Surprised nobody started this yet.

This is a predict-the-states game. You name which candidate you think will win each state, plus Washington DC. You get 1 point for each state you guess correctly. Ties will be broken firstly by who has the closest number of electoral votes. As a secondary tiebreaker, tell me the candidate that will win the popular vote and the number of votes that they will win it by.

Also, because there are 51 things to list you can shorten it as long as it's clear to me what you mean. For example, you can say "just like the 2004 election except for X, Y, Z, and W which should go the opposite way."

You must enter by the October 28th, one week before election day. If you enter now you may change your answers later, but not after October 28th.

just like the 1908 election except for the Louisiana Purchase

Obama: blue states
McCain: red states

ftw

i predict that the winning submission will get them all correct

i predict i will play this game


god i'm going to destroy the nostradamus game

you mean 57 things to list right?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OrsBKGpwi58

you're forgetting Puerto Rico

since when does puerto rico have electoral votes?

where else do those 3 extra votes come from?

is it DC?

*yeah, its D.C, opps

Most of those extra states will go to Bob Barr or Ralph Nader.

I don't even think this is right any more.

But where I live (Texas) I think it's pretty solid.

I will boldly predict Utah will go to McCain

I'll see your Utah and raise you Oklahoma for McCain

key states:

Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada

Hawai'i for Obama IYAM

The idea behind the Utah statement was obviousely that everyone who comes after me and includes Utah as a McCain state just built on my work.

I predict that Alaska will be won by McCain

oh sweet its like a 2nd politics thread

Except with an actual game!

I predict Obama to win the blue states when you open intrade

can someone list all the things for me.

Also, are there any set rules for playing presidential election twister?

well I may be the only one to take this game seriously, but I'm in. I got caught up thinking about the game this evening and whipped up a quick website to catalog my predictions up until the October 28 deadline. you can check it out at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

i'll believe it when you post from your NateThaGreat account

I'll be serious. I've been meaning to update the one I did earlier in the politics thread anyway.

Locks vs. Toss-ups

Obama (286 EVs): Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Virginia, Maryland, DC, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maine
McCain (136 EVs): Alaska, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, South Carolina

I'd be very shocked if any of those states turn up as surprises.

Too Close to Confidently Call Right Now (116 EVs):
Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Arkansas, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida

Predicted by Candidate, in order of confidence from most confident to least:

Toss-Ups I'd Predict for McCain (58 EVs): Montana, Georgia, North Dakota, Ohio, Arkansas, Indiana

Comments:

- MT/GA are both getting some play as potential flips in an Obama landslide, but recent polls put the margins there at probably +5 to +8 McCain. Close enough that I do think they could flip in an Obama landslide, but I think the polling is probably pretty accurate here. GA is slightly more likely to flip than MT because I think his GOTV effort is more likely to be successful there, but I highly doubt either one flips. ND is probably +4 McCain, so a more reasonable toss-up state but still on the edges. IN and OH are both pure toss-up according to current polling; due to proximity, I think IN flips before OH does. Despite the tightness and even slight Obama leads in OH recently, I just don't see him winning there -- I wouldn't be surprised if he won all the states I project, plus IN/ND/AR, but still lost OH. AR is an intriguing state, simply because Rasmussen put it at +9 a month ago and it hasn't been polled since. MO's rapid movement plus some potential Clinton effect makes me think AR is winnable in the absence of recent polling data, but people started thinking that about WV and then new polling popped that bubble. If new polling comes out showing it's still +5 or more McCain here, AR moves up to GA/ND territory.

Toss-Ups I'd Predict for Obama (58 EVs): Nevada, Missouri, North Carolina, Florida

Comments: Feel pretty confident on NV and MO, probably on the level of ND/GA for McCain -- but if the race starts tightening up, I think McCain can still recapture these states. I think NC and FL will be razor-thin, 1 or 2 points Obama win -- roughly what I'd project for McCain in IN and OH (again, I think McCain almost certainly wins OH but that it will also almost certainly be a narrow victory), and possibly AR pending more polling.

A final note: I don't project either candidate to take single EVs in states where some are decided by congressional district (Maine and Nebraska).

FINAL PROJECTIONS
OBAMA: 344 total (286 strong, 58 lean/razor-thin)
MCCAIN: 194 total (136 strong, 58 lean/razor-thin)

Map Screenshot from RCP, with strong and lean/razor-thin indicated:

What do you make of the recent polls that show McCain gaining support? According to the Toronto Sun, based on averages over a number of polls, he's gone from 10 points back to 5 points back in the last couple weeks.