Kelly Perdew, CEO of Rotohog.com made this statement during an interview a couple weeks ago on This Week in Startups. His company provides a lot of "gamblized fantasy solutions" for fantasy sports sites, horse racing sites, stuff like that, which is where his knowledge on the issue come from.

So it would be similar to the France law he believes. A few license holders in each state, they'll go for a whole lot of money, and there's a lot of people competing for those.

You can watch it here, but the interesting part is in the 24-28 minute mark.

Thanks for the wonderful link. Keep up the good work.

Death of online poker in America if that is the route taken

I don't see that happening within a year.

Pretty much what I've been saying. If we don't get a federal bill passed, in short order we will get in most states one of these three:

1. Intrastate iPoker legislation which is protectionist for a few in-state enterprises;

2. Intrastate iPoker available only from the state-run lottery;

3. A legal ban on iPoker.

All three will likely criminalize unlicensed play.

I predict #1 will be passed in at least 2 states next year. Within 4 years, I expect we will have one of the three in the majority of the states.

PokerXanadu, your assestment is spot on.

1 and 2 still need players to make it profitable. I can not be forced to play and if the sites are not competitive, they will not get any rake.
3. The gov't still can not catch internet kiddie porn, which is vile and disgusting. What makes you think that they can stop poker?

While it is true that they can try to interfere with payment processing, there are many holes in their ability to be effective. On the other hand, they just need to dampen the market sufficiently to have an effect. So far, they have not been that effective.

PX, this is why the decision of the Supreme Court of Washington in the Rousso case galls me so much. Now, some states may follow France's lead, like CA has considered. Then, you will have multiple lawsuits like the Rousso one. This is why I am sure that SCOTUS will accept certiorari in the Rousso case.

However, due to the absurd ruling in the Rousso case, some states will pass protectionist laws and more money will be invested in needless lawsuits. All this type of activity eats up capital that could be used to employ people. If the Court in the Rousso case had followed SCOTUS precedent and invalidated its state ban on online gambling, then the other states would know that they can't pass protectionist laws. So not only would useless lawsuits be avoided, but the states might pass laws legalizing online poker for all firms so they could tax it.

can't wait

Two things: advancing technology and the UIGEA. Once state laws are passed that clearly make unlicensed iPoker unlawful, there will be no more question as to the applicability of the UIGEA. The status quo won't remain.

Actually, they have already been quite effective. What happened to bonus whoring, fishy tables, et al? There are currently only five US-facing iPoker sites left with player traffic worth mentioning.

It's warming to say that we can still easily play iPoker, but there are a ton of players who no longer say that. You just don't happen to be one of those that didn't stick it out, because you are informed and willing to go through the extra hoops and hoopla that is required today to keep playing. A few more hundreds of millions of dollars seized by the feds, a few more payment processors arrested and shut down, a bunch more states passing laws that outlaw offshore iPoker... Put on your glasses, son, and take a look at what is written on the wall.

I am not generally a doom and gloom sort of guy, but I don't back off from reality either. My main hope is that enough players take off their rose-colored glasses and come aboard the crusade we have now to get the federal bills passed this year. It's our very best shot at the rosy future we want for iPoker.

It seems likely that 1 and/or 2 is likely to happen in a few states before Congress get around to passing federal legislation. Everyday it becomes less likely that federal legislation is going to pass this year. Some states are going to act sooner or later if Congress keeps dragging their feet on this issue.

Thats the thing, Federal legislation isnt happening this year so Im not sure where that leaves us.

I think one thing that we would have going for us is the possibility of inter-state poker between states with histories of legalized gambling. I doubt it would be quick, but think of how many states you can play Power Ball or Mega Millions lotto? It would have to start as intra state online poker. Something I think NJ and CA are going to be spearheading in the very near future.

Larger states with histories of gaming like IL, NJ, CA, and NY will likely stick it out alone for a while, but the smaller states like CT, NV, and MS will probably quickly find a larger partner state and start the early compacts. I think PA and MA could go either way, sticking it out alone or being an anchor for an early interstate compact.

Easily I could see a Western block (CA+NV centered) and an Eastern block(Philly+DC+NYC+Boston metro areas). Both of these areas could easily sustain a few competing sites. What would be the death knell would be for a monopoly to be granted in a given area, which given the recent table gaming expansion in PA and the ipoker laws in France, doesn't seem to be the way anyone is going.

In any event, it would probably start under the banners of the larger gaming companies (Harrah's or GTech) and the more experienced Indian tribes (the Mohegan tribe of CT). Either way, without federal legislation I don't see FTP, Party, or Stars moving stateside anytime soon.

Intra-state iPoker is specifically exempted from the UIGEA; inter-state iPoker is not. Maybe the states can get away with it, maybe not. So far, the DOJ has not allowed it.

Right, and if we go with the Morongo tribe model, we'll be the next France

I don't agree. A loud and vocal minority can weild a great deal of veto power. The FoF types have been relatively quiet so far because an IPoker enabling bill hasn't come close to passing yet. If ever it does, we will see the fury of Joshua come from their ranks.

If I am right, then maybe we can send them money. Talk about strange bedfellows.


Just curious - which two do you think?

CA & NJ.

My gut tells me that despite what I want; a full repeal of UIGEA and Federal regulation. What will happen is a slow and painful grind up the mega-millions/powerball ladder. Arguments about player pools and high rake do not hold water unless someone tries the model first. All it will take is one state to do it and iPoker can start down the road to legitimacy and profitability. It is already happening in the EU one country at a time.