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2/8 - Die Hard 2 : Die Harder Vanilla+ Werewolf Game Thread 2/8 - Die Hard 2 : Die Harder Vanilla+ Werewolf Game Thread

02-10-2016 , 02:06 PM
Lord has been in full troll mode for a while now. So ****ing irritating, but a wise man once told me that the annoying and irritating people are usually not wolves
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02-10-2016 , 02:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mucksandgravs
If I was the SK, there would be dead wolves in the night
fwiw, I agree

I think the odds are likely wolves know exactly who the sk is

There are only a few options left for failure of kills and the sk couldn't have targetted an angeled wolf twice, so at most he only did it once

If it's batm he was roleblocked n1

If it's not batm, n1 either the wolves roleblocked him, he hit an angeled wolf (in which case he has an outed wolf that should die n2 because yay angels), or he failed his condition

but if he failed his condition he couldn't fail it again the next day. He'd already know who not to target. So either he hit an angeled wolf or was roleblocked

Both options seem pretty likely, and either way I kind of think we have a good shot of having a wolf die tonight at the SK's hands
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02-10-2016 , 02:07 PM
#polar bear jumping out of water.gif
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02-10-2016 , 02:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mucksandgravs
Lord has been in full troll mode for a while now. So ****ing irritating, but a wise man once told me that the annoying and irritating people are usually not wolves
Did you read my post on Lord in the last Die Hard game earlier?
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02-10-2016 , 02:07 PM
Anything revealed today yet?
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02-10-2016 , 02:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montecore
And ace, we had an outed wolf yesterday and I slammed because I was busy and wasn't able to catch up prior to getting in site so I was constantly 500+ posts behind

Now I'm caught up and in it

So step off and stop wasting time wondering about something that isn't actionable for days

It's wolfy
I don't see it being wolfy but that's mainly due to the fact that I'm a villager and have the same feelings.
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02-10-2016 , 02:08 PM
The first comment about the wolf dying n2 is a hypothetical world where the SK in fact was not roleblocked

because if he hit an angeled wolf n1 then he certainly had to have been roleblocked n2, because otherwise I'm certain the same player would have been shot
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02-10-2016 , 02:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by theycallmehail
I don't buy this.


1. What are the odds that BenAO peaks wolf/wolf n0 and n1 in a 26 player game?

2. What are the odds that 1 of those peaks is the godfather?

3. If in the unlikely event that this is what happened, why does Montecore help me try so solve the game by reminding me that he could theoretically be the Godfather?
As fmx said, 1 and 2 are related, and his n0 and n1 are completely independent of each other odds-wise.

If monte didn't point out that he isn't mechanically clear, plenty of other people would do it for him.

I think you are in a solving cul-de-sac and should chuck a U-ey as the Aussies say.
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02-10-2016 , 02:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lissa2
I feel like nobody is paying spurs any attention

This bothers me
I thought he was OK yesterday but I don't have him in my villager pile. What are your thoughts on him?
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02-10-2016 , 02:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by theycallmehail
Ok, so how unlikely?
The odds that Monte was godfather given a villa peek was approximately 1/15 when it happened. Now it's given further information the odds of Monte = gf are higher than that, the extent of which depends on how wolfy you think Monte is.
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02-10-2016 , 02:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rtspurs
As fmx said, 1 and 2 are related, and his n0 and n1 are completely independent of each other odds-wise.

If monte didn't point out that he isn't mechanically clear, plenty of other people would do it for him.

I think you are in a solving cul-de-sac and should chuck a U-ey as the Aussies say.
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02-10-2016 , 02:11 PM
fwiw I kind of believe the peek
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02-10-2016 , 02:11 PM
Also, I skimmed a little thid morning.

All I can say is If you guys don't have the balls to vote gad that is fine, but Lord is in full wolf troll mode (exactly the same as the MU game and the last die hard) so o consider the fact he does not have all the cites today as village self sabotage.
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02-10-2016 , 02:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mexineil
Unless you hit an angel or were RBd, this is the one sticking point in my theory, I'll admit.
True.
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02-10-2016 , 02:11 PM
I mean, independent of the peek

Monte has a certain snarkiness to him I like
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02-10-2016 , 02:12 PM
I could vote lord, QB

I am unsure who would follow
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02-10-2016 , 02:12 PM
all the votes today.


Gad and lord are outed wolves and you guys have probable V/V wagons. This is pathetic and I want ninth g to do with it.
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02-10-2016 , 02:12 PM
Lord
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02-10-2016 , 02:13 PM
Plus if lord is a wolf he's long since spewed me villager so heavily it's not even funny

so I'm doubly happy to do this
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02-10-2016 , 02:14 PM
inb4 "votes on me are terrible and monstrman is a wolf"

also nice homework you're doing that the rest of the village is too lazy to do
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02-10-2016 , 02:14 PM
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02-10-2016 , 02:14 PM
I'm more than a little conflicted about lord

On the one hand, I am inclined to believe that stork votes him as w/w where he did approximately never

On the other hand... his posts
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02-10-2016 , 02:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lissa2
I feel like nobody is paying spurs any attention

This bothers me
Its getting to the stage where if you are actually a villager you should really sort out this leak.

I mean every single game we play together you call me wolfy.

In 2 games recently you even used it as cover for any easy mislynch as a wolf.

Is this now your policy regardless of role?
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02-10-2016 , 02:15 PM
^ From that one of Gad / QB also almost certainly wolf, lingering off-wagon. Money on Gad more than QB, but possible both.

Lissa also looks sketchy along with Ace. Again, off-wagon.
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02-10-2016 , 02:16 PM
Is Lord seriously putting biggerboat on his wolf list?

And there's a pretty good level 0 explanation for why bigger, tappo, and I would be voting batm together two different days. I'll leave that as an exercise for the reader
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