29/10 Vanilla 13er w/ Monkey Rules: The 20-Post Game - Page 67

Two Plus Two Forums Sports and Games Puzzles and Other Games

29/10 Vanilla 13er w/ Monkey Rules: The 20-Post Game

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 67 of 90

First

17 47 57 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 77 87

Last

Page 67 of 90

First

17 47 57 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 77 87

Last

11-03-2015 , 01:14 PM

#1651

CyberShark93

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 3,325

Quote:

Originally Posted by IAmRobik

If we consensus agree that quarr is a villager, we should 100% be lynching today. I'm willing to lose to him if he's a wolf, so I would rather have his input and have him in the discussion and eventually make the decision on the lynch rather than go to f5 with a bunch of question marks.

We basically made our bed yesterday when we lynching ak and had d_sax get modkilled as a villager, there's no reason to not just continue lynching on schedule today with at least one confirmed* villager. NL at 4 would be much better

we can have quarrr's input today, and will take it into strong consideration tomorrow
but u have to be wary of the case where quarr simply outplayed us.

i'm not willing to lose, to guarantee not losing tonight we still need all 4 villagers to vote right anyway

if quarrr dies, we still need the remaining 3 villager to vote right

Quote

11-03-2015 , 01:16 PM

#1652

Quarrrr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 8,548

Quote:

Originally Posted by IAmRobik

Because then there's a whole "what level are the wolves on" consideration in night kills that I would very much like to avoid thinking about.

Can't really see it changing anything for you.
Unless you have me as a wolf

Quote

11-03-2015 , 01:18 PM

#1653

IAmRobik

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 12,198

Quote:

Originally Posted by CyberShark93

Is this something that you're really concerned about? You genuinely believe that quarr could be a wolf given d1?

Quote

11-03-2015 , 01:19 PM

#1654

CyberShark93

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 3,325

Quote:

Originally Posted by IAmRobik

Is this something that you're really concerned about? You genuinely believe that quarr could be a wolf given d1?

i feel that we are free-rolling some equity by simply waiting a day

Quote

11-03-2015 , 01:26 PM

#1655

IAmRobik

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 12,198

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quarrrr

Can't really see it changing anything for you.
Unless you have me as a wolf

Imagine that we all give our reads and then I get NK'd over you when our reads aren't 100% aligning. Then what? Do you lynch who I said to lynch? Do you continue lynching who you want to lynch? The only way to ensure those shenanigans/mind games don't occur is if you are the only one to really give reads -- again, this is if we're not lynching today. I would prefer if we lynched though because I'm confident in you being a villager and would rather lynch with someone who I have as cleared villa status around than to do it tomorrow without anyone who I can trust.

Quote

11-03-2015 , 01:35 PM

#1656

Quarrrr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 8,548

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lissa2

Allin feels pretty engaged and he hates wolfing, so he's a villager.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

100% disagree. I've seen him have the most WIM out of anyone when he's a wolf. It's why he tends to win as a wolf. That doesn't mean he's a wolf in this game, but to say he's "pretty engaged" and thus "he's a villager" is wrong.

corrects Lissa on it, nothing but it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

Would you please give at least a one sentence explanation for each player you have as a villager and then what you think of the remaining players aorn?

That looks good cause AOS already put a lil suspicion on Lissa on previous post, so I would expect w-w to drop it asap

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lissa2

He has a lot of WIM later but I remember him being disengaged early.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lissa2

It's also partly tone.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

That's a good point. He is a late game WIM wolf.

This is where he drops it, thinly and weirdly. Never comes back to Lissas list with reasoning.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

globetrotter is a villager. Not that I peeked him or anything. He's just immediately engaged and trying to solve the game. If he's experienced enough to do this as a wolf, I tip my hat.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

Hi globetrotter. I see you are a professional WW player.

106 long games. 48 wins. Most of them as a villager. So if you are a villager, I expect some very helpful posts once you catch up.

Those 2 are so comprehentive it's sick, I quoted in wrong order, but you know.

Quote:

Originally Posted by IAmRobik

I sneezed, can I get a villa lean?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

Very wolfy response from Robik to say he's DEFINITELY gone for the day but then pop back in when I point out he said something weird. And now he's voting for me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

...not the reaction I expected

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

I will be sleeping in maybe half an hour.

Currently I have fraleyight and Robik as most wolfy. Robik less wolfy though because him coming after me for voting him is almost TWTBAW and is more in line with him being so OMGUS and reactionary as a villager. I still think that thing about him popping back in is more often a wolf tell, but I am willing to put that aside if consensus is that I'm probably wrong.

fraley for now

Quote:

Originally Posted by LordJvK

Votes from post 4 to post 572
It is night
---

Votes	Lynch	Voters
4	Lissa2	Viggorous (38), aaronk56 (20), Quarrrr (47), globetrotter (27)
3	fraleyight	AllInBluff (46), HiFi (51), Ace of Spaids (31)
2	Quarrrr	Lissa2 (31), aao (54)
1	aaronk56	d_saxton (21)
1	Ace of Spaids	IAmRobik (35)
1	HiFi	fraleyight (92)
1	not voting	CyberShark93 (54)

AOS basically said something in approach figuring out a role to basically everybody, but Fraley, no conversation with fraley, gives leans to everybody quoting and interacting with others. And then Fraley ends up in his wolf list and lateron is dropped a vote on which sticks.

I will try and read upcoming days now.

Quote

11-03-2015 , 01:37 PM

#1657

Quarrrr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 8,548

I don't really wim or re-read or **** ever, so even if I am gonna be wrong this game you better give me a medallion, better yet a trophy.

Quote

11-03-2015 , 02:02 PM

#1658

LordJvK

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 13,489

Votes from post 1565 to post 1657
Night in 4:59:57
---

Votes	Lynch	Voters
7	not voting	aao (13), Ace of Spaids (15), CyberShark93 (25), globetrotter (1), HiFi (5), IAmRobik (9), Quarrrr (12)

Quote

11-03-2015 , 02:04 PM

#1659

Quarrrr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 8,548

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

If fraley is a villager, why didn't Lissa move her vote from Quarrrr to fraley to at least make it flip?

But if they were both wolves, wouldn't they think that letting it flip would clear whoever lived?

It doesn't make sense.

Quote:

Originally Posted by fraleyight

Plus: lissa peeked me villager. She couldn't vote me after peeking me lol. JFC.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

That is an excellent point. So if she voted for you, she would have outed herself regardless of your role. Interesting.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

If we're going off who is likely to have hit the seer, Robik is on my likely wolf list because every game he seer hunts even as a villager and tbh has proven to be quite good at it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

globe,

Are you likely to bus a wolf D1 to the point of getting them lynched? Note that I can check your previous games to verify this.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lissa2

Fraley - peek
Aaron - mostly that long post, liked some other stuff too I think.
Hifi - early tone felt different from when I wolfed with her.
Robik - liked his/aao's interaction about hifi
Aao - liked his read on hifi and general tone
Vigg - don't see him sticking to his push on me as a wolf, would expect him to either villa read me or poke very briefly and drop it
Allin - just said, tone feels engaged in a way I don't think it quite is early game when he's a wolf

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

This looks like Lissa suspecting Viggorous is the seer.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

I highly doubt the wolves bussed another wolf on D1. So that would mean the wolves were all off wagon.

That leaves AllInBluff, HiFi, Quarrrr, aao, d_saxton, Robik, fraley, CyberShark

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

If fraley is a wolf, then his wagon was pure as snow. AllinBluff is SHC. I am a villager. That leaves HiFi.

I want to think HiFi looks good for being on fraley's wagon IF HE IS A WOLF.

Assuming wolves did not buss D1, Quarrrr probably looks good because Lissa was already on him.

That leaves aao, d_saxton, Robik, CyberShark

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

Unless the wagons were w/w and you are the third wolf. In that world, you would be fine voting off wagon because your vote couldn’t save a wolf. And let’s be honest, fraley is the stronger wolf out of Lissa/fraley, so if you had to save one...

This sequence is so pure, could come up with it, only if he actually made and analysis in order to find out who could be wolves judged by wagonomics.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

I don’t understand how you would know with such certainty that Lissa wasn’t here at EOD. I looked over her posts. She made a post at 3pm server time, but she didn’t say anything about not coming back for the rest of the day. She could easily have jumped back in later. So how do you know she was gone aside from her not doing anything? Because an alternate explanation is that she was here but accepted the lynch because the only other viable counterwagon to save herself was a wolf.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

This makes no sense. You're either making a horrendous mistake as a villager or just made a huge TMI.

For myself, want to read back to it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

gtfo with this sophistry. “I would never do this as a wolf” is bull****, because everyone is going to compensate depending on the game state. Unless you’re just a terrible player and you’re an obvious villager vs wolf, but that’s nonsense, ESPECIALLY CONCERNING YOU. Let me see, yes, fraley is currently running hot with no losses as a wolf despite him having such obvious difference between his villager and wolf games that any idiot should be able to figure out his role.

I kept scratching my head as to how aao could spew you villa unless you KNOW aao is a wolf, but aao's comment about the fake peek does look like TMI. And now she is scrambling to cover up her slip. This happened in the last mishmash with Jar Jar Bakes. He made an obvious lie, I called him on it, and then everyone let it go because he made an avalanche of villagery posts afterward.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

fraley

Off to catch up on the other game. Back later.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

The thing about fraley is that it's almost always going to be hard to lynch someone with that much volume and WIM. It's just very hard for a wolf to play like that.

I am always afraid of a deep wolf fraley because deep wolf fraley always wins, but I don't want that to be a reason to lynch him.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

aao,

Why are you voting with Robik if you think he's a wolf?

Quote:

Originally Posted by LordJvK

Votes from post 575 to post 1163
It is night
---

Votes	Lynch	Voters
4	fraleyight	AllInBluff (76), d_saxton (39), aao (48), HiFi (70)
4	aao	Ace of Spaids (33), fraleyight (100), CyberShark93 (44), Quarrrr (67)
1	HiFi	IAmRobik (29)
1	d_saxton	aaronk56 (21)
1	not voting	globetrotter (23)

And then there's mostly fraley suscpecting for wrong reasons as most of you did.

Quote

11-03-2015 , 02:10 PM

#1660

Quarrrr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 8,548

Quote:

Originally Posted by fraleyight

No no no.. It is much deeper than that.

1) I would bus as a wolf there almost 100% of the time. I am a very bussy wolf.
2) I have answered all questions asked of me and are doing so in a very open quick responsive manner (unlike aao)
3) I am not getting lynched at eod and I could just sit back and let you clowns lynch someone else if I were a wolf
4) AAO SPEWED ME VILLA FOR CHRIST SAKES

How does aao know I am a villager? How?? How did she know my peek on robik was fake? Why is she not showing us these villagy posts she found on lissa that caused her to create a cfd to save her?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

Quote:

Originally Posted by aao

Frayley, what you have to realise is that your case on me being a wolf also implies that you are a wolf too.

Why else would I divert the wagons from Lissa and you? Why don't I just vote you and be done with it?

Nope no idea what was this all about, only thing I found was a headache.

Quote

11-03-2015 , 02:12 PM

#1661

Quarrrr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 8,548

Like If I am to believe neither of aao or AOS is the wolf, then what

Quote

11-03-2015 , 02:17 PM

#1662

CyberShark93

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 3,325

I am now close to 100% sure robo is not a wolf, will update full reasoning soon, i feel like i'm making really good progress

i have ruled out all the possible wolf teams robik can be with
(unless its somehow robik quarrr lol)

Quote

11-03-2015 , 02:20 PM

#1663

aao

crazy theorist

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 16,869

Seems like it's HiFi and not confirmed on the last one yet

0 content now the game is interesting. I'm going to see if I can bring up how she played the Rocket League mid-game

Quote

11-03-2015 , 02:25 PM

#1664

aao

crazy theorist

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 16,869

On second thoughts, maybe it's not her.

She tunnelled a 'read' for most part of that game and was hyper active in the thread

Quote

11-03-2015 , 02:26 PM

#1665

IAmRobik

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 12,198

Quote:

Originally Posted by aao

Seems like it's HiFi and not confirmed on the last one yet

0 content now the game is interesting. I'm going to see if I can bring up how she played the Rocket League mid-game

I was having thoughts this morning about you and hifi being members of a wolfpack.

pushing ak56 as a wolf is absurdly ballsy though.

Quote

11-03-2015 , 02:27 PM

#1666

aao

crazy theorist

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 16,869

Who the **** is it??

Quote

11-03-2015 , 02:27 PM

#1667

IAmRobik

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 12,198

Quote:

Originally Posted by aao

On second thoughts, maybe it's not her.

She tunnelled a 'read' for most part of that game and was hyper active in the thread

didn't we go over this already? you keep flip flopping on this "pocket aao" thing.

Quote

11-03-2015 , 02:29 PM

#1668

aao

crazy theorist

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 16,869

Quote:

Originally Posted by IAmRobik

I was having thoughts this morning about you and hifi being members of a wolfpack.

pushing ak56 as a wolf is absurdly ballsy though.

Whilst I admit I have played most of this game as if I were on the wolf team, I am actually a villager.

Quote

11-03-2015 , 02:31 PM

#1669

aao

crazy theorist

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 16,869

Quote:

Originally Posted by IAmRobik

didn't we go over this already? you keep flip flopping on this "pocket aao" thing.

Yes but she was so wolfy yesterday at EOD that I couldn't clear her. Like how on earth does she ever say she is not voting Aaron and then SIX MINUTES LATER vote him?

My earlier thing about her pocketing me is different to this. Reading her posts in Rocket League is just looking like she kept going after Diceman being a wolf there and asking loads of questions to people.

Here she is just non-existent and clueless.

Unless she's playing one ****ing sick wolf game.

Quote

11-03-2015 , 02:34 PM

#1670

CyberShark93

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 3,325

I think AOS is definitely a wolf here going by the first 1k post in ths thread, so far i have ruled out all possible wolf teams except

aao,aos
and
aos,hifi

i have to go for 1/2 hour also in 15 min, will post my full analysis when i get back, i think its aos,hifi a vast majority of the time

Quote

11-03-2015 , 02:35 PM

#1671

IAmRobik

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 12,198

what you're saying makes no sense.

It's easier to post as a villager than as a wolf, so there's no "activity dip = villager" tell which is what you're suggesting.

Actually, that's not 100% true. I think that tell works for 1 person on POG, Batman, who admittedly enjoys wolfing way more than villaging and him having any WIM and steady post count basically makes him a lock wolf.

Quote

11-03-2015 , 02:37 PM

#1672

IAmRobik

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 12,198

Quote:

Originally Posted by CyberShark93

aos/hifi is actually where i'm leaning right now, considering HiFi/aao early d3, but the hifi save and how fickle aao is with regards to her gives me pause. He's basically giving himself outs to not vote her, while making it seem like he can vote her at any point.

Quote

11-03-2015 , 02:39 PM

#1673

CyberShark93

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 3,325

Quote:

Originally Posted by IAmRobik

Sorry, I have to leave for 1/2 hour, but once I comeback and convert my written notes into posts it will be so clear why it is the case

Quote

11-03-2015 , 02:39 PM

#1674

aao

crazy theorist

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 16,869

Okay ... what is WIM?

You all keep posting about it and I have no idea what you are going on about but just pretended to know what I know what you guys are talking anout