Is the entirety of shortys case on me that I voted two villagers or am I missing something?

tao seems like a pretty safe wagon

agree with whoever said TL tone sounded fishy, i think shortline, prob a good rb target

Welp ill be back in an hour or so

Votes from post 2882 to post 3478
Night in 3:00:57
---

Votes	Lynch	Voters
5	Tao1	TimeLady (18), JDalla (4), soah (38), atakdog (28), wahoopride (18)
4	DiggertheDog	metsandfinsfan (112), OrangeRake (4), aaronk56 (12), Nicholasp27 (8)
3	monikrazy	shortline99 (87), Felix the Cat (22), J.D. (10)
2	ZomgHax	Tao1 (18), XXsooted (2)
2	shortline99	vaya (99), Luckbox Inc (28)
2	J.D.	DiggertheDog (63), Telcontar (2)
8	not voting	ZomgHax (8), Sun Tzu (0), OneCrazyDuck (0), Noah (0), monikrazy (2), legend42 (0), keshaldra (0), chuckleslovakian (0)

im glad somebody did this because he was getting a lot of clearance day1/day2 for very little posting

digger

interesting wolf list!

Zomg those are truly terrible lists

for village's sake, STOP. VOTING. DIGGER. unless you think THIS is the day I chose to finally start hard defending wolves.

it isn't. STOP VOTING DIGGER.

ZomgHax (8), Sun Tzu (0), OneCrazyDuck (0), Noah (0), monikrazy (2), legend42 (0), keshaldra (0), chuckleslovakian (0)

At least three wolves in here guaranteed

Just for comparison side-by-side, Nich's posts d4 of his last villager game:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nicholasp27

Yeah, agree that Kokiri isn't a wolf, surprisingly

I still think vr/mets were on same team so villa mets means villa vr IMO

I need to look at wagons etc to see who I want to vote...running low on candidates it seems

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nicholasp27

Did I miss where xkf is shc or something?

I don't wanna go huber or luck based on bremer wagon

I don't wanna lynch zomg or Kokiri

That leaves monkey, xkf, vr and mutigers?

I'm only voting from those 4 today

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nicholasp27

xkf

I feel like game will be solved tomorrow

I need to re-read wagons but I didn't see much room for wolf to get on Bremen last night with how that wagon went...a lot of time u see a wolf on wolf wagon there but not when wagon goes like that...assuming monkey is villa of course

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nicholasp27

Also I think more likely monkey gets on Bremen wagon if wolf so some via points for him there

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nicholasp27

No I said I think Bremen wagon likely all villa

Then I also said I think that monkey woulda joined Bremen wagon if wolf most likely so gets some villa points for not joining

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nicholasp27

The "assuming monkey is villa" part was saying that my conclusion that it was likely all-villa wagon on Bremen is based on the assumption that monkey is a villa

If w/w wagons then the last wolf coulda been on Bremen wagon (tho even then some of the Bremen votes aren't wolf hardly ever)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nicholasp27

9 of us and seer has 3 peeks so if seer has 3 live villas right now then only 5 unknowns that contains 2 wolves so only 3 mislynches possible

7v2
5v2
3v2

It's possible to mislynch 3 and lose so no lock yet



Tomorrow if seer has 4 live then it's lock...if seer has 3 live tomorrow then 4/7 people known so a lock if we lynch villa today

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nicholasp27

If we lynch a wolf today then 6v1 tomorrow so have 2 mislynches allowed

And 4/7 known means 3 unknowns and 1 is wolf so also a lock

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nicholasp27

That doesn't matter

What matters is that village has game locked...personal locked villagers still get mislynched

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nicholasp27

Yes you would

Village doesn't have u clear so u could get mislynched


No room for egos when talking lock...lock means lock

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nicholasp27

Lol

I forgot that everyone got off monkey earlier for the lolzomg wagon

I'll need to look back to see if monkey gets any villa points for not voting Bremen...I don't think so now but he may at least avoid wolf points depending on how it went down

and from today:

This post draws no conclusions on anything. It's a list of voters followed by some narration of events. Lots of words, nothing accomplished. He says there must be at least one wolf on Elliot, which is an obvious and easy thing to say, but he offers no opinion on who it could be.

and from d4 of his last wolf game:

ok, so he subbed out before d4 of his last wolf game


-----------------------------------------

His analysis in this game seems a lot dryer than the village posts I quoted, which I think are an accurate representation of his village game in 2013. I remain unconvinced that what he is doing in this game matches it. The stuff I highlighted in red all shows some form of subjective reasoning, or personal interpretation of events. You can see that it's in all of his content posts, to at least some extent. It's not present very much in today's posts. His villager list is just a straight copy/paste of who voted for wolves, plus the addition of me. And it's sloppy in that he wants to give bonus points to JDalla for switching from moni to TEPM, even though JDalla made a failed attempt to switch to moni at the end. Apparently Nich missed that. If he were paying close attention and actually thinking about people's actions, it seems like it would be tough to overlook that.

To be fair, his posts yesterday did more closely resemble the villager quotes that I've quoted here, so I am cherry-picking the evidence to some extent. I believe some people were giving him credit for his vote on YP9 yesterday. This is absurd. He started on Elliot, joined the Digger cfd, then went onto bobman in spite of defending him in multiple previous posts, then finally went to YP9 after a fresh vote count showed YP9 5 votes beyond the lead. Nich is not a wolf who never buses, and that was a pretty safe spot to vote a wolf. The YP9 wagon had no momentum and was still well behind the lead, with the lead wagon having all the momentum and shorty shouting in favor of it.

Furthermore, he has some points against him:

- d1, he said that lynching Thingy was correct if I don't unclaim. His last post was 23 minutes before night. I unclaimed, and nothing happened from him.

- yesterday, he was ignoring the thread until a wagon formed on him, and then he finally showed up just 20 minutes later, fully caught up

- He posted yesterday something about moni looking like a good wolf candidate because his wagon was clean. He's also talked several times about how the d1 analysis can't be completed until we know moni's role. I would think that Nich being Nich, he would be all over moni today because it's a chance to both lynch a wolf and to fix the big hole in his wagon analysis. Today, he mentions again about us not knowing moni's role, but it's only used as part of his logic for justifying a Digger vote, and quite frankly that justification looks really bad. Also, he'd said something about Tao being a likely wolf if Neil's angel claim were true, yet he says nothing of Tao today after Neil dies as angel.

Guess you're going to have to push that tao wagon a little harder

J.D. has no traction once again...

what about a Keshaldra wagon ?


(at the very least to make him get out of wolfchat and in here posting ? )

not in that your villagers aren't villagers, just in that it's such an easy village list to make. and your wolf list seems rand(), doubtful you can justify all of them.

Though I suppose it's at least mildly interesting that you're not voting tao or even really pushing him

And soah's now taking an interest in the game

I'm on monikrazy, actually. I'm not pushing "people who aren't digger", I'm pushing likely wolves. Digger is a villager. Quit the bull****.

I pushed him all day, got him to make a ****ty seer claim and recant it, then Tao posted that he won't be in the thread the rest of the day. I have nothing to gain anymore by voting him until night comes closer.

Monikrazy and ZomgHax are the people who need pressure now.

If Tao flips wolf you'd better believe I'm going to take some credit.

Ok ch.illto.wn

I may not be around for the next few hrs very much and I may miss night entirely so please:

1) DO NOT VOTE FOR DIGGER.
2) Definitely vote for ZomgHax / Monikrazy
3) Keep posting thoughts on Tao and everyone else
4) Stop trying to find reasons not to vote for people that I'm pushing that look like "Shorty is pushing them so I won't vote them" - I'm a villager so guess what? That looks real ****ing wolfy to me.

I'll at least phone post w a vote if I feel the need to change.

Ignore day1,day2 and day 3, they are for my own reference!

Skip down to day 4 for my current..... 5 and 5!


Day 1 :



Day 2 :




Day 4 :

Villagers

ShortLine
luckbox
legend
timelady
mets

Wolves

J.D.
aaronk
ocd
kesheldra
tao

You should have bussed noah

bleh, sorry for being gone most of the day, had irl stuff going on and forgot to post about it yesterday

i did manage to read some last night and may be throwing caution to the wind and just trusting shorty today, but i'll let you know whether i mean that or not once i do some catching up

Why do you trust shorty

Don't say "cause I think he's villa"

it is also acceptable to lick minerals