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1/12 Apartments Vanilla WW Game 1/12 Apartments Vanilla WW Game

01-18-2012 , 11:38 AM
Awesome post WN! I'm still not seeing Montecore as a wolf. I just cant wrap my head around it. Ill think more about it though. Mcavoy>Gad>****mypants are my picks

Job orientation. Be back ~hr before EOD. Wish me luck
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01-18-2012 , 12:50 PM
I'm having one of those days so far where I actually have to "work" so I may be delayed or not get as much of my agenda done as I'd like

talk amongst yourselves :P
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01-18-2012 , 01:03 PM
I don't really have much to say at this point. McAvoy won't flip villa, but if he does I can reassess then, depending on who is nked.
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01-18-2012 , 01:58 PM
So...yup.
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01-18-2012 , 03:08 PM
mcavoy
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01-18-2012 , 03:56 PM
Re-reading d1 is making me positive that VMF should never be lynched.
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01-18-2012 , 03:58 PM
McAvoy works for me to.

Tomorrow should be interesting if he's somehow not a wolf.
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01-18-2012 , 04:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montecore
McAvoy works for me to.

Tomorrow should be interesting if he's somehow not a wolf.
Nah, people will just lynch me and then you guys'll be at ML before you know it.
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01-18-2012 , 04:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gadarene
Nah, people will just lynch me and then you guys'll be at ML before you know it.
Well that should be fun.
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01-18-2012 , 04:55 PM
Assorted d1 stuff:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Felix the Cat
I just listened to it and ROFL

blame luckay imo

so VMF cliffs:
  • First into the thread
  • Waits 10 minutes, then calls Iversonian villa really light
  • Does some other stuff I don't quite remember, not really important imo
  • Gets onto CPHoya for fluffing, when d1 fluffing is standard, and there's others fluffing as well (JimHalpert, Aksdal)

VarianceMinefield
Quote:
Originally Posted by VarianceMinefield
Felix the Cat he sung it so i could not tone read him
Quote:
Originally Posted by iversonian
I like binkles' list that he has on #430. I'll feed off that and offer my own. I'll go wolvy to villy.

I find vmf wolfy too. No strong reads for me, but vmf is playing a lot different from his other village play, and I've played with him a lot, actually. I don't want to top off exactly what he's doing differently so that he doesn't correct, if he is in fact wolf.

Jim: So I gather he's the big man on campus. And he's so good he's unreadable, right? Well, I hope his highness isn't offended if lowly me takes a shot. His probes, trying to elicit a wolf tell, and then 30 posts later saying exactly what he was doing makes no sense as villa, imo. I'm going to follow other people's opinions on this matter, as it seems like a more promising way to understand his behavior.

Felix: My last post on him notwithstanding, I don't like it from a villa standpoint. Unless he was like, "I'm going to make a drunk vid" from the start, it seems like a way of posting massive fluff in one go.

Wizard: This read will develop over time. Not going to make a call based on that turbo.

Aksdal, I can't figure out. I've only played with him in an ongoing game, and he's as inscrutable as a sphynx. He does play the similarly, though.

binkles: I don't understand any of the heat on you from earlier.

Since I put vmf on top, I'll vote him to put some heat on. Raise for info.
The main thing I want to say about this is that I think it's slightly more likely for a wolf to make a villager reads list the basis for his own reads list then a co-wolf, and that is worth a point for captain binkles. Additionally, the fact that both felix and iversonian are pushing VMF early is another (somewhat less important than other things) reason to suppose VMF a villager

Quote:
Originally Posted by iversonian
Posts doing reads on himself and pushing back at ppl with wolfy reads on you? This is all stuff I haven't seen from you, bro. Cmon, show me some of that ol' time villa religion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by iversonian
VMF: I'm here, I'm reading all your stuff. You're right, I remember the actual order of things. My main point still stands, which is that you are very different from your usual villa game. This isn't like some binding vote. I'm just seeing how this develops. Act natural, bro. If you're a villa, you have nothing to worry about.
Quote:
Originally Posted by VarianceMinefield
i am being natural. i jsut think your read list is fishy and u voted me without knowing what happened right
iversonian pushed back a lot on VMF calling him wolfy which I like also for VMF. These interactions feel very natural.


Quote:
Originally Posted by VarianceMinefield
kind of a weird post he says 6/6 villa (i think)

which at first i thought was a bit weird but then decided it was whatever

but he follows it up with a record of whats happened. that he won the first 4.

it seems weird to say he thinks 6/6 and then confidently say past games.

feels wolfy looking back
Quote:
Originally Posted by VarianceMinefield
yeah looking back on it now hoya was right.

this is classic new wolf. asking a lot of questions.

im going to move hoya to slight villager and iversonian to the wolf list
More village points for VMF

Quote:
Originally Posted by McAvoy
I don't get how he can call this villagery. Why would a villager ever be uncomortable by a player pressing to solve the game?
Quote:
Originally Posted by McAvoy
note: I looked for evidance of wn's wolfiness after I decided to vote for him.
Quote:
Originally Posted by McAvoy
IVERSONIAN vs well named wagons today imo
Quote:
Originally Posted by McAvoy
wolves
cphoya
wizard
well named
iversonian
The main thing that struck me about this is that later on when the iversonian wagon occured mcavoy had literally nothing to say about it. He was clearly in the thread for some period of time prior to EOD because he first attempted to snipe CDL, and then re-sniped noah.

In the most interesting part of the day as the wagons were very close between noah, CDL, and VMF, with the iversonian conversation starting, mcavoy didn't have anything to contribute re: iversonian, who he earlier had as a wolf read. This is not good.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Noah
Some initial thoughts:

I think VMF is a villager, I've villaged with him and wolfed with him recently and I feel pretty good about being able to tell his tone lately.

Aksdal is definitely a villager.
More small VMF villager points

Quote:
Originally Posted by iversonian
If they're easy mislynches and difficult to clear, you would still rather lynch them than someone who is more obvious to tell apart, no? Not sure what we should to to especially accomodate them. It simply means, if this is true, that proper village play will result in their mislynch more often than average, and there's not much you can do about it.

Don't know wizard that well, just making a point on the above logic.
This logic is so weird, in that he's really trying to justify mislynching wizard. I think it is village points for wizard

Quote:
Originally Posted by iversonian
I guess here's my table:

villa:
jim
sun
well named
aksdal


felix
luckay
montecore
gadarene

wolf:
wizard
vmf
noah
I don't know how to interpret this in any conclusive way, but what stands out to me are that montecore and gad are in the middle, and that captain binkles and mcavoy are not mentioned at all.

Quote:
Originally Posted by captain binkles
Votes as of post 715
Night in 03:00

---
VotesLynchVoters
3 captain binkles VarianceMinefield (72), Montecore (29), Sun Tzu (69)
3 Noah Aksdal (73), JimHalpert (129), McAvoy (32)
3 VarianceMinefield captain binkles (42), Felix the Cat (15), iversonian (48)
1 Aksdal CalledDownLight (12)
1 Gadarene LuckayLuck (21)
1 JimHalpert well named (26)
1 LuckayLuck Gadarene (60)
1 Sun Tzu Wizard-50 (23)
3 not voting Andynan (8), CPhoya (46), Noah (5)
Quote:
Originally Posted by captain binkles
Let me elaborate on why I think VMF was contradictory here.

1. He thinks I'm a wolf because I talk about easy mislynches and I'm trying to set up Wizard-50 for a lynch.

2. He then says that Binkles/Wizard are w/w. How on earth can I be setting up a 'mislynch' of Wizard if we're both wolves?

3. And it can't be because vmf thought Wizard was wolfy for other reasons, because he has no other reasons.
Even though captain is on the VMF wagon with two wolves, I kind of like this post for a few reasons

a) From re-reading captain is the only one to really give a more or less plausible explanation for his VMF read that seems villagery

b) It seems somewhat unlikely that 3/4 of the wolf team would vote together given the wagons, although of course it does happen. I value (a) more than (b) here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by McAvoy
dal,

I really love your wolf list except Jim, so much so that I am hard clearing Sun on d1
I don't understand what this means.


Quote:
Originally Posted by iversonian
Just got back, starting at end and working back since I'm intimidated by the stuff on page 8. I'm so out of my league here.

I agree vmf is leaning villa now. Next on my wolf reads list is wizard.
One may wonder why iversonian didn't push captain binkles. In a vacuum this may look suspicious. I think it less so when you recall that previously iversonian called captain villagery and based his reads list on the captain's.

The other thing that ameliorates this suspicion for me is that iversonian put his neck out there quite a bit in a few posts defending noah, but he never did that for captain binkles, despite the fact that it would have been less awkward for him to do so for binkles then for noah. I take that to mean he didn't care if binkles was lynched

Quote:
Originally Posted by CPHoya
I'm pretty close to trying to lynch iversonian here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimHalpert
gad, can you give a quick take on your opinion of:

binkles
luckay
andy
iversonian


if no read thats fine
just trying to see where youre at
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gadarene
slightly wolfy
slightly wolfy
not villagery
no read
This response obviously looks a little suspicious in hindsight. The caveat to reads like this is that of course it can make too much of something that is essentially just a coincidence.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wizard-50
Why are you tunneling me? earlier you quoted one of my posts and said something stupid so i ignored it, and now you're back on me.
nice natural villagery reaction to iversonian's vote

Quote:
Originally Posted by VarianceMinefield
id rather lynch iversonian then noah. i posted some posts from iversonian i felt were really wolfy

asking all these questions that i dont think he cared about or planned to follow up with anything
a very good post

Quote:
Originally Posted by iversonian
I'm usually the first one to go after the guys who don't post, but everyone besides Noah is contributing a fair amount and I don't think we need to risk a mislynch on Noah today. Like vmf said, and I agree, he's a pretty awesome villa.
Here's an example of iversonian defending noah. I do think it's meaningful that at no point did he try to defend anyone else this way. It makes me suspect the other counterwagons were villagers

Quote:
Originally Posted by captain binkles
Using the term mislynch a lot, particularly from a newer player, would be a wolfy tell right? Because it shows that they're thinking about the game in terms of potential mislynches rather than finding wolves right?

Because if so, Iversonian has used the term a lot today.
I quite like that captain begins to suspect iversonian prior to cphoya really pushing him. It's worth a lot of village points

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gadarene
Noah
This is a good vote given it's timing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by captain binkles
Here are some. Some say mislynches, others don't use the term directly but I think are relevant. This also ignores his most recent one I think, as the search function is a bit lagged.
Quote:
Originally Posted by CPHoya
iversonian
Quote:
Originally Posted by captain binkles
So yeah. Iversonian
As I've said before, I doubt there were any wolves CFD'ing iversonian. And in fact the way in which captain builds up to his iversonian vote and his reasoning for it seem very villagery to me, and very unlikely for a wolf to do as a counterwagon to a noah lynch on d1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wizard-50
Gad wagon is donotwant.gif

iversonian has been wolfy the last hour.
a good vote, and of course he was also spewed somewhat by iversonian.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iversonian
This, and what vmf said about playing similarly to how he played his first wolf game.

Here's the occam's razor explanation, folks: It's my 6th game or so, obviously my patterns will be changing even if I'm villa every time. And you should know as well as I that the word mislynch was thrown about a few times earlier. I guess I unconsciously picked up on the verbal mannerisms of the game, I guess.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gadarene
It's pretty strange.

Jim: why are you voting me? Speak slowly, as I am dumb.
I kind of like this post for a fairly oblique reason: We are now starting to see w/w wagons take off, and gadarene doesn't seem to be aware of it. I think for the wolves that fact just overwhelms everything else, and it focuses the attention. The fact that gadarene is not paying attention to it is actually villagery to some degree.



Quote:
Originally Posted by captain binkles
Votes as of post 1024
Night in 00:01

---
VotesLynchVoters
4 iversonian captain binkles (83), CPhoya (74), well named (46), Wizard-50 (35)
4 Noah Aksdal (91), Andynan (23), Gadarene (95), McAvoy (45)
3 CalledDownLight VarianceMinefield (109), iversonian (62), LuckayLuck (40)
2 captain binkles Montecore (34), Sun Tzu (82)
2 VarianceMinefield CalledDownLight (20), Felix the Cat (15)
1 Gadarene JimHalpert (160)
1 not voting Noah (5)

:00 good :01 bad
Quote:
Originally Posted by McAvoy
calleddownlight

revenge baby
My original recollection had been that when mcavoy voted CDL it was a throw-away and so at the time I was just sort of taking it as "mcavoy gonna mcavoy, but looking at the most recent vote count, this vote is by no means a throwaway, and I think it looks pretty bad, even despite the re-noah-snipe. I think it's quite plausible for wolf-mcavoy to have realized that given the wagons were w-w-v that sniping the v was going to be a huge risk

To summarize what I think we learn from d1 EOD

- Huge village points to VMF for multiple reasons, including wolf spew, the iversonian vote, and very good tone in interactions with known wolves

- Good village points to Wizard for wolf spew and a good vote, if slightly less obviously spewed then VMF. Wizard also of course has a good voting history over the whole game that makes me very comfortable with him, but it's good to confirm the prior read

- On the whole, mcavoy's behavior is suspicious, not so much for what he DID do as much as for what he didn't. Early in the day he claimed to have a wolf read on iversonian, yet he basically made no mention of him even though he was clearly reading the thread before night and saw the CFD. His Noah vote was made early before it was clear that noah was going to be a main wagon, was made for a fairly trivial reason (noah sponge), and then he even tried to snipe CDL

- Mixed-ish reviews of gadarene. I think it would be fair to say he isn't as cleared by d1 as VMF or wizard, but nor was he wolfy. I would say it's best to judge gadarene by other factors.

- Montecore is only noteworthy mainly for his absence from doing anything noteworthy
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01-18-2012 , 04:57 PM
Oh duh, I forgot one more

- Substantial villager points to captain for his contributions to the iversonian CFD, and perhaps small debatable village points based on thinking about how iversonian related to him in his posts, which is subtle.

When I began reading d1 I was concerned that perhaps I had cleared captain too easily, but I do think at this point I still feel confident in saying that the people who should not be lynched are myself, VMF, wizard, and captain binkles.
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01-18-2012 , 05:38 PM
Great work well-named, those are some excellent posts and it's good to see some people working today

Gad: Do you still think Wizard hasn't been the same as Pokemon on tone?
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01-18-2012 , 05:40 PM
Votes as of post 3487
Night in 04:21

---
VotesLynchVoters
2 McAvoy well named (6), Montecore (2)
5 not voting captain binkles (1), Gadarene (3), McAvoy (0), VarianceMinefield (0), Wizard-50 (1)
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01-18-2012 , 05:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by captain binkles
Great work well-named, those are some excellent posts and it's good to see some people working today

Gad: Do you still think Wizard hasn't been the same as Pokemon on tone?
No, of course not.
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01-18-2012 , 05:47 PM
Hey guys, I might not be around for EOD, so try not to let McAvoy talk you out of lynching him again, okay?
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01-18-2012 , 05:48 PM
If anyone is around that isn't Well Named (or Gadarene I guess), I'd love it if you spent a few minutes going through this game thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/59...40/index9.html

And briefly scrolling through some of Gadarene's posts, crtl+f '12,7' should do the trick. I did this a little bit last night and have some thoughts about that game compared to this one, but I'd rather not bias your read with my thoughts just yet.

Thanks
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01-18-2012 , 05:48 PM
Well Named: could you link me a recent-ish game you've gone deep-ish in? Aside from Rats.
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01-18-2012 , 05:51 PM
I'm pretty bad at remembering games but give me a few minutes and I'll find my last few games
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01-18-2012 , 05:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gadarene
No, of course not.
Hehe. I had a brief look through some of Wizard's posts last night too. Hopefully this link works (it should show all posts by Wizard in this thread, starting with earliest post he made at the bottom of page 9): http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/se...0&pp=25&page=9

Have a brief skim of some of his posts and let me know what you think. Or if you're feeling lazy I can find some ones I feel may be indicative of his role if you like.

Also, I know you said two days ago if Luckay flipped villa then you'd solve the game yesterday. Now that Luckay flipped villa yesterday is there any chance you'd solve the game today (even though the promise was based around stuff that happened two days ago)?

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01-18-2012 , 05:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by captain binkles
If anyone is around that isn't Well Named (or Gadarene I guess), I'd love it if you spent a few minutes going through this game thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/59...40/index9.html

And briefly scrolling through some of Gadarene's posts, crtl+f '12,7' should do the trick. I did this a little bit last night and have some thoughts about that game compared to this one, but I'd rather not bias your read with my thoughts just yet.

Thanks
in before I post 73 more times imo
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01-18-2012 , 05:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
I'm pretty bad at remembering games but give me a few minutes and I'll find my last few games
Thanks, there's no huge rush
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01-18-2012 , 05:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by captain binkles
Hehe. I had a brief look through some of Wizard's posts last night too. Hopefully this link works (it should show all posts by Wizard in this thread, starting with earliest post he made at the bottom of page 9): http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/se...0&pp=25&page=9

Have a brief skim of some of his posts and let me know what you think. Or if you're feeling lazy I can find some ones I feel may be indicative of his role if you like.

Also, I know you said two days ago if Luckay flipped villa then you'd solve the game yesterday. Now that Luckay flipped villa yesterday is there any chance you'd solve the game today (even though the promise was based around stuff that happened two days ago)?

...I solved the game, man.* I pegged Felix, and McAvoy is the last wolf. Game done be solved.



*Well, everyone else helped.
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01-18-2012 , 05:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gadarene
in before I post 73 more times imo


I missed a few pages of Gadarene-ness because I was originally searching for 12,714 and then you posted once more in the pokemon game or somewhere. It took me a while to work out what was happening
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01-18-2012 , 05:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gadarene
...I solved the game, man.* I pegged Felix, and McAvoy is the last wolf. Game done be solved.



*Well, everyone else helped.
Fair enough. Are you going to take a look at those Wizard posts or would you prefer me to? Or are you so convinced that it's McAvoy that you're not going to spend time on it at all?
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01-18-2012 , 06:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by captain binkles
Fair enough. Are you going to take a look at those Wizard posts or would you prefer me to? Or are you so convinced that it's McAvoy that you're not going to spend time on it at all?
I mean, kind of, yeah. well named's analysis of Mac's posts makes so much sense to me that I don't really think it's +EV to put in additional time exploring alternative scenarios until the circumstances warrant.

I'm lazy sometimes. It's a quality that has been known to tilt upstanding ww citizens such as yourself and Jim.
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