believe that he believed what he was saying re: the early NL/vigg tete a tete. what makes that read slightly less valuable is that wolves can appear genuinely engaged at hunting mafia, and vice versa, but within the mechanical constraints this roleset inherently has, it seems good enough for d1

Wow pocket attempt detected and accepted.
I like this guy

Thumbs up computer nerd kid.gif

I see Vigg's willingness to push at me a bit as being villa-y. From what I've seen so far, a wolf tell of Vigg's has been that's he's backed off a bit and read me as villa, and kind of avoided the sorts of scuffles that defined our early games together.

Monte - you are right to detect a bit of burn out in me, but that has nothing to do with my role.

So once everyone posts, my arguement with movin becomes valid?

It depends on what they post, obviously

Essentially, yes. That is: if once you've surveyed the complete range of posters, you still think he is most wolfy.

Monte is an spk I won't make as a wolf. I love Monte but I think he's not great ASAP like other players. I think it takes Monte a couple/few days to GOAT.
And I seen wolves pocket him easily lol.

If I was a wolf I spk myself or NL.
Or quick Ben just so he is like wtf??? Why? BATM I thought we were cool
Haha.

this little birdie in the back of my head is telling me that lissa/lord are w/w

i want to push it, but i'm going to be around not a ton over the next few days

my arguement with movin is only invalid if I fail to reevaluate as zero posters post IMO.

Monte, as if. Lissa is a wolf, I'm her bro and come out with "let's not lynch this one day 1 out of pity"?

i'd agree with all of that, absent the spking nl

i've never really seen him do anything i've found to be particularly impressive, although that could be an artifact of the time difference and whatnot

cogent

Lord I hate that long post. So unnesecary
I feel like u are compensating for something, just like that huge monster truck you own.
Makes no sense too

alright, kids are up

will try to make it back for eod, but beach and grill may call

That's the thing, he flies under the radar but I'm impressed by his game.
He's semi wolfy and fight and defends himself very well.
He has attention to detail and last 2 games we played we were on same page and he had a quiet very very good game.
Obv I over shadow him cuz my presence and greatness is like an eclipse but I notice.
We talked about this I think in a post game or something.
There's no a ton of the consensus strong players in this game.

I was trying to explain how Movin being on 3 posts as a result of ... simply being one of about 5 or 6 people posting was an example of the availability hueristic.

And the student example was a clear demonstration of perception vs. reality.

People have a habit of drawing causal relationships between two things they know SIMPLY because they know them.

This is a well-known phenomenon. I think it is entirely relevent to ww, especially in day 1 where I see it happen practically every single game.

Monte you live by the beach? Nice

yeah it doesn't make sense as a progression

and nl HAD interacted with him

v
vigg
monte
lissa
?
BATM
Gamer
Roman
QB
w
NL
lord
movin

this is where my head is at AORN

but 0 posters d1 are not like the quiet person in a corner, they are like the person who went to get a snack before the game actually started and hasn't come back yet

not sure whether this makes sense as an analogy but yours doesn't fit.

Nice how you clear ever single 0-poster bop.

And your three wolves are three of the most active posters. LOL.

ha ha ha ha ha



You're like an actual parady of the very phenomena I'm describing.