Sangacliffs
I spent 3-5 hours today rereading the thread and responding to Sun today. Started off the day leaning towards lynching Loretta (who was a near lock wolf and had all but conceded) then Sun. Over the course of the day, I changed my mind to believe the wolf team was Loretta/Anarchist. This was due largely to the effort Sun put in as well as numerous good points he made showing that he was a villager and Anarchist was a wolf. And I also realized that the Fluttershy NK, which made Anarchist SHC, had a good chance of being FPS since I realized the wolves might not have been sure whether the seer was VM or 27a and killing them but missing would have been disastrous.
Anyway, w/ 1 hour left in the day I write up a post in notepad and I wait to post it until Domer is done reading the thread. He'd showed up a little earlier and asked me to give him time so he could read, and I did. I didn't want to just give him orders to lynch Anarchist in f3 (at this point I assumed a Loretta lynch in f5 was a given) so I waited to post my thoughts until he was done reading.
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
based on a re-reading of day 1, I very strongly believe anarchist needs to go tonight sanga.
I saw this post and I thought to myself "well, looks like he's pretty convinced the wolves are Anarchist/Loretta too, I won't need to do much convincing." I went back into notepad and emphasized that domer should give Anarchist a chance to talk in f3. I also added a note that Loretta should go first since there was a chance Anarchist was a villager but virtually no chance Loretta was. Then I posted what I had in notepad:
Quote:
Originally Posted by sangaman
My thoughts and lynch recommendations:
Lynch Loretta today.
After that, I still think it's pretty close and I'm not super confident, but I would lynch Anarchist next. This is different from what I would have done yesterday. I reevaluated everything, and I think this game makes more sense if Sun Tzu is a villager. Particularly given Sun's excellent efforts and arguments today, I think he's the final villager.
The biggest hang-up I had about lynching anarchist is thinking for a reason why the wolves would NK Flutter even if her peeks were wrong. Well, after thinking it through I think it's plausible it wasn't a seer hunt for several reasons. Flutter's cover was broken with her Jinxy peek on d. Then VM showed up on d4 with correct peeks. I think the wolves basically got to n4 and every villager was crossed out of seer contention. Only 27a and VM had correct peeks, but they'd both "blown" their seer contention repeatedly this game. I think the wolves realized that if they NKed 27a or VM and were wrong, their fate was sealed. So they NKed Fluttershy, hoping they'd be able to figure out who the seer was by the next day. In the meantime, they had a very tiny chance that Flutter was a seer with a flipped peek but, more significantly, a chance that the seer would peek a wolf other than Anarchist so that Anarchist would be SHC and set up to win the game.
That's the story that makes the most sense to me right now. I think we should lynch Loretta then Anarchist. I think tomorrow Anarchist should be given a chance to defend himself tomorrow, he shouldn't be a turbo lynch, but if I had to pick two people to lynch right now it would be Loretta and Anarchist. Anarchist should have a chance to respond to this and if he can make a better case, then you should listen to him. But today definitely went to Sun, and I also think Sun Tzu's entire body of work in this thread is more likely to come from a villager than Anarchist's. I don't have time to go into all the details now, but it's all there in Sun's posts today and some of mine.
Let me know what you think and if there's anything you want to discuss. Or really just ask me anything, I'm here to help, and I'm guessing I'll probably be dead tonight so this is my last chance to help the village and I'm not going to waste it.
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Domer, I see you want to vote Anarchist tonight. It might not make a huge difference, but I think Loretta is nearly a lock wolf and the better/safer play is to lynch him today.
At this point I'm still blissfully unaware that Domer wants to lynch Anarchist/Sun Tzu. At the time, letting Loretta live in f3 was almost as incomprehensible of an idea to me as letting a peeked wolf live in f3.
Then I went and started making dinner. Almost 15 minutes later I checked on the thread to see if Domer had any questions for me and I saw this post:
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
sanga, heed my advice, heed flutter's advice, and heed VM's advice....sun tzu is the wolf.
anarchist
Sun tzu is the wolf? Vote Anarchist? WTF is going on over here. Then I looked back and realized that, from skimming over d1 and d2, domer had convinced himself that the thread consensus for days was wrong and Loretta was a villager and had ALREADY VOTED.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sangaman
Wow, it went COMPLETELY over my head that you think Loretta is a villager here. I did not see that coming at all.
As WN and I were saying yesterday, you can't read too much into the VM kill because you can't tell what level the wolves are on.
"also notice that loretta voted first in a must-lynch. that's a villa play most every single time." That's news to me.
I thought Loretta's day 1 was very wolfy, that's why I made a wagon against him d1 and had him near the bottom of my reads list d2.
Hold on I have to rethink everything here. I was definitely not expecting you to say Loretta is a villager.
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
sanga dont screw this up tomorrow plz. do not overthink it.
your first post should be a bold sun tzu, and just wait for loretta to arrive.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sangaman
Hahaha my head is spinning right now. Wtf is going on.
Sun shows up with a few minutes left in the day and was quiet. I didn't know whether Anarchist was a villager and we'd just lost the game or what. At that point, we should have decided to take the f3 decision to leave Loretta alive out of Domer's hands, but there was no time to talk and we lynched Anarchist. Then Domer turbo lynched Sun Tzu in f3 before anyone posted. The end.