Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobo Fett
I'd like to understand this issue better. Is this common/normal operating procedure for handicapping services? Why is it such a problem?
I have no particular knowledge of the RAS situation specifically, but a fair amount of the general issue:
If a tout is playing his picks before giving them out, the line will tend to move by the time they come out in a way that is unfavorable to the bettor who paid for the service. You could argue that this is sort of OK if the tout reasonably believes his picks will still be +EV even after those line movements, but the counterargument is that those who have paid for the service reasonably expect that the service will not be working against them, which is literally what the tout's own bets will be doing to the extent (which is significant in the WNBA) that the bets move the line. Moreover, given the edges that are available in most sports, it's pretty likely that any line movement will obviate any edge the tout might have.
If a tout is free to play the sold picks
after giving them out, he will probably be tempted to, at least occasionally (and, as TC points out, all the time once he's decided to burn his business), give out picks that are coin flips or even backwards relative to his own views. The customers playing his picks will move the line; he can then take advantage of the improved (from his perspective) lines by going the opposite way from what he advised.
These techniques will be
much more a problem in a market like WNBA than NBA or NFL, because the lines will respond to much smaller action.
From what i just read (not a lot, and I'm assuming TC summed it up fairly), RAS has not promised not to do these things. Assuming this is correct there is more here than just a business that cheated customers in the past; there's one that has cheated customers in the past, promised it won't cheat in that particular way again, but left open other possible ways to cheat them. (All of which is a little odd when you consider that they might as well just go ahead and say they won't do it, whether they're going to or not.)
Last edited by atakdog; 05-30-2010 at 12:26 AM.