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Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins.

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Old 01-12-2007, 09:23 PM   #1
Nate.
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Week-long prop bet

I have one week to turn $5 on PokerStars into $1000. No freerolls, just me on the account, no friends dumping to me, nothing sly or underhanded.

Currently at $5.22. Began at 8 PM EST.

--Nate
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Old 01-12-2007, 09:55 PM   #2
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Re: Week-long prop bet

hopefully you will lose
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Old 01-12-2007, 09:57 PM   #3
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Re: Week-long prop bet

wow can i get in on the bet that you will lose?
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Old 01-12-2007, 09:57 PM   #4
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Re: Week-long prop bet

Quote:
hopefully you will lose
and hopefully you will be banned
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Old 01-12-2007, 09:58 PM   #5
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Re: Week-long prop bet

Quote:
Quote:
hopefully you will lose
and hopefully you will be banned
QFT


Good luck sir. SNGs permitted? I figure it can't be too hard once you get to ~150$.
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Old 01-12-2007, 09:58 PM   #6
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Re: Week-long prop bet

Well, I'm down to $4.19, so it might not take long for you to get your wish.

--Nate
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Old 01-12-2007, 10:00 PM   #7
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Re: Week-long prop bet

it was my dying wish..
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Old 01-12-2007, 10:00 PM   #8
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Re: Week-long prop bet

Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
hopefully you will lose
and hopefully you will be banned
QFT


Good luck sir. SNGs permitted? I figure it can't be too hard once you get to ~150$.
Thanks.

Yup, SNGs are allowed. Big part of my plan. First I have to stop running so bad at $.02/$.04.

--Nate
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Old 01-12-2007, 10:02 PM   #9
DanFred2010
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Re: Week-long prop bet

MARTINGALE
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Old 01-12-2007, 10:05 PM   #10
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Re: Week-long prop bet

ive been discussing a potential prop bet with a few of my friends. it basically is centered around playing hu 5$ hu nlhe sng's. how many out of 100 is a fair line?

also, one of my friends believes he can win over 75/100 hu plo8 5$sng on stars.

anyhow, good luck nate!
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Old 01-12-2007, 10:05 PM   #11
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Re: Week-long prop bet

Quote:
wow can i get in on the bet that you will lose?
I think I have all the action I'm comfortable with for now.

BTW, this hand was funny.

PokerStars Game #7904241617: Omaha Hi/Lo Limit ($0.02/$0.04) - 2007/01/12 - 20:42:46 (ET)
Table 'Adria' 10-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: GrnBttdSkunk ($0.76 in chips)
Seat 2: 5oclockclub ($0.69 in chips)
Seat 3: auntie pete ($1 in chips)
Seat 4: luckynuts1 ($0.38 in chips)
Seat 5: harrison42 ($0.96 in chips)
Seat 6: Mortal Limit ($0.16 in chips)
Seat 7: Speargun ($0.40 in chips)
Seat 8: phungus ($1.57 in chips)
Seat 9: henk63 ($0.41 in chips)
Seat 10: network_man ($0.74 in chips)
auntie pete: posts small blind $0.01
luckynuts1: posts big blind $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mortal Limit [Ac Td Ad 5s]
harrison42: calls $0.02
Mortal Limit: raises $0.02 to $0.04
Speargun: folds
phungus: folds
henk63: folds
network_man: folds
GrnBttdSkunk: folds
5oclockclub: folds
auntie pete: calls $0.03
luckynuts1: folds
harrison42: calls $0.02
*** FLOP *** [5d 2s 4s]
auntie pete: checks
harrison42: bets $0.02
Mortal Limit: calls $0.02
auntie pete: calls $0.02
*** TURN *** [5d 2s 4s] [Qd]
auntie pete: checks
harrison42: bets $0.04
Mortal Limit: calls $0.04
auntie pete: calls $0.04
*** RIVER *** [5d 2s 4s Qd] [As]
auntie pete: checks
harrison42: bets $0.04
Mortal Limit: folds
auntie pete: calls $0.04
*** SHOW DOWN ***
harrison42: shows [6c 4d 7s 2d] (HI: two pair, Fours and Deuces; LO: 6,5,4,2,A)
auntie pete: mucks hand
harrison42 collected $0.20 from pot
harrison42 collected $0.19 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $0.40 | Rake $0.01
Board [5d 2s 4s Qd As]
Seat 1: GrnBttdSkunk folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: 5oclockclub (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: auntie pete (small blind) mucked [8s Kh Kd Kc]
Seat 4: luckynuts1 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: harrison42 showed [6c 4d 7s 2d] and won ($0.39) with HI: two pair, Fours and Deuces; LO: 6,5,4,2,A
Seat 6: Mortal Limit folded on the River
Seat 7: Speargun folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: phungus folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: henk63 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 10: network_man folded before Flop (didn't bet)

--Nate
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Old 01-12-2007, 10:06 PM   #12
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Re: Week-long prop bet

If you looking for more action, i'll take a small bet of my $250 to your $200 that you dont do it, seeing as tho you lost 1/6th your BR already.
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Old 01-12-2007, 10:07 PM   #13
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Re: Week-long prop bet

Quote:
If you looking for more action, i'll take a small bet of my $250 to your $200 that you dont do it, seeing as tho you lost 1/6th your BR already.
Thanks, but I'm not comfortable taking more action on this right now.

--Nate
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Old 01-12-2007, 10:10 PM   #14
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Re: Week-long prop bet

Quote:
ive been discussing a potential prop bet with a few of my friends. it basically is centered around playing hu 5$ hu nlhe sng's. how many out of 100 is a fair line?

also, one of my friends believes he can win over 75/100 hu plo8 5$sng on stars.

anyhow, good luck nate!
Thanks.

BTW, If your friend is good and adjusts I think he's a favorite to win >75 of them. For a while I was running at approximately that clip at higher stakes. Admittedly small sample, but I also knew less about HU PLO8 than I do now.

--Nate
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Old 01-12-2007, 10:30 PM   #15
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Re: Week-long prop bet

care to share what kind of odds you have on the bet?
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Old 01-12-2007, 10:31 PM   #16
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Re: Week-long prop bet

Quote:
care to share what kind of odds you have on the bet?
Even money.

--Nate
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Old 01-12-2007, 10:48 PM   #17
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Re: Week-long prop bet

couldnt u have gotten more than even money? starting with only 5 bucks there is a pretty high shot of busto... if it was like 20 or something like that i can see even money.
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Old 01-12-2007, 10:48 PM   #18
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Re: Week-long prop bet

Quote:
Quote:
ive been discussing a potential prop bet with a few of my friends. it basically is centered around playing hu 5$ hu nlhe sng's. how many out of 100 is a fair line?

also, one of my friends believes he can win over 75/100 hu plo8 5$sng on stars.

anyhow, good luck nate!
Thanks.

BTW, If your friend is good and adjusts I think he's a favorite to win >75 of them. For a while I was running at approximately that clip at higher stakes. Admittedly small sample, but I also knew less about HU PLO8 than I do now.

--Nate
I would go as far as saying and half decent SNGer should win over 70% at $5, if the few occasions I have played them are anything to go by the play is just laughable- and I suck
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Old 01-12-2007, 11:00 PM   #19
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Re: Week-long prop bet

Update:

Down to $2.15.

Hail Mary: 2-tabling $1 NL.

--Nate
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Old 01-12-2007, 11:00 PM   #20
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Re: Week-long prop bet

Quote:
Quote:
hopefully you will lose
and hopefully you will be banned
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Old 01-12-2007, 11:42 PM   #21
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Re: Week-long prop bet

for some motivation. The first time i bought on a poker site I bought in 50 dollars. I got down to 78 cents and made it up all the way to 16,000 from that low point just playing real smart. It can happen, just will your mind and you might be able to do it.
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Old 01-12-2007, 11:55 PM   #22
Nate.
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Re: Week-long prop bet

Quote:
for some motivation. The first time i bought on a poker site I bought in 50 dollars. I got down to 78 cents and made it up all the way to 16,000 from that low point just playing real smart. It can happen, just will your mind and you might be able to do it.
Motivation successful. Back to $5.22.

--Nate
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Old 01-12-2007, 11:56 PM   #23
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Re: Week-long prop bet

change your avatar.
we all know Elway can't win the big one on his first try.
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Old 01-13-2007, 12:10 AM   #24
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Re: Week-long prop bet

thats true. go with favre.

updates?
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Old 01-13-2007, 12:13 AM   #25
Nate.
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Re: Week-long prop bet

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thats true. go with favre.

updates?
$4.25. Four-tabling $1NL.

--Nate
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