So that's the blueprint. I'm about to crash so I'll start actually working on that tomorrow.

Mod Note- In the event of a 1 villager- 1 neutral tie, there will be a thunderdome to break the tie. We will not have co-winners. We will not have flips.

Okay, I wondered about that since she co-modded with hardcore and that's how the last 1-1 tie got settled.

In that case we don't go with the no lynch, right? We have to just assume we're 50/50 to win the thunderdome, so voting someone out this gameday leaves us favorites to win. If we don't have a strong candidate at F3 we're in far worse shape than that.

Anyway, going to bed now.

Okay not in bed quite yet.

But yeah, if our lynch today was totally random and then if we're wrong we still have presumably a 50/50 shot...that leaves our win equity at 62.5% if we execute some sort of lynch today. That assumes the SK actually makes a kill at night though, which he may not. NAs are non-compulsory. So if we mislynch and make it 2-1 maybe he abstains and we play a F3. If the SK thinks that's his better chance then we're getting two cracks at the SK out of four people. At random that gives us a 50/50 shot at least. With info I'd like to think we can sharpen it above 50/50 anyway.

If we go no lynch, SK kills someone and it's down to 2-1. At that point a mislynch loses the game and we're leaving ourselves with only one decision.

Yeah, we make a decision and lynch someone tonight. No question in my mind that our win equity is better that way.

Er doesn't that mean we can no lynch here, then no lynch at f3, and automatically play thunderdome for flip? That would be kind of hilarious. And, weird.

Oh its not even must lynch cool

I will return tomorrow when I wake up, I intend to sleep in quite a while

****DEAD****

gl guys

****DEAD****

is the week-end only one day?

i am going to reread the entire game now

i rescind the claim that i could be the SK

i merely wanted to be in the f3 and put the team on my back

you can understand

for i have the wim

you know crossnerd violence isn't always the best solution

what if the SK deep down in his heart regrets that he became a killer and now wants to walk in the path of the light and become a villager?

something to think about crossnerd, just something to think about

btw i think our win percentage is a bit higher if we can eliminate me from being the SK

would the SK get super tunneled and be super aggro on timelady and just in general? i was in my own corner of the village sort of just yelling all game long like a crazy person. i think the tack is villagery or slightly in my wolf range. an SK is going to focus on blending in, being villagery while being noncontroversial.

i think this read on me is fair and accurate(tm), and that i cannot be the SK nearly ever

hello

I wanna say its probably not ct. He needs to kill at least some of the people determined to lynch him and other than TL (I think?) none of the kills were trying hard to lynch him. Also she was a mislynch and doesn't make sense to kill mislynch targets as a mislynch (vmf too).

Putting post on this page so I can work from it.

Domer on VMF the day before VMF died:

He's fine with this one read of VMF's, and as a result Monte was lynched that night and flipped wolf.

Later:

This is in a response to vix saying that VMF was one of the three wolfiest posters in the thread.

I can only conclude from these two posts that domer thought VMF was more likely to be bussing than anything.

The day after VMF died:

Okay so this should show up in a reread of vix (aside from the post domer was agreeing with above), but I'll quote it here to remind myself that domer said it.

Anyway, domer fulfills the requirement of having some clear skepticism about VMF.

Domer on TL the day before she died:

I don't have to reread for this. Yes he was certainly of the opinion that she was wolfing, so he fits perfectly for that kill.

Domer on me during d3 (that's what that layout post should say...d3, not d2):

He was on me like crazy all day and thought I was wolf. BUT, he was on me during the EOD where Kruze and I were lead wagons. Then he jumped off of me and onto Kruze, which ended in Kruze's mislynch. He did this because

He correctly deduced that there was something shady about binkles jumping onto me. So it definitely fits that he was trying to get a wolf, and it also fits that binkles shook his read on me, so it would make sense for him to not shoot me that night as he absolutely had to try for a wolf. Being more confident about TL and shooting her instead of me makes perfect sense.

domer on gtpitch

Bolding the relevant bit from two days before the gtpitch kill:

But the day before gtp died at night, he's including him on the wolf team:

He does hedge a little in this post, though he doesn't go all the way back on it.

Domer fits each element that I was looking for really well. He's the early favorite to draw my vote. I'll read vix next.

im on page 6 at the moment in my reread

lkj are you really trying to case me?
you think i am posting that much and that aggressively as a SK?
are you out of your gd mind?

1. Yes.
2. Perhaps. I'm still performing due diligence. Your aggressive posting was making you clear, so it was as good of a style as anything. You don't strike me as someone who ever plays non-aggressively regardless of role anyway.
3. Yes.

just imagine for a second that we lynch TL on day 1, it was certainly plausible, and i never stopped pushing it ever

so what happens to me in that scenario?

RIP domer2 on d2, you are suspected of being a wolf
gjge SK domer2 you played like a total moron

so how in your right mind can you say I am the SK?

no the SK is going to be posting cautiously

so far all 3 of you are posting cautiously in my reread but I do have some idea of who is pinging me as SK but I don't want to blow my load now if my mind changes as I read the thread

the wolves said they knew who the SK was, and I don't see them lying at that point, so the day we lynched SOG they might have spewed it, but ill get to that eventually, I want to read the game as it flowed

Vix on VMF

Confirmed, vix was all about VMF = wolf on d1 and d2. That prong is fulfilled for vix more strongly than it is for domer.

Vix on TL

He was fighting her lynch in a bunch of posts as she became a consensus. He kept hedging on her and didn't want to call her a villager, but just stated repeatedly that she was a bad lynch. This post pretty much encapsulates how he was regarding her:

That was how he talked about her throughout.

Vix on me

He didn't vote me at EOD3, so that's points against him since he didn't seem to be someone with a huge amount of bloodlust toward me. Confirmed from these posts, I wasn't really in his wolf list by that point. He did accuse me at times, but this was who he had thought as he was being self-effacing at the next SOD:

Wait. Actually here it is, apparently without saying so he really thought that TL was a likelier wolf than me. I don't think he's necessarily gonna lie about this, because at this stage in the game the SK was as desperate to get a wolf as the rest of us were. So okay, this shot lines up fine to be vix = SK.

vix on gtpitch on d4

...okay so yeah he lines up as a gtpitch shooter that night too.

Vix lines up just about as well as domer does. I still slightly lean toward it being domer, but vix does make sense with the kills. Onto CT.

None of this resonates. If posting cautiously would be a stark tone shift for you then it's not what you're going to do in any role. You'd be far easier to POE that way.

I "fit all the elements" too, just saying ahead of time. Hardcore came at me over it and there's not like much defense I can make other than "but that's not my role." I am wondering if the sker was making kills with other peoples reads in mind - this would make me suspect LKJ (he handles the accusation of sking reasonably well a few days ago); domer has been villagery the whole time, like I don't agree that if TL is mislynched that he's in immediate danger (for instance, when she died nobody thought he was a wolf for it, I get the argument he's making about if it happened d1 tho). And as for CT, already said what I think on him.

Yea, like I said

Also I wasn't pushing VMF for being a wolf exactly, the early days I just wanted to lynch all the utr and people playing terrible. All those posters I wanted to lynch d1 were just inactive. VMF trolling me is just ok kill him plz.