7:30 Draft Game: The West Wing - Page 31 - Puzzles and Other Games Forum

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08-31-2011 , 03:53 PM

#751

Yellow Ranger

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 63

Quote:

Originally Posted by shiitake

I think it's actually pretty hard to guess how people "should" react to these things. That's been my experience at least.

I think the "joke snipe" yesterday (and the explanation thereof) is more substantially wolfy than voting someone who peeked you wolf. That's pretty standard. And beyonce doesn't seem like the type of player to necessarily get the FPS nature of faking seer with wolf claims, from what I've seen

but it's really just a bad play today. It helps the wolves seer hunt. Think about it, what would you think if one of your wolf suspects claimed seer today? Would you not suspect them of claiming to draw out the seer? But that is also what you are doing, although I still think you're probably not a wolf.

Also clearly if we mislynch today it's bad to get to must lynch with unresolved competing seer claims, and even more problematic if some of those are villagers :P Obv if the peeks are right and we lynch a wolf today that's a good thing, but I don't think it was necessary to fake claim to get a wolf lynched anyway.

You unclaimed fast enough there's probably minimal impact anyway, I'm complaining about it as much to discourage any one else from trying it as I am because I think you caused real harm

Let's not get more fps-y then necessary.

I agree with this

we should be playing as straightforward as possible

fps is more likely to confuse villagers than wolves

Quote

08-31-2011 , 03:54 PM

#752

Shere Khan

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 265

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arya Stark

The first is a strange question. ?

He twice commented on you being definitive as wolfy when I would expect a villager to consider the posts he was commenting on possible seer peeks. So I find that wolfy.

Esp. the 2nd one, if your post was wolfy at all it's actually a pretty major TMI slip, and he's supposedly thinking it's wolfy but not making that big of a deal out of it. I need to reread the sequence but that could actually be the wolfiest thing about pps post.

Ya I risk alerting wolves that he's seer, w/e. Worth it bc I think hes probably a wolf.

Side note he also fake(?) peeks Mary the wolf which is a tactic wolves use for an excuse not to vote each other

Quote

08-31-2011 , 03:54 PM

#753

Beyonce Knowles

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 124

Quote:

Originally Posted by shiitake

a wild ranger appears!

When I questioned beyonce about that snipe I hadn't even seen that pre-emptive explanation. I'm not sure how I missed it

but wow

LOL another wolf. i feel like all the people attacking me at the moment are wolves. This guy asks me to clarify about the snipe i made and i referred to that early pre-emptive explanation in my response but now he's acting all suprised that i even posted that. So apparently he thinks it's important enough a topic to question me about but hasn't actually read my response. reeks of wolf to me.

Quote

08-31-2011 , 03:54 PM

#754

Mary Sue

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 308

yes i noticed- but him and i dont have much to talk about atm it seems

Quote

08-31-2011 , 03:54 PM

#755

Yellow Ranger

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 63

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mary Sue

me saying "ofc its not true cuz im vil" doesnt really make sense since ppl dont KNOW that.

people KNOW how you played.. which was terrible. did like 4 fakepeeks ors omething

g2g, back later

more ranger votes + no maj + behave = win

mislynching me is only a win if you're a wolf

Quote

08-31-2011 , 03:55 PM

#756

Beyonce Knowles

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 124

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yellow Ranger

you're deliberately night-posting for luls?

idgi

that is a complete mis-interpretation of what i said. go read my post again and come back. if you are wolf trying to just hammer me for this keep it up imo because you aren't making any sense at the moment.

Quote

08-31-2011 , 03:55 PM

#757

Yellow Ranger

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 63

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shere Khan

And also her response makes me think my other peeks are good.

I think so

Quote

08-31-2011 , 03:57 PM

#758

Yellow Ranger

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 63

Quote:

Originally Posted by shiitake

why would a villager say they were never changing off someone who fake peeked them wolf at must lynch +1 on a day when wolves really want to out the seer?

probably because what you did is objectively pro-wolf and anti-village :P

but more realistically it's probably just that she doesn't get the faking aspect. It's hard to say really, but my experience is villagers pretty much always react badly to people fake claiming with them as wolves.

I've seen the FPS claim really trap a wolf a few times, but I don't think this was it. To be fair, she didn't clear herself with her reaction either, it's more or less just whatever. I think you have a pretty bad case of confirmation bias going on. You were already convinced that beyonce is a wolf, and so everything she does just provides further evidence of it to you

you think beyonce is a wolf too, right?

Quote

08-31-2011 , 03:57 PM

#759

Shere Khan

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 265

Rangers posting fine

Quote

08-31-2011 , 03:58 PM

#760

Shere Khan

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 265

I said that before he agreed with my reads, yay

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08-31-2011 , 04:01 PM

#761

Yellow Ranger

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Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 63

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arya Stark

YR, are you caught up or just jumping in?

I haven't read yesterday yet

Quote

08-31-2011 , 04:02 PM

#762

shiitake

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 368

Ranger, I said your entrance, the whole "I disagree with everything that's been said" was kind of wolfy. I have a headache and a bunch of work to do and I can't be bothered to go quote it now, but the gist is just it felt pretty manufactured

Other than that, I wanted to pressure you so you'd show up

Quote

08-31-2011 , 04:02 PM

#763

Arya Stark

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 148

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shere Khan

But if he is a wolf he still makes the same post, so your question is almost just saying hey are you the seer?

Ps my phone may be dying soon

Quote

08-31-2011 , 04:02 PM

#764

Beyonce Knowles

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 124

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yellow Ranger

I think so

wtf are you agreeing with that, it's just straight BS khan is pulling out of his ass there.

explain to me without trying to just quote and agree with someone why in the hell that statement is likely to be true? there is no ****ing basis of any kind that i can think of where that statement is true.

Quote

08-31-2011 , 04:05 PM

#765

Yellow Ranger

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 63

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prince Philip

My case explaining reasoning why Arya Stark is a wolf.

To begin:

Let us focus upon early day 1, right after confirmed villager Anders makes his early vote on Mary Sue and elaborates on it early. Understandably the vote is garnishing an amount of heat, but far from an amount requiring a defense as hard as Arya throws out there:

This is a pretty hard defense for such little and early heat. Shall we ponder what roles would possibly defend Anders this hard?

1.Seer w/ Anders peek: Not likely, as the amount of heat Anders received is not proportional to the risk of put yourself out there so hard defending him.
2.Villager: Also unlikely, seeing as how you would have no clue regarding Anders' role. I wasn't about to go to bat that hard at someone so early, even if I found it a bit villagery.
3.Wolf: Much more likely as someone who knows Anders role looking for an easy method for trust from Anders as well as some village credit for trying to downtalk the lynch when Anders eventually does flip villager.

Still thin, but we shall continue on:

I look for two things in general when wolf hunting: A lack of internal consistency in a poster's arguments and actions as well as someone who asks questions and do not care what the answers are. Ayra falls into both of these categories.

Here, I will show that despite the hard defense on Anders early and often, once the wagon starts losing some steam we get:

There is no clarification of reasoning provided. It's a simple “Now something seems off” and then “I could switch”. This is day 1.

This one refers to Yellow Ranger

Yellow Ranger posted zero times yesterday. Zero. Yet Ayra goes from “yesterday you had not content” → “I like the case you made on YR” → “Why would you vote for Ranger here”?

Then an even harder “why would we ever vote YR” post today.

Here, I am going to post each and every post Ayra has made asking a question and not following up whatsoever – including a simple “Thank you for the answer, I understand what you mean now, we're good” response:

Note: This one also has the “forced exclamation mark” which, while also thin does factor in at least somewhat and should be mentioned here.

There are a lot of interactions and questions from Arya, yet it appears for a large majority of them she doesn't even care what the responses are. Why would this be?

As a villager, one would have to assume she asks the questions because she wants an answer to something that is off to her; be it a thought process, a vote, etc. Yet she doesn't.

Here are a couple of very interesting posts I've discovered as well:

This is referring to Beyonce's last second non-counting vote on Khan day 1. It's a pretty definitive statement regarding a players role the village should have no clue on.

Here was the defense when it was brought up:

Here's another interesting one:

While she's clearly discussing a poster, she makes a type calling him YG. Well, thats fine and dandy except it happens three times in the same post. Less likely of a typo now right?

What's interesting to me here is that, well, YG would be YoungGuns. Would younguns be a possible wolf? Sure. I think he's a great wolf. And what does that mean? It means that Arya knows who a player really is, which I assume the wolves would all know.

Could this be a slip? It's a 2 for 1 if so.

Today's response to the seer claim that was pretty obviously untrue:

And nothing since the unclaim. She tried to jump all over it and was so quick to believe it was true. Interesting.

Arya was also the main proponent of the Juliet lynch, which I admit got me hook, line, and sinker.

In conclusion: Arya's hard defense of Anders early and subsequent voting of Anders + saying she could jump off, along with her opinions of YellowRanger straying from “I like the case” to “How could anyone vote Yellow Ranger” both fall in line which inconsistent behavior fitting a wolf. The plethora of non-followed up upon questions asked by Arya also fits in with my belief that she wants to interact with people but has no care for what their answers actually are. There's a couple potential slips mixed in there as well.

It's my belief Arya is a WOLF.

this is a lot of work but arya is an obvious villager imo

and what you're calling "hard defense" looks more like disagreeing with the arguments made

I hate it when people do that

especially when people make bad arguments against my wolf suspects

because then I have to go "that doesn't make him a wolf, this does"

but people will still call it defending

Quote

08-31-2011 , 04:08 PM

#766

Beyonce Knowles

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 124

just another note i want people to think about: khans entire reason he has quoted so far why im a wolf for that post is: LOL obvious FPS. now seriously when you saw that claim was your response LOL FPS? because it wasn't to me, it was LOLWOLF. the guy claims a wolf peek of me which is just blatantly wrong at ML+1. what are the possible reasons for that? Because i don't see any villagery reasons for it.
plenty of wolf reasons for it though:
1. trying to get an easy mislynch
2. possibly get the seer to out themselves
3. hell maybe he even thinks that one of me and mary are seer and he's trying to cross us off the list, we were both in thread at the time iirc so he might think we are now not seer since we didn't insta counter claim.

Quote

08-31-2011 , 04:08 PM

#767

Yellow Ranger

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 63

Quote:

Originally Posted by shiitake

I wanted to argue with someone about something and I wanted to see what people might want to argue about

then I quickly realized that that statement wasn't going to work that way so I gave up on it

also, I'm not a good bull****ter and find it impossible to not say "j/k" right away

Quote

08-31-2011 , 04:10 PM

#768

Shere Khan

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 265

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arya Stark

But if he is a wolf he still makes the same post, so your question is almost just saying hey are you the seer?

Ps my phone may be dying soon

I guess you could say I risked the question to probe into whether he's a villager or wolf.

I think he's a wolf now fwiw

Quote

08-31-2011 , 04:11 PM

#769

Yellow Ranger

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 63

Quote:

Originally Posted by shiitake

Phillip, the only actually marginally wolfy thing you quoted from arya is asking yellow ranger how many wolves have posted. And that's only wolfy in a really weird levelly way, and maybe only if YR is a wolf. It just sticks out to me because it doesn't fit with anything else I guess

Otherwise I don't really think defending anders is wolfy there, and I think the principle behind preferring not to lynch YR is reasonable. It's been laid out elsewhere.

Also arya makes a good point about khan's quick retraction being somewhat villagery, or at least more villagery than a later retraction. I'm not sure it counts as villagery in a vacuum

I'm agreeing with a lot of your posts today

Quote

08-31-2011 , 04:13 PM

#770

Yellow Ranger

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 63

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arya Stark

i hate that the case was about me.

i suspected it would be.

and i hate it.

bc i wanted to push Philip a bit today, and now it seems grossly "NO U" - especially bc my push will now include his "case" as evidence against him

but in a nutshell (which i've already intimated in other parts of the thread):

Philip from d1 has demonstrated high critical thinking skills. (see: juliet becoming "enamored" with his posts). These skills have been put to use on a lot of game theory. But these skills have not once been put to use to solve the game

enter: his case on me.

is it overly defensive and whiney if i describe that case as shoddy and half-assed?

it just doens't fit with the "high reasoning" person that philip appeared to be so far.

I agree with this

philip seemed pretty sharp to me on day 1 but this case seems artificial to me

Quote

08-31-2011 , 04:15 PM

#771

Yellow Ranger

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 63

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mary Sue

yes i noticed- but him and i dont have much to talk about atm it seems

why not?

Quote

08-31-2011 , 04:17 PM

#772

Yellow Ranger

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 63

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beyonce Knowles

he obviously thought you were a wolf before he made that claim

your reaction is not the case against you

Quote

08-31-2011 , 04:18 PM

#773

Beyonce Knowles

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 124

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yellow Ranger

he obviously thought you were a wolf before he made that claim

your reaction is not the case against you

ORLY?

Quote

08-31-2011 , 04:23 PM

#774

shiitake

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 368

prince phillip

Quote

08-31-2011 , 04:24 PM

#775

Mary Sue

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 308

Quote:

Originally Posted by shiitake

prince phillip

can't let you do that, son

Quote

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