I don't think that anybody with a good wolf game can ever be cleared day 1.

Totally disagree unless it's a seer claim or a mechanics post, or someone has a wildly, hilariously out of balance "range." But also not the point of the post really.

Swiitch - I'm sorry.

Wolves - You're welcome.

Thingy - You rock.

I used to think that. Mets is the person I have the most trouble clearing, I cleared him on page 1 once. It's possible to do things a wolf could never do -- even on day 1. When you do that, you are not a wolf.

Getting it right once and getting it right consistently are entirely different things, which you know.

You CAN get it right on page 1 - I CAN suck out 5 times in a row, too. Why you would ever TRY to play that way is completely beyond me.

Villages need to listen to me more.

Other than being wrong on Cielo, I was pretty much right about everyone (CDL doesn't count, he was ****ing things up and needed to go anyway)

I ain't even mad.

I was ready to pwn this game, so the wolves should be happy you got me

I am pretty consistent, I know that.

I don't TRY to play that way. If somebody clears themselves on page one, I don't reject it because they have a good wolf game and it's page one. The evidence is still real. I will often refuse to clear somebody like mets for the whole game despite a lot of things pointing in their favor. I just follow the evidence.

I think the mistake people make with clearing is not applying the appropriate standard to the person -- too hard on newbs, too easy on vets. But thinking anybody can't be cleared day 1 is just wrong.

I mean, you were your obvious villa self which meant that the wolves were going to have to deal with you sooner or later. I had a feeling you were probably on the right track and would have wrecked the game in fairly short order if you had been allowed to live, but I had no idea who my teammates were or how they would prioritize killing you over PR hunting so I figured my best shot was to kill the most helpful and obvious villager itt and let my teammates essentially freeroll their kill because they wouldn't have to worry about resolving you. That you ended up being a half vig and that my teammates ended up being able to steal your powers after death was just insane variance.

Everyone played well, especially kioshk. Intercepting an early kill, protecting only villagers, and managing not to get killed yourself as a major PR in your first mishmash is

Meh, it seems that I would have to angleshoot to lock clear myself that early.

My page 1 wolf range is pretty extensive.

I actually was really excited to have you to talk to n1 since I didn't expect to have any attractive options.

But then we lynched Hoya and I had to make a tough choice.

It was actually a consistently tough decision as to which dead villager I wanted to speak with. All of the good ones died young.

Thanks, HiFi!

Soft-cleared, whatever. Cleared? Almost never.

Your way is the conventional wisdom and how I started. Then from my experience I thought some more about it, and what actually clears people. Then I started accepting that the obvious villagers were villagers -- even if they have great wolf games, even if it is day 1 -- and it works much better.

So every time you say certain people can't be cleared day 1, I'll say the opposite. At some point we can agree to disagree.

I will agree that almost nobody is a very likely wolf day 1 in my experience. Your Traz may vary.

I'm just against the principle of giving certain players a pass early on b/c they are supposedly "too good to be lynched d1," which seems to be the argument you and dean are making.

idk why you are attacking my "read" on you. I disagree w/ the assumption you and dean have that you can't be read on d1, but in this case that doesn't even apply. When I voted you, the choice was Dean or you. I had a villa read on Dean, and the way you were playing wasn't pro-villa -- easy decision.

I enjoy playing with you too. I'm not trying to start a huge argument. I just disagree with the idea that any one player is "too valuable" to lynch d1.

It's not about value. It's about likelihood of being right being no better than rand.

The other thing is that your post assumes that Dean and I somehow earned that situation, which is simply untrue.

Who you voted between the two of us I don't really care about - once that happened it was mostly hopeless anyway. But it's early d1 attempts to "read" us that resulted in that really bad situation.

I'm not the one who put the two of you on the chopping block. Should you really have been there this game? Probably not. Are you so unreadable that you should NEVER be there? You guys seem to be saying yes, but I say no -- and I'm not going to fault alice for trying to read you.

subscribe.

I dunno man, I think you were a lot more sure I was a wolf than I was sure you were a wolf. So why did you give that read? Was it more likely than rand to be correct?

That is an interesting power that I've never seen before. The thing is, going into the last day everyone had a decent idea who the wolves were (pwnsall was the one eluding me...gg pwns); we just couldn't figure out how to kill them. Valentine's Day was a bad choice if you're just going to let people pair up on their own again and *then* decide the best lynch, not to mention claiming after being matched.

Easy to say Chips should have gone for broke with filthy after his "let me figure out how what to do here" hesitancy, but I don't know if I could have made that leap either.

oh THAT game. hahaha! i am not sure but i think i really was trying to be supportive. i knew you were suffering cause i knew you were a villager and being framed. so that sucked and i genuinely did want to help.

yeah the vote was 27-2 or something so it was kinda ******ed, but i felt bad about the whole village turning on you, and i wanted you to know you had at least some support.

in a way i was even hoping you would somehow clear yourself. it would have been so ridic epic, like muhamed ali coming out of retirement and knocking out mike tyson.

My reason for you being a likely, on day 1, wolf was you mounting another empty case that I know you're better than. You did the same thing in Corral as a wolf, and I make that read because I think you tend to WAY more frequently make bad cases as a wolf than as a villager. I think this because I think you're a good villager.

Meanwhile my arguments about rebonk were obviously wrong. Sucks, because he was contradicting himself, but my read based on that was wrong. Like I said above, that's on me.

And I guess I'm also saying I don't believe anyone is so unreadable that they NEVER make a slip d1 either.

You call it an empty case, I call it a wolfy post when you act concerned about Alice (the wolf kill n1 and n2).

My point is, you didn't follow your own rule. You thought it was just fine to make a read on me day 1. Which I agree is a good thing. Me making a read on you was a good thing. Reads are good. Declaring people unreadable is bad.

Alice, what kind of information about the universe did you get while you were still alive?

I'm okay with making a tentative read, and I'm okay with people being wrong. I'm not okay with people gambling on those tentative reads unless that's the VERY BEST read they have.

Which it will never be, or at least should never be.

etc.

It's not very often u have a sure wolf on d1