A corollary here is that lynching them earlier if you have a decent reason is never that bad.

Lynching players that polarize their games is usually a lot worse, even though they're "worse" players.

Regarding the blue: if a player has polarized their game to their wolf game, lynching them is obviously better than lynching anyone else, unless you have peeked wolves.

i don't really understand what you're saying here

so all a wolf has to do is bus wolves and leave good seer cover all game and we can't lynch him?

The problem with clearing someone for being right a lot is, it's not hard for a wolf to be right a lot

If someone that good does this, you have to just accept it and move on. The reason is just math: usually they're a villager. The reason it works is usually, in either role, they will have left good cover and lynched wolves.

The village has to just suck it up or it's going to be wrong way, way more than it's right. Probably close to three times more.

Put another way: the part in blue doesn't matter because that doesn't make being right wolfy, unless you actually want to set up perverse incentives.

It just means this player is competent, and if you don't have a decent - or indeed, a very strong - reason to lynch them otherwise, you cannot lynch them in end-game. You're taking bad odds every time you do.

The whole point here is the problem is intractable. The village's best play is to lose sometimes, instead of lose MORE often because it's afraid of that player.

The BEST partial solution is to be vigilant about peeking them and/or lynching them earlier.

The second-best partial solution is for these players to understand that they NEED to get nk'd as a villager. The problem here is no one can get nk'd every time, no matter how hard they try.

And the reason the village is not giving away much - or even anything - is that sometimes the players I'm talking about will have been peeked wolf, so that removes some percentage of the time this scenario is even possible.

After that, sometimes they will just **** up as a wolf - it happens. So that removes another small percentage of the time that they're a wolf from the end-game scenarios.

You're left with them being a villager probably > 75% of the time, but getting lynched wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more than 25% of the time for no articulable reason.

This is why arguments that a person was "probably bussing" are normally really bad. There is a place for that, but it is said after tons of lynches for no real reason.

hoya i feel like you're oversimplifying or something

most of the time when you lynch a player like that it's because you believe everyone else has been more villagery, so lynching someone who's rand to be villa is actually more likely to hit a wolf

In short, this trend punishes players for being good villagers and loses games for villages. It does, somewhat, blunt the wolf effectiveness of these players, but that's a terribad tradeoff because, again, they're usually not a wolf.

Most of the time that means your reads are bad. I'm not trying to be challenging.

If the best lynch is a rand lynch, the village is sucking hard. That's just obvious. The problem is these players are NEVER, EVER going to be "more villagery" than everyone because that's not possible for them, NO MATTER HOW WELL THEY PLAY for the village. They're almost always going to be a shade or two above or below rand.

And that is not because they are "bad" at getting clear or need to "get better" at it. It is because as a wolf they are often just as clear. That rare occurrence is the reason they have meta that causes them to get lynched when they have played very well.

the point is, it's not a rand lynch when you read everyone else as villagery (assuming reads are good)

the idea is that you can read the 'bad' players and if they're more villagery than wolfy you lynch the 'good' player

And just this part demonstrates why your position isn't tenable - if they're rand to be a wolf, you're wrong more than 2/3s of the time.

Ok, I think I agree with what you're saying for the most part, CPHoya.

For example, I seriously think lynching me before F3 without a really good reason is -ev.

It's not just because I think I'm that great as much as the fact that even if I am a wolf, I'm a villagery wolf, which means most of what I'm saying is going to be pretty reliable anyway.

In general, the desire to lynch someone because you're worried that you're getting owned is detrimental.

but if you *know* others are villagers, they're not a villager as often any more

Right but there are never 11 bad players and 2 good ones or something.

There are usually 2 or 3 bad ones, a bunch of capable players, and like 1 or 2 of these players.

If these players are rand in that pool, that means the reads that can be made are probably wrong.

Just to be clear: I am NOT saying you cannot lynch these players. I'm saying that at END GAME you cannot unless you can articulate a good reason.

"They could have been bussing."

"They wanted to lynch me."

"They're right about too much stuff."

"It's eerie how they predicted _________."

"This conversation could easily be w/w even though it looks w/v."

Are all examples of the terrible stuff villagers say and act on to lynch them. Every one of those is taking the bad odds.

Acting out of fear is almost always (maybe even always) bad.

Yes, this.

The weird thing is you seem to be contradicting your whole dmk agenda this game.

well the real reason behind the lynch is probably POE, not whatever they're actually saying

if they're actually saying the things you quoted

You rarely do, that's the whole point of the game.

You don't *know* your reads. At least I don't think you think you do.

If your reads are certainties that's really bad.

that's not what i'm saying

not that you *know*, but that if you read them as villa then they're more likely villa than wolf

Then for the flip side, use this game as an example.

Maruchan, xxsooted, and WN were all pretty villagery. WN and xxsooted are proven to be able to be that villagery as wolves. Can maruchan sustain that for that long? Probably not. Maruchan shouldn't have been lynched. It should have been xxsooted -> WN. I know this isn't what I said, but what I said was ungood.

"I had a read."

But seriously, I thought I did and like I said above, lynching them before end-game isn't really that bad. It's once you're at a confusing end game that lynching them out of fear / confusion / convenience is terribad.

It's not a disaster on day 3 if DMK dies. But it is a disaster at F5 if he just isn't going to get clear because he pretty much cannot.

That's the point.

The other point is these people need to try REALLLLLLLLLLLY hard to get nk'd.