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Originally Posted by Rich Muny
If PS gets into CA, it will be with a good amount of tribal support. If they don't, the rejection will be over the objections of those tribes.
This is 100% point of view
It's just as true to say If PS gets into CA, it will be over the objections of a good amount of tribes, and if they don't it will be with a good amount of tribal support.
So this is the problem. You are making a conscious choice to take the Pokerstars position, knowing full well it is futile. This means the process goes on and on.
See, Pokerstars has nothing to lose waiting another two years. Nothing changes for them, they still have a vast revenue stream in other markets. Pechanga has nothing to lose either, online poker would be a nice new revenue stream (assuming Pokerstars wasn't in there dominating the market), but they make quite a bit without it.
Meanwhile, the players are left out of the equation entirely.
This amendment really looks like a Hail Mary from Gray. He sees that the Pechanga coalition won't give in, so why not appease them and see what the other side will do?
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However, the other side (the PS coalition) is the stronger of the two. Even if they were inclined to go along with such a change, it's hard to see them deciding they need to get rushed into it with two weeks to go and no alternate partner in place (and who knows what kind of contract they have with PS). Keep in mind that the 5 year ban applies to their partners as well, so long as they stick with PS.
We disagree which is the stronger coalition, but that is fine. But at some point, those partners are going to recognize the futility of fighting for Pokerstars. They could choose to move forward in another direction.
I don't think their CA partners are as wedded to Pokerstars as the PPA appears to be
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The only real hope, IMO, is that both coalitions see that, with the supermajority requirement for this legislation, it can't pass unless they come to consensus. There really is consensus to be had if they'd work to make it happen.
There is no consensus. What you seem to be looking for as consensus is actually concession by the other side.
Another form of consensus would be for Pokerstars to accept the five year wait, get the clock running, let the market open for CA players, and move on to lobbying in the next state