Variance Simulator - Page 2 - Poker Beats Brags and Variance

Maven, great little program and I appreciate you taking the time to make it. I had a quick question, though. The SD/100 stat you told to pull for PT3 from their website lists the standard deviation in BB/100 hands. For your simulator, would you then have to convert this number to $/100 like you simulator suggests. For example:

SD/100 of 25 from PT3
Divide it by 2 for PTBB, then multiply it by stakes (lets assume 100NL), so 1 as the big blind. Thus a $/100 SD of 12.5? Or leave it at 25 for BB/100?

Thanks for your help...

I only have HM :/

but from HM, if i have SD=25BB/100 -> 50 bigBlind/100 -> 50$/100 (100NL)

1PTBB = 1BigBet = 2BigBlind

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07-17-2009 , 12:09 PM

#28

Charito

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 280

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nichlemn

Could you make an MTT applet? Not that I play them, but they probably have the most variance of any form of poker. Obviously any losing player can be a winner lifetime with a huge score but it'd be interesting to see what sort of long term upswings are possible for losers and downswings possible for winners.

btw if you make a mtt applet, remember that outcomes are not gaussian, and don't try to apply the central limit theorem.

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07-17-2009 , 12:12 PM

#29

mug3n

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 2,746

Quote:

Originally Posted by _ maven _

I only have HM :/

but from HM, if i have SD=25BB/100 -> 50 bigBlind/100 -> 50$/100 (100NL)

1PTBB = 1BigBet = 2BigBlind

in hem the bb numbers are big blinds, not big bets.

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07-17-2009 , 12:17 PM

#30

zgpwns

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 547

can someone explain to me what SD actually is ?

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07-17-2009 , 12:18 PM

#31

Charito

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 280

Quote:

Originally Posted by zgpwns

can someone explain to me what SD actually is ?

stfw

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07-17-2009 , 12:23 PM

#32

_ maven _

enthusiast

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 99

Quote:

Originally Posted by mug3n

in hem the bb numbers are big blinds, not big bets.

you can have both in the "report" Tab.

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07-17-2009 , 02:23 PM

#33

Tommy2Ace

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 263

bien cool maven, c'est tres artistique

very cool maven, it's very artistic

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07-18-2009 , 08:40 PM

#34

bored

adept

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 968

Quote:

Originally Posted by _ maven _

yes I can

-> 100 players
-> Bankroll management : 20 Buyins
-> if (BR==0) : stop
-> start @ 25NL (max=800NL)
->winrate= 2 BB/100
-> SD=50BB/100
-> 1 million hands

More fun :

-> 1000 players
-> Bankroll management : 1 Buyin
-> if (BR==0) : stop
-> start @ 25NL (max=200/400)
-> winrate= 2 BB/100
-> SD=50BB/100
-> 100000 hands

Your simulator is pretty interesting as it is, but is there any way we could input bankroll management and starting lv in ourselves?

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07-18-2009 , 08:49 PM

#35

snagglepuss

banned

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 7,269

nice program maven, appreciated

adding more user control for more complex simulations would be cool too, but regardless nice

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07-18-2009 , 09:28 PM

#36

Le Alexandre

adept

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 756

Very cool,, but how did you come up with the standard deviation at 50BB/100?

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07-18-2009 , 11:57 PM

#37

GDl2

centurion

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 127

Quote:

Originally Posted by bored

Your simulator is pretty interesting as it is, but is there any way we could input bankroll management and starting lv in ourselves?

this

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07-19-2009 , 12:06 AM

#38

barrnick

stranger

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 13

variance simulator

Quote

07-19-2009 , 12:08 AM

#39

Nichlemn

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 9,478

I agree, it'd be pretty interesting to see how many "Omaheaters" we could expect from a population.

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07-19-2009 , 12:15 AM

#40

lnternet

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 12,224

I know of 3 progs that do like exactly this..

but hey every new implementation has its own ups

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07-19-2009 , 12:38 AM

#41

JohnnyFondue

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 17,793

Sick sick program ty ty

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07-19-2009 , 01:26 AM

#42

2slick

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 1,592

ok, so what this proves is that there is going to be some people who do in fact, win more money than others over a million hand stretch........even though they have the same win rates.

correct?

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07-19-2009 , 01:30 AM

#43

2slick

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 1,592

ok, so in pot limit omaha, is the swings wilder because people's winrates are not as big as they think?

i hear of players with very decent win rates but maybe they are fooling themselves and the nature of the game takes more hands compared to nl holdem to establish a true win rate?

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07-19-2009 , 04:50 AM

#44

JimmyRare

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,752

I see that the winrate is in $/100, does this actually mean ptbb/100?

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07-19-2009 , 05:07 AM

#45

Jurrr

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 4,736

What's your SD? Mine is 112 bb (big blinds).

Last edited by Jurrr; 07-19-2009 at 05:22 AM.

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07-19-2009 , 05:19 AM

#46

blackaces24

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 121

when i click on the link, I only get a blank page. What do I have to download to make it work?

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07-19-2009 , 05:38 AM

#47

dragonystic

banned

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 5,207

Quote

07-19-2009 , 05:39 AM

#48

dragonystic

banned

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 5,207

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jurrr

What's your SD? Mine is 112 bb (big blinds).

not to carry on about this...but variance is atleast a part of the reason that the game will always be profitable. some % of bad players will run good, think they are better than they are...only to eventually lose out to the better players. this is an unending cycle.