why?

ya i mean you mentioned it 'for the lolz' so wasnt sure how serious you were

yeah, it was mostly for the exact pair in killer/xander

Why killer, xander, and NGL? What are your villa reads for them?

What about me has lead you to believe I'm wolfing?

Why are you leaning sun?

You, is mostly because I feel like you have it in your wolf range to get this far without really making a big splash. You haven't don't anything specifically wolfy, but nothing super super villagery either.

My favorite villa-ish moments from you have been some of your interactions with me, like when you asked me to read EoD2 on UFO/NGL(I think) and asked my thoughts. Like that seemed like you're generally trying to think about the game.

I also like the w:w pairings you've been suggesting in the thread. And that you will sometimes go back and look for w:w interactions and post them. I also like that you're trying to call me out on having a quick turn around on xander.

all of this seems like you're trying to solve the game.

The tinfoil in me makes me think that maybe you're trying to see whatever pair I think is most believable so you can push it, but I'm pinning that for now.

killer/xander has been because of the clearing of one another. Mostly bc xander has some wolfy moments here and there, and yet killer is sure he is a villa. Maybe that could be long term meta, but it pings me a bit.

Sun comes in and quotes posts in a somewhat linear progression from the times he wasnt itt. This to me shows me he is putting in effort to catch up on the game, so he can consider it. A wolf might only catch up enough so they can try to enter the thread naturally. And only go back and quote stuff when they need to. But that hasn't been my read of them so far.

I keep going back and forth on NGL, mostly because I think there are some differences between last game and this game. He could have improved and is trying different lines and angles. But mostly it feels different. Plus there was a post where he said he wanted to talk about the Seer's play in postgame that came across as villagery to me.

For the record, this is the type of non-effort post hat I expect from wolf ChrisV rather than villa ChrisV.

In the last game when ChrisV showed up in the morning he would say something about rereading people, or rereading the game overnight. Or he would assert that this person had this type of post which was villagery or wolfy. Or he would say he thought when this person did that it was wolfy or it was villagery. etc etc.

But the above post doesn't do any of that, it's just opinions with no basis or thought to how he really arrived there. On both his wolf reads and his villa reads. This is not the strong, assertive, villa ChrisV that I've come to know in games. I think it feels and reads different.

Plus now both xander and ChrisV are clearing each other, soooo.......

I dunno, I feel like Sun has been more actively wolfy and with you it's more like... I feel like you fit into a slot in the game where a wolf could be. You've been a bit detached, I guess.

I'd like you to quote these posts, bc I think you're full of shyt and are grasping at straws.

xander's tone is just exceptionally pure. killer's posts I've thought have been villagery in both tone and content. He seems to be genuinely thinking about the game. NGL is miles different to his wolf game and is showing a good progression on stuff.

And you think that I haven't shown a propensity for thinking about and/or solving the game?

See this last line is so goddamn wolfy. I don't actually believe you think this kind of CONNECTING THE DOTS, ZODIAC SERIAL KILLER, LINES ON WHITEBOARDS style of wolfhunting is a good idea. Nor do I believe that you think the last two wolves CLEARING EACH OTHER is actually going to happen in a game where there are two wolves left and village has no consensus on who they are and we're two lynches away from death. If you do believe any of this nonsense, please wise up prior to the next game. But I think you're just posting this stuff because you think it sounds villagery.

I admit that I'm def not that skilled in hunting wolves.

But why is looking at how players are interacting with one another not a good strategy?

And I do think that wolves would be more likely to clear one another rather than throw them under the bus. And the fact that you want to say it's not something wolves would do is why wolves would do it.

Also ChrisV, are you saying that given the current game state that wolves would be thunder doming each other? Going after each other and all that?

Is that what wolves would do? They wouldn't try to keep one another from getting lynched? They wouldn't be trying to push it towards lynching a villager?

Sun

feels

Donny, you're lookin at people clearin each other and claiming they are wolves, now powerwolfing is a thing sure but it doesn't happen every game and with every player

think its.... not exactly the best way to look at interactions

look at how/why they're clearing the player over the fact that they are clearing that player

Votes from post 1435 to post 1488
Night in 9:59:52
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Votes	Lynch	Voters
1	NotGonnaLie	No Lynches (18)
1	ChrisV	Donat3llo (21)
5	not voting	ChrisV (5), killer_kill (0), NotGonnaLie (0), Sun Tzu (0), xander biscuits (8)

here's the thing

wolf interactions are gonna be more nuanced than CLEAR WOLF BRO KILL VILLAGERS

like this post though

But that's just it, it woudln't be a big deal for either to clear one another if they had good reasons. But xander doesn't have shyt as to why Chris is a villager and Chris doesn't have a good reason as to why xander is a villager, other than "just toan man". Rather than evaluating the content of their posts, which is BS.

They're doing what you're saying I'm doing.

well... fair.

yeah, fair. you have a point. gah.

The problem when making reads like "x and y are wolves together" is that the chances are excellent that you're wrong. Right now, assuming you know you're a villager, the natural chance that me and xander are wolves together is 1/15. Imagine you have a super sick read and double this chance, then it's 2/15 and we're still overwhelmingly likely not to be the wolves. The point here is that conditional reads like this should be treated as very dubious, but people often promote them to first-class reads alongside stuff like "Donny sounds like a wolf". Because of the inherent unlikelihood of a Chris-Xander wolf team, the existence of a Chris-Xander team conspiracy theory has very little relevance to the individual probability of us being wolves.

I admit that I don't know the best way to hunt wolves. I try to do what I see others do, which is trying to evaluate posts and interactions. I'm probably cargo culting a lot when i rand villa because I'm not entirely sure how to parse the interactions and behaviors as well as others. So I do what I think others are doing, and try to arrive at some reasonable conclusion.

This probably is why I get read as wolf sometimes, because it seems like I'm going through the motions, but my analysis is lacking. When in reality I'm trying to do analysis based on what I think to be the best way to hunt wolves. And it's entirely possible I'm not that good at it.

This is also why I tend to do better as a wolf, bc I have more information and can cherry pick posts to make a case. Then I don't actually have to parse or interpret posts bc I already know the answer, I'm just framing them to look a certain way. This is why jm3 and I butt heads because I feel like this is what he does to a lot of my posts.

I dunno, while I do think that my play this game has been my villa game and very different than any wolf game I've played, I can understand how you guys may not be able to tell the difference as well and don't have anything specifically villagery to point to. Which leaves me in the POE

The problem with doing it should become apparent when I scale it up. Supposing we start a mash and I say "One reason I think Donny might be a wolf is that I have a theory that there's a Donny, BATM, No Lynches, Ace of Spaids, Lissa, well named, Monkey Banana wolf team, due to their interactions". You'd object: hang on though, that wolf team is just so astronomically unlikely, this tinfoil theory just isn't likely enough to have any bearing on whether I'm a wolf. The same principle is at work as soon as you start making x+y wolf team theories.

Good news though, I'm tossing you back in the villager pile, this interaction with me has been good, you've shown genuine curiosity in what I think. Also, I don't think you'd bother to interact with me in this way as a wolf. You'd just be yelling "Burn the witch!".

You're absolutely right that the chances of you both being a wolf is somewhat slim. So yeah the cross clearing isn't a big read flag, it just kind of stuck out to me.

It's more likely that one of you could be wolves and the other is just wrong. In this case I'm inclined to think that you're still a wolf and xander is wrong here.

I kind of feel like you won't be able to lynch me, my posting this morning has been manifestly villagery. Would you be open to lynching NL or Sun Tzu?

I gotta be wary here because if you're the wolf you'll just say yes and pick the mislynch