I seem to be one of the few people that thinks killer is actually trying to engage with the game and bring logic to bear, but that might just be because I'm not really understanding his posts.

Didn't really have any time as I was trying to bus you into oblivion.

For you, me and Chris I think a lot of people are trying to judge differences between last game and this, but its kind of silly. When two wolves bus so hard day 1 it creates a different atmosphere.

I'd assume any player especially good ones have a few different ways they play wolf or villager. They might have specific alignment tells, but expecting the whole persona to transfer from game to game doesn't really make sense to me.

Right, they show he half remembered something...but why does he ask in thread instead of looking it up himself and then leaving the analysis that is important?

Instead he leaves the question posts. Couldn't that make it seem like he is thinking about the game without really doing so?

Can you post some of the follow ups that lead you to believe he was doing real analysis? I could be wrong here, so I'm curious about the follow up poasts.

I think these are the best examples, this one was shortly after and I 'think' one of the better things to come out of yesterday.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=1349

"Its important to remember that myro didnt vote ufo and didnt leave a robik n0 peek. So I feel like the people who stuck on ufo early look really good. Reason i say that is if wolves thought he was peeked they can decide whether to bus or try and squeeze a ml in and stranglehold the game."

And then earlier a post like this:

I can't tell if this is legitimate leg work, disjointed thinking, or deliberate manipulation but the takeaway I had was that he was thinking about things at a deeper level.

He's a pain in the ass to iso. Is there any way to get a poster iso that is just in thread and fully expanded?

Ok, nice post.

I agree that those posts are better than the previous ones. And the demonstrate at least thinking about the game.

I think I would need him to follow up bc I don't think I quite understand the points.

I also kinda like this exchange that we're having NGL so I'm kinda inclined to keep you in my villa pile for the time being.

Oh ok, after rereading that killer post he does make a good point.

If wolves think UFO was peeked then they know he is going down and will bus. If not then they need to try for an ML.

So people who vote UFO early on, look better and less like bussing wolves bc it wasn't clear UFO was peeked.

Makes sense

And with regard to the end of day voting it's cool that in this format you get to see kind of in real time who is willing to put a votes up to certain thresholds. But since its asynchronous you don't know exactly what info they had when they made the decision.

If you voted while you thought I was still voting I think it makes you look more villagery. If you waited (intentionally or otherwise) for someone to unvote less so.

With regard to the night kill (lolwifom). One relevant thing I think the wolves might have tried to influence with the night kill is the conversation dynamics.

The aussies have their weird schedule and sun tzu, xander, and killer just pop in for a minute or two if they feel like it.

JM3, donatello, and I keep similar hours and have bounced against each other a lot. Riling each other up about things that probably don't matter.

No concrete argument to make either way, just another lens to think about the night kill that I thought about.

Would love to claim the villagery action but I didn't notice.

The most likely reason I think Jm3 was killed though is the way he attacked UFO on day 1. I have trouble imagining a wolf (my impression of JM3 especially) doing that.

Votes from post 1435 to post 1536
Night in 6:59:58
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Votes	Lynch	Voters
1	Sun Tzu	No Lynches (22)
1	ChrisV	Donat3llo (38)
1	Donat3llo	xander biscuits (10)
4	not voting	ChrisV (13), killer_kill (0), NotGonnaLie (15), Sun Tzu (0)

So bc he was clear and would be hard to lynch.

Thats my thinking, I just looked through the other reads lists. Not everyone had him lock town, but he wasn't anyones top lynch either.

But that is why I was against everyone posting crystal clear lists. If we all listed our reads and stuck with them, its easy for the wolves to identify the easiest/hardest mislynches to push.

But in the end you can construct any narrative you want around a night kill depending on how deeply down the rabbit hole you want to go.

I'm not sure about what you're asking but there is a 2+2 search extension that is super helpful. I didn't know what I was missing until I installed it. I think it's in the WW strategy thread in the stickies.

It's posts like these that really set apart this game from last game. It truly does feel like night and day. If you've improved your wolf game this much then I feel ok to be wrong about you.

think you're solidly in my villa pile. Which I think at the moment is only really myself, you, and Sun. I'll have to reread sun(should be quick) but nothing has really pinged me at all, but maybe he is just trying to stay below radar.

As you mentioned before, the people active itt are bumping heads, rather than exploring those that pop in and out of it.

Votes from post 1435 to post 1541
Night in 5:59:58
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Votes	Lynch	Voters
1	Sun Tzu	No Lynches (22)
1	ChrisV	Donat3llo (41)
1	Donat3llo	xander biscuits (10)
4	not voting	ChrisV (13), killer_kill (0), NotGonnaLie (16), Sun Tzu (0)

Honestly I can't see ufo just deciding he's going to bus his bro and vote him. To think that you'd have to assume xander told him to do that.

Why does a killer/sun team work? I was pushing Sun on d2 so why would I just outright bus him for no reason?

Yeah I don't get it.

I mean you realize if xander and I were wolves I could clear him and he can push me etc?


I'm not seeing the NL read or is this more of just a POE kind of thing? We can't just have a lazy lynch today.

I quoted posts from time to time when I'm not around it's just not very fruitful on d1 or even d2 when you have a single nk and lynch. I think it's mildly wreckless to clear sun for simply pulling quotes is my point. Like the easiest thing for a wolf to do is to pull old stuff. They don't have to come up w/new content when mq. Like if I'm talking to you about something new then I have to create a new lie, but it's much easier to take something someone else said and talk about that.

It's a good strategy. I'm not sure what he's talking about tbh. You have a wolf reveal you want to understand who they pushed and all that.

You want to lynch the seer way over you wolf bro jeebus. You get to nk whoever you want vs killing the seer then the next days lynch has to be the wolf. It's like a triple win.

Honestly there really wasn't much movement through the day. I ended up reading page 8-9 and talking to sun. The main problem is that people were on ufo and changed to myro so it's not indicative since wolves could've either moved or stayed on ufo knowing myro wagon snowballed.

I don't think you're a wolf per se but it's more that people have to have a POE from their own reads.

Press CTRL+F on chrome.



The nightkill is shown at the same time every morning. In a 13'er with short nights the wolves can reveal the nk whenever they want it to show.

chris

My problem with lynching chris today, is it seems like exactly the laziest option.

If I'm in your POE I want to move up or down it today. That'd be pretty unlazy.

Fwiw, I don't think ChrisV is the lazy lynch. I think it makes the most sense given the info we have.

You've definitely moved down on my POE list, meaning I don't really want to lynch you at the moment.

Though maybe I'm misunderstanding what you mean by "laziest option", meaning you think it's the lynch that requires the least amount of thought and will give us the least amount of info?

Lynching Chris seems like the path of least resistance to me, it might be right (the fact theres so little resistance probably even makes it more likely correct).

But if you're specifically looking for a non-lazy lynch?

@NGL, chris doesn't seem to think he'll be a lazy lynch.

Thoughts on this post, does this seem like a very villagery post from him?

Votes from post 1435 to post 1548
Night in 4:59:58
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Votes	Lynch	Voters
2	ChrisV	Donat3llo (43), killer_kill (2)
1	Sun Tzu	No Lynches (22)
1	Donat3llo	xander biscuits (10)
3	not voting	ChrisV (13), NotGonnaLie (18), Sun Tzu (0)

Beating your chest and saying stuff like "I'm so villagery you'll never lynch me" is something people can do as either alignment, it's just blowing smoke. Whether its alignment indicative is up to personal meta imo and always just a lean since its dead simple to fake.

You have more experience with Chris, is he the type of person that spits fire when hes about to get mislynched? Does he rollover? Does it even matter how hard he'll defend himself if the numbers are there for a lynch?