7/23 Vanilla 13'er - TO ATF! Game Thread - Page 51

Day one we had 2/2/2/2 wagons on 3 villa/1 unknown (uaw) with 48 mins to go

We ended up getting to 3/2/2/2 with dice/divided/tyler/jay in the final few minutes

With divided/dice being villa there isn't much to gain from D1 at this point, unfortunately

However, I can say this:

If Tyler flips wolf, then leafs/uaw are clear
If jay flips wolf, then luck is clear

Remember those for later in case the data points on either of those 2 is available

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:08 PM

#1252

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhuber2010

i guess, if kokiri is a villager, it would basically seal leaf's fate tonight as we would probably turbo leafs tomorrow if kokiri flips villager at lynch so it makes it slightly less likely that he would be pushing a kokiri mis-lynch so hard if kok is a v and leafs is a w.

not a fan of this logic. He'll take the mislynch and on to mustlynch any day of the week as a wolf.

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:09 PM

#1253

Jim Harbaugh

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 645

Votes from post 1058 to post 1252
Night in 03:51:58
---

Votes	Lynch	Voters
3	tmleafs1967	Nicholasp27 (6), tylertwo (24), kokiri (11)
2	Nicholasp27	Kukraprout (34), ihcjay (32)
2	kokiri	luckduck53 (18), tmleafs1967 (54)
2	not voting	UAW710 (0), bhuber2010 (10)

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:09 PM

#1254

luckduck53

The Situation

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 5,147

Leafs less likely to be a wolf now.

Nich might be.

Kokiri is still the lynch imo.

Tyler is probably villa.

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:11 PM

#1255

tylertwo

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Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 8,254

In the interest of fairness I ran through my noted posts on kokiri and did come up with something odd.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

I'm reading over tea - I'll be in properly later, but for now I thought shipitup was villagery in a don't tell the seer what to do ffs sort of way, so I'll be unvoting. I also thought leaf felt genuine, but I'll try to be more concrete when I'm not on a phone.

His tea post, not odd, lol. They don't always drink tea, it's more of a mealtime for many.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

Historically, mail it in nich is a lock wolf, so if he is very terse itt then we should lynch him.

However, i would tend to be a bit more forgiving with the posting elsewhere thing until it becomes a pattern of thread avoidance. speaking for myself, I can post in the lc threads in my sleep, but focusing on a game thread takes more focus.

This is an interesting read on nich and playing elsewhere...

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

through page 3, i think luckduck has failed in his attempt to be a not transparent villager early.

Funny post, highlighted for who knows what reason.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

oh, i also liked Kruk's opening and i have faith in his system.

DividedSky is weird. (s)he seems to be in the thread, interacting, but is overly understanding of everyone's point of view, and seems to be avoiding any confrontation.

Now this is a strange post (#307). Kruk hasn't posted his system yet. How does he know that he should have faith in it?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kukraprout

get ready because i am about to DROP SOME PERCENTAGES!

WOLF PROBABILITIES

thediceman 33%
tylertwo 31%
Nicholasp27 31%
Sun Tzu 29%
UAW710 29%
ShipItUp 28%
DividedSky 28%
luckduck53 27%
ihcjay 23%
bhuber2010 21%
tmleafs1967 20%
kokiri 0%

as i said before i obtained them with a little program that i made that takes as input how much i think a post or an interaction looks v, w, v/v, v/w, w/v, w/w

before everyone starts telling that my numbers are made up / suck / are useless: this is just a way to organize my reads, i dont pretend that i have a 1% accuracy on anything, just read this as me ranking people from most wolfy from most villagery

they do not match totally my gut feeling reads (for instance i would have tyler lower), but when i first tried this approach my percentages were better than my gut feeling reads, so i'll put some faith in them anyway

of course raw percentages are not very usefull so i'll explain where do each result come from

This is Kruk's system posted at #317.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

I'm less villagey on SIU's work on a reread,

tylertwo's entry to the thread brought a tear to my eye and snap made me want to lynch him. The feeling hasn't gone away. LHCJay (do you work at the LHC?) seems to be making logically consistent points.

DividedSky on a run-it-up-the-pole-and-see-if-it-waves basis.

I quoted this earlier, interesting.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

kruk's maths confirmed pure logic.

If kokiri is a wolf, we may want to look at why he likes this system so much.

I think that we lynch NichP tomorrow based on non-activity, but not today. Who else is not contributing?

Quoted for my notes.

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:12 PM

#1256

Kukraprout

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Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 11,231

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

I think Nich can definitely be a wolf here, but Leaf is the percentage play. And UAW is the classic wagon that never quite gets going. Leaf/UAW/one more.

you are going to need to try way harder to convince me that leafs is a better lynch than you

how involved in games are you usually, as a villa and as a wolf?

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:14 PM

#1257

bhuber2010

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Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 16,332

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

not a fan of this logic. He'll take the mislynch and on to mustlynch any day of the week as a wolf.

What? I dont disagree at all.

Its unfortunate SIU didnt get any more peaks off because this game would virtually be over.

If leafs is saccing himself to lynch you just to get 1 more mislynch that would straight up be ******ed considering he wouldnt have to push that hard to get you/nich lynched after last nights wagononmics. He could just basically hide and subtly push you/nich which is why I think it looks good for tmleafs + his tone was good this morning (I has to go back and read his posts in isolation too).

You sad that I am working to clear him right now?

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:14 PM

#1258

bhuber2010

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Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 16,332

Quote:

Originally Posted by luckduck53

Leafs less likely to be a wolf now.

Nich might be.

Kokiri is still the lynch imo.

Tyler is probably villa.

+1, me likey

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:16 PM

#1259

ihcjay

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Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 44,298

Tyler appears to be mqing for the sake of....what exactly?

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:16 PM

#1260

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kukraprout

you are going to need to try way harder to convince me that leafs is a better lynch than you

how involved in games are you usually, as a villa and as a wolf?

i've played like 3 games in the last 3 years, so iunno?

Traditionally (when active enough to keep my eye in) I've been good at clearing myself and staying alive to late game as either role, bad at seer hunting as a wolf, and bad at drawing NKs as a villager. But in the anniversary game this year i was lynched as a villager on day 1.

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:17 PM

#1261

bhuber2010

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Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 16,332

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhuber2010

he could push me for mis-lynch too for putting the 4th vote but I think he knows better than to do that as a wolf

(or as a villager

)

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:17 PM

#1262

tylertwo

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bhuber2010

The last few quotes I think are more in response to my quotes/all of my posts yesterday versus actually calling me wolfy so I wont really address those

Your not wolfy. You made me mad, because you are a villager.

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:18 PM

#1263

Kukraprout

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Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 11,231

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nicholasp27

if i can find an example of wolves bussing day 1, does your argument still hold?

i agree that voting a wolf is villa points, i'm even willing to accept that it is more villa points when the seer is alive.
but saying that the wolves act in a totally predictable manner when the seer is alive, and in a totally unpredictable manner when he is dead is just wrong.

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:18 PM

#1264

bhuber2010

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ihcjay

Tyler appears to be mqing for the sake of....what exactly?

I kind of lol'd at this. I realized this as I got halfway done responding to his quotes and I realized he wasn't even calling me wolfy. He was just addressing like everything I posted, which is really, really odd.

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:20 PM

#1265

bhuber2010

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Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 16,332

Quote:

Originally Posted by tmleafs1967

ok so tyler, cute MQ on bhuber there, now what did u miss? It's like the most important part that makes your mq look weird

this does look kind of odd; seems kind of TMIish

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:22 PM

#1266

bhuber2010

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Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 16,332

Quote:

Originally Posted by tylertwo

Your not wolfy. You made me mad, because you are a villager.

Fair enough. I cant be mad at you when you're clearing me. I just had to start responding to your MQ cause I thought you were calling me wolfy at first and I was about to start steaming

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:24 PM

#1267

ihcjay

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 44,298

You two should kiss and make up in wolfchat rather than itt

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:24 PM

#1268

tylertwo

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Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 8,254

Quote:

Originally Posted by ihcjay

Tyler appears to be mqing for the sake of....what exactly?

I'm trying to get aboard this kokiri bus if I can, by being fair to leafs. I'm not talking about the bhuber MQ. I was attacked and I defended, I don't think he is a wolf.

For those that don't know it I am 62 years old. I was up last night, concerned that bhuber's attack on me was personal. I decided to let it out so that I could go on playing WW. If you don't like that well...

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:24 PM

#1269

bhuber2010

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Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 16,332

Quote:

Originally Posted by ihcjay

Leafs the last time I saw you come in this hard at someone this early in the day you were w/w with them.

This exactly. Now I just have to decide if you're trying to make leafs look bad with this or you're being genuine when you say this.

Either way, thats a half decent mind-meld.

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:25 PM

#1270

bhuber2010

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Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 16,332

Quote:

Originally Posted by ihcjay

You two should kiss and make up in wolfchat rather than itt

Could you please confer with your friends and tell me if you're going to bus kokiri or would I be better off elsewhere and not turbo lynching a villager?

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:27 PM

#1271

UAW710

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 5,391

'sup

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:27 PM

#1272

ihcjay

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 44,298

Quote:

Originally Posted by tylertwo

You both talking about bussing kokiri so I'm guessing he's villa

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhuber2010

Could you please confer with your friends and tell me if you're going to bus kokiri or would I be better off elsewhere and not turbo lynching a villager?

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:28 PM

#1273

bhuber2010

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 16,332

Quote:

Originally Posted by tmleafs1967

1 game is a really small sample size bro, I'm a villa, we had an excellent outcome from a ****ty eod, get on board

kokiri/nich and the last is one of bhuber/kukra

Book this post for when I'm dead and live by it ok.

I kinda like this, except I would replace myself with UAW. I think kukra has been pretty villagery on tone though. Once the first wolf flips, that should help resolve things/give us someone to read for spew and help POE who his/her teammates are if we can start clearing some villagers.

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:29 PM

#1274

Kukraprout

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Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 11,231

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

according to the database kokiri was a villager who got lynched in these 3 games

only one was a vanilla, here is the link if someone else wants to take a look:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/59...hread-1229518/
i'd say that his posts had slightly more content than here in that game, though i must admit that it is not that much

Quote

07-25-2013 , 04:30 PM

#1275

UAW710

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 5,391

kokiri needs to be lynched

Not only is he not villagery at all(I dare you to find one villagery post by him)

He is also completely utr

Anyone who has less posts than me automatically gains wolf points because I am pretty much the definition of utr

kokiri

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