1/12 Apartments Vanilla WW Game
01-18-2012
, 12:50 PM
01-18-2012
, 03:08 PM
01-18-2012
, 03:56 PM
01-18-2012
, 04:55 PM
Assorted d1 stuff:
The main thing I want to say about this is that I think it's slightly more likely for a wolf to make a villager reads list the basis for his own reads list then a co-wolf, and that is worth a point for captain binkles. Additionally, the fact that both felix and iversonian are pushing VMF early is another (somewhat less important than other things) reason to suppose VMF a villager
iversonian pushed back a lot on VMF calling him wolfy which I like also for VMF. These interactions feel very natural.
More village points for VMF
The main thing that struck me about this is that later on when the iversonian wagon occured mcavoy had literally nothing to say about it. He was clearly in the thread for some period of time prior to EOD because he first attempted to snipe CDL, and then re-sniped noah.
In the most interesting part of the day as the wagons were very close between noah, CDL, and VMF, with the iversonian conversation starting, mcavoy didn't have anything to contribute re: iversonian, who he earlier had as a wolf read. This is not good.
More small VMF villager points
This logic is so weird, in that he's really trying to justify mislynching wizard. I think it is village points for wizard
I don't know how to interpret this in any conclusive way, but what stands out to me are that montecore and gad are in the middle, and that captain binkles and mcavoy are not mentioned at all.
Even though captain is on the VMF wagon with two wolves, I kind of like this post for a few reasons
a) From re-reading captain is the only one to really give a more or less plausible explanation for his VMF read that seems villagery
b) It seems somewhat unlikely that 3/4 of the wolf team would vote together given the wagons, although of course it does happen. I value (a) more than (b) here.
I don't understand what this means.
One may wonder why iversonian didn't push captain binkles. In a vacuum this may look suspicious. I think it less so when you recall that previously iversonian called captain villagery and based his reads list on the captain's.
The other thing that ameliorates this suspicion for me is that iversonian put his neck out there quite a bit in a few posts defending noah, but he never did that for captain binkles, despite the fact that it would have been less awkward for him to do so for binkles then for noah. I take that to mean he didn't care if binkles was lynched
This response obviously looks a little suspicious in hindsight. The caveat to reads like this is that of course it can make too much of something that is essentially just a coincidence.
nice natural villagery reaction to iversonian's vote
a very good post
Here's an example of iversonian defending noah. I do think it's meaningful that at no point did he try to defend anyone else this way. It makes me suspect the other counterwagons were villagers
I quite like that captain begins to suspect iversonian prior to cphoya really pushing him. It's worth a lot of village points
This is a good vote given it's timing.
As I've said before, I doubt there were any wolves CFD'ing iversonian. And in fact the way in which captain builds up to his iversonian vote and his reasoning for it seem very villagery to me, and very unlikely for a wolf to do as a counterwagon to a noah lynch on d1
a good vote, and of course he was also spewed somewhat by iversonian.
I kind of like this post for a fairly oblique reason: We are now starting to see w/w wagons take off, and gadarene doesn't seem to be aware of it. I think for the wolves that fact just overwhelms everything else, and it focuses the attention. The fact that gadarene is not paying attention to it is actually villagery to some degree.
My original recollection had been that when mcavoy voted CDL it was a throw-away and so at the time I was just sort of taking it as "mcavoy gonna mcavoy, but looking at the most recent vote count, this vote is by no means a throwaway, and I think it looks pretty bad, even despite the re-noah-snipe. I think it's quite plausible for wolf-mcavoy to have realized that given the wagons were w-w-v that sniping the v was going to be a huge risk
To summarize what I think we learn from d1 EOD
- Huge village points to VMF for multiple reasons, including wolf spew, the iversonian vote, and very good tone in interactions with known wolves
- Good village points to Wizard for wolf spew and a good vote, if slightly less obviously spewed then VMF. Wizard also of course has a good voting history over the whole game that makes me very comfortable with him, but it's good to confirm the prior read
- On the whole, mcavoy's behavior is suspicious, not so much for what he DID do as much as for what he didn't. Early in the day he claimed to have a wolf read on iversonian, yet he basically made no mention of him even though he was clearly reading the thread before night and saw the CFD. His Noah vote was made early before it was clear that noah was going to be a main wagon, was made for a fairly trivial reason (noah sponge), and then he even tried to snipe CDL
- Mixed-ish reviews of gadarene. I think it would be fair to say he isn't as cleared by d1 as VMF or wizard, but nor was he wolfy. I would say it's best to judge gadarene by other factors.
- Montecore is only noteworthy mainly for his absence from doing anything noteworthy
Quote:
I just listened to it and ROFL
blame luckay imo
so VMF cliffs:
VarianceMinefield
blame luckay imo
so VMF cliffs:
- First into the thread
- Waits 10 minutes, then calls Iversonian villa really light
- Does some other stuff I don't quite remember, not really important imo
- Gets onto CPHoya for fluffing, when d1 fluffing is standard, and there's others fluffing as well (JimHalpert, Aksdal)
VarianceMinefield
Quote:
I like binkles' list that he has on #430. I'll feed off that and offer my own. I'll go wolvy to villy.
I find vmf wolfy too. No strong reads for me, but vmf is playing a lot different from his other village play, and I've played with him a lot, actually. I don't want to top off exactly what he's doing differently so that he doesn't correct, if he is in fact wolf.
Jim: So I gather he's the big man on campus. And he's so good he's unreadable, right? Well, I hope his highness isn't offended if lowly me takes a shot.
His probes, trying to elicit a wolf tell, and then 30 posts later saying exactly what he was doing makes no sense as villa, imo. I'm going to follow other people's opinions on this matter, as it seems like a more promising way to understand his behavior.
Felix: My last post on him notwithstanding, I don't like it from a villa standpoint. Unless he was like, "I'm going to make a drunk vid" from the start, it seems like a way of posting massive fluff in one go.
Wizard: This read will develop over time. Not going to make a call based on that turbo.
Aksdal, I can't figure out. I've only played with him in an ongoing game, and he's as inscrutable as a sphynx. He does play the similarly, though.
binkles: I don't understand any of the heat on you from earlier.
Since I put vmf on top, I'll vote him to put some heat on. Raise for info.
I find vmf wolfy too. No strong reads for me, but vmf is playing a lot different from his other village play, and I've played with him a lot, actually. I don't want to top off exactly what he's doing differently so that he doesn't correct, if he is in fact wolf.
Jim: So I gather he's the big man on campus. And he's so good he's unreadable, right? Well, I hope his highness isn't offended if lowly me takes a shot.
His probes, trying to elicit a wolf tell, and then 30 posts later saying exactly what he was doing makes no sense as villa, imo. I'm going to follow other people's opinions on this matter, as it seems like a more promising way to understand his behavior.Felix: My last post on him notwithstanding, I don't like it from a villa standpoint. Unless he was like, "I'm going to make a drunk vid" from the start, it seems like a way of posting massive fluff in one go.
Wizard: This read will develop over time. Not going to make a call based on that turbo.
Aksdal, I can't figure out. I've only played with him in an ongoing game, and he's as inscrutable as a sphynx. He does play the similarly, though.
binkles: I don't understand any of the heat on you from earlier.
Since I put vmf on top, I'll vote him to put some heat on. Raise for info.
Quote:
VMF: I'm here, I'm reading all your stuff. You're right, I remember the actual order of things. My main point still stands, which is that you are very different from your usual villa game. This isn't like some binding vote. I'm just seeing how this develops. Act natural, bro. If you're a villa, you have nothing to worry about. 
Quote:
kind of a weird post he says 6/6 villa (i think)
which at first i thought was a bit weird but then decided it was whatever
but he follows it up with a record of whats happened. that he won the first 4.
it seems weird to say he thinks 6/6 and then confidently say past games.
feels wolfy looking back
which at first i thought was a bit weird but then decided it was whatever
but he follows it up with a record of whats happened. that he won the first 4.
it seems weird to say he thinks 6/6 and then confidently say past games.
feels wolfy looking back
In the most interesting part of the day as the wagons were very close between noah, CDL, and VMF, with the iversonian conversation starting, mcavoy didn't have anything to contribute re: iversonian, who he earlier had as a wolf read. This is not good.
Quote:
If they're easy mislynches and difficult to clear, you would still rather lynch them than someone who is more obvious to tell apart, no? Not sure what we should to to especially accomodate them. It simply means, if this is true, that proper village play will result in their mislynch more often than average, and there's not much you can do about it.
Don't know wizard that well, just making a point on the above logic.
Don't know wizard that well, just making a point on the above logic.
Quote:
Votes as of post 715
Night in 03:00
---
Night in 03:00
---
| Votes | Lynch | Voters |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | captain binkles | VarianceMinefield (72), Montecore (29), Sun Tzu (69) |
| 3 | Noah | Aksdal (73), JimHalpert (129), McAvoy (32) |
| 3 | VarianceMinefield | captain binkles (42), Felix the Cat (15), iversonian (48) |
| 1 | Aksdal | CalledDownLight (12) |
| 1 | Gadarene | LuckayLuck (21) |
| 1 | JimHalpert | well named (26) |
| 1 | LuckayLuck | Gadarene (60) |
| 1 | Sun Tzu | Wizard-50 (23) |
| 3 | not voting | Andynan (8), CPhoya (46), Noah (5) |
Quote:
Let me elaborate on why I think VMF was contradictory here.
1. He thinks I'm a wolf because I talk about easy mislynches and I'm trying to set up Wizard-50 for a lynch.
2. He then says that Binkles/Wizard are w/w. How on earth can I be setting up a 'mislynch' of Wizard if we're both wolves?
3. And it can't be because vmf thought Wizard was wolfy for other reasons, because he has no other reasons.
1. He thinks I'm a wolf because I talk about easy mislynches and I'm trying to set up Wizard-50 for a lynch.
2. He then says that Binkles/Wizard are w/w. How on earth can I be setting up a 'mislynch' of Wizard if we're both wolves?
3. And it can't be because vmf thought Wizard was wolfy for other reasons, because he has no other reasons.
a) From re-reading captain is the only one to really give a more or less plausible explanation for his VMF read that seems villagery
b) It seems somewhat unlikely that 3/4 of the wolf team would vote together given the wagons, although of course it does happen. I value (a) more than (b) here.
The other thing that ameliorates this suspicion for me is that iversonian put his neck out there quite a bit in a few posts defending noah, but he never did that for captain binkles, despite the fact that it would have been less awkward for him to do so for binkles then for noah. I take that to mean he didn't care if binkles was lynched
Quote:
Using the term mislynch a lot, particularly from a newer player, would be a wolfy tell right? Because it shows that they're thinking about the game in terms of potential mislynches rather than finding wolves right?
Because if so, Iversonian has used the term a lot today.
Because if so, Iversonian has used the term a lot today.
This is a good vote given it's timing.
Quote:
This, and what vmf said about playing similarly to how he played his first wolf game.
Here's the occam's razor explanation, folks: It's my 6th game or so, obviously my patterns will be changing even if I'm villa every time. And you should know as well as I that the word mislynch was thrown about a few times earlier. I guess I unconsciously picked up on the verbal mannerisms of the game, I guess.
Here's the occam's razor explanation, folks: It's my 6th game or so, obviously my patterns will be changing even if I'm villa every time. And you should know as well as I that the word mislynch was thrown about a few times earlier. I guess I unconsciously picked up on the verbal mannerisms of the game, I guess.
Quote:
Votes as of post 1024
Night in 00:01
---
:00 good :01 bad
Night in 00:01
---
| Votes | Lynch | Voters |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | iversonian | captain binkles (83), CPhoya (74), well named (46), Wizard-50 (35) |
| 4 | Noah | Aksdal (91), Andynan (23), Gadarene (95), McAvoy (45) |
| 3 | CalledDownLight | VarianceMinefield (109), iversonian (62), LuckayLuck (40) |
| 2 | captain binkles | Montecore (34), Sun Tzu (82) |
| 2 | VarianceMinefield | CalledDownLight (20), Felix the Cat (15) |
| 1 | Gadarene | JimHalpert (160) |
| 1 | not voting | Noah (5) |
:00 good :01 bad
To summarize what I think we learn from d1 EOD
- Huge village points to VMF for multiple reasons, including wolf spew, the iversonian vote, and very good tone in interactions with known wolves
- Good village points to Wizard for wolf spew and a good vote, if slightly less obviously spewed then VMF. Wizard also of course has a good voting history over the whole game that makes me very comfortable with him, but it's good to confirm the prior read
- On the whole, mcavoy's behavior is suspicious, not so much for what he DID do as much as for what he didn't. Early in the day he claimed to have a wolf read on iversonian, yet he basically made no mention of him even though he was clearly reading the thread before night and saw the CFD. His Noah vote was made early before it was clear that noah was going to be a main wagon, was made for a fairly trivial reason (noah sponge), and then he even tried to snipe CDL
- Mixed-ish reviews of gadarene. I think it would be fair to say he isn't as cleared by d1 as VMF or wizard, but nor was he wolfy. I would say it's best to judge gadarene by other factors.
- Montecore is only noteworthy mainly for his absence from doing anything noteworthy
01-18-2012
, 04:57 PM
01-18-2012
, 05:38 PM
Great work well-named, those are some excellent posts and it's good to see some people working today
Gad: Do you still think Wizard hasn't been the same as Pokemon on tone?
Gad: Do you still think Wizard hasn't been the same as Pokemon on tone?
01-18-2012
, 05:48 PM
If anyone is around that isn't Well Named (or Gadarene I guess), I'd love it if you spent a few minutes going through this game thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/59...40/index9.html
And briefly scrolling through some of Gadarene's posts, crtl+f '12,7' should do the trick. I did this a little bit last night and have some thoughts about that game compared to this one, but I'd rather not bias your read with my thoughts just yet.
Thanks
And briefly scrolling through some of Gadarene's posts, crtl+f '12,7' should do the trick. I did this a little bit last night and have some thoughts about that game compared to this one, but I'd rather not bias your read with my thoughts just yet.
Thanks
01-18-2012
, 05:48 PM
01-18-2012
, 05:51 PM
01-18-2012
, 05:54 PM
Hehe. I had a brief look through some of Wizard's posts last night too. Hopefully this link works (it should show all posts by Wizard in this thread, starting with earliest post he made at the bottom of page 9): http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/se...0&pp=25&page=9
Have a brief skim of some of his posts and let me know what you think. Or if you're feeling lazy I can find some ones I feel may be indicative of his role if you like.
Also, I know you said two days ago if Luckay flipped villa then you'd solve the game yesterday. Now that Luckay flipped villa yesterday is there any chance you'd solve the game today (even though the promise was based around stuff that happened two days ago)?
Have a brief skim of some of his posts and let me know what you think. Or if you're feeling lazy I can find some ones I feel may be indicative of his role if you like.
Also, I know you said two days ago if Luckay flipped villa then you'd solve the game yesterday. Now that Luckay flipped villa yesterday is there any chance you'd solve the game today (even though the promise was based around stuff that happened two days ago)?
01-18-2012
, 05:54 PM
Quote:
If anyone is around that isn't Well Named (or Gadarene I guess), I'd love it if you spent a few minutes going through this game thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/59...40/index9.html
And briefly scrolling through some of Gadarene's posts, crtl+f '12,7' should do the trick. I did this a little bit last night and have some thoughts about that game compared to this one, but I'd rather not bias your read with my thoughts just yet.
Thanks
And briefly scrolling through some of Gadarene's posts, crtl+f '12,7' should do the trick. I did this a little bit last night and have some thoughts about that game compared to this one, but I'd rather not bias your read with my thoughts just yet.
Thanks
01-18-2012
, 05:54 PM
01-18-2012
, 05:56 PM
Quote:
Hehe. I had a brief look through some of Wizard's posts last night too. Hopefully this link works (it should show all posts by Wizard in this thread, starting with earliest post he made at the bottom of page 9): http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/se...0&pp=25&page=9
Have a brief skim of some of his posts and let me know what you think. Or if you're feeling lazy I can find some ones I feel may be indicative of his role if you like.
Also, I know you said two days ago if Luckay flipped villa then you'd solve the game yesterday. Now that Luckay flipped villa yesterday is there any chance you'd solve the game today (even though the promise was based around stuff that happened two days ago)?
Have a brief skim of some of his posts and let me know what you think. Or if you're feeling lazy I can find some ones I feel may be indicative of his role if you like.
Also, I know you said two days ago if Luckay flipped villa then you'd solve the game yesterday. Now that Luckay flipped villa yesterday is there any chance you'd solve the game today (even though the promise was based around stuff that happened two days ago)?
I pegged Felix, and McAvoy is the last wolf. Game done be solved.*Well, everyone else helped.
01-18-2012
, 05:57 PM
I missed a few pages of Gadarene-ness because I was originally searching for 12,714 and then you posted once more in the pokemon game or somewhere. It took me a while to work out what was happening
01-18-2012
, 05:59 PM
Fair enough. Are you going to take a look at those Wizard posts or would you prefer me to? Or are you so convinced that it's McAvoy that you're not going to spend time on it at all?
01-18-2012
, 06:03 PM
I'm lazy sometimes.
It's a quality that has been known to tilt upstanding ww citizens such as yourself and Jim.