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Is this variance or i am just a breakeven player? Is this variance or i am just a breakeven player?

08-22-2022 , 03:36 AM
So this is NL 10. Should i consider move up to 25 NL with this graph? I am very concerned with the downsings which may not be downsings after all and i am just a breakeven player. Bankroll 800$

The pictures shows my last 120k hands and my biggest upswing/downsing while playing this hands.



Last edited by adastraperaspera; 08-22-2022 at 03:48 AM.
Is this variance or i am just a breakeven player? Quote
08-22-2022 , 05:45 AM
You are breakeven player, wouldn't move up with 30 Buyins considering you're not crushing your current stake
Is this variance or i am just a breakeven player? Quote
08-22-2022 , 07:42 AM
Is this variance or i am just a breakeven player? Quote
08-22-2022 , 07:54 AM
I would be very sad! And you are not helping at all.

Last edited by adastraperaspera; 08-22-2022 at 08:02 AM.
Is this variance or i am just a breakeven player? Quote
08-22-2022 , 09:01 AM
No point in moving up, when you are basically only breakeven over more than 120k hands. Its not even like, your results have been better lately, since the peak was reached after 35k hands. Instead you should work on improving your game or maybe your game selection. If you play fast fold tables, try the regular ones. If you play 6-max, try full ring, if its available. Try another poker site or play at a different time of the day. Or go the tournament way, if you are ready for something completely different.
Is this variance or i am just a breakeven player? Quote
08-22-2022 , 11:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fundiver199
No point in moving up, when you are basically only breakeven over more than 120k hands. Its not even like, your results have been better lately, since the peak was reached after 35k hands. Instead you should work on improving your game or maybe your game selection. If you play fast fold tables, try the regular ones. If you play 6-max, try full ring, if its available. Try another poker site or play at a different time of the day. Or go the tournament way, if you are ready for something completely different.
I am focusing on improving my game. I play zoom in Pokerstars 6 max. So basically i will stick to 10NL until crushing it. But what we mean by crushing it. I have 3,23 BB/100 in my last 50k hands and i am obviously not crushing it. If let's say 5 BB/100 is the treshold of a solid winning player and 100k hands is a decent sample if you have 5BB/100 in 100k you are crushing it?

With 4BB/100 in 150k hands is safer to say that you are winning the stake than with 9BB/100 in 40k hands? Or it also depends on how you got to the 4BB/100 in 150k. If you are making constantly new peaks or you are going sideways like me?
Is this variance or i am just a breakeven player? Quote
08-22-2022 , 11:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adastraperaspera
I play zoom in Pokerstars 6 max.
I dought anyone can do much better than breakeven in this format given the rake, so my choise would be to play another format or at least try another site. Zoom games on PokerStars are so reg infested, its not even funny
Is this variance or i am just a breakeven player? Quote
08-22-2022 , 11:41 AM
Hm, i didn't know that. Maybe i will try ACR i don't know.
Is this variance or i am just a breakeven player? Quote
08-23-2022 , 01:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adastraperaspera
Hm, i didn't know that. Maybe i will try ACR i don't know.
Right now the 10NL Zoom table on Stars is playing with 17% players per flop, which is actually a high number for Stars. But the 10NL Blitz table on ACR is playing with around 25% players per flop, which does indicate a significantly looser and therefore softer game. So if you insist on playing fast fold cash games, it might be worth giving ACR a try and see, if you can do better there over 100k hands. Personally I gave up Zoom years ago, because I was doing way better on regular tables. But of course it is important to be aware of the effects of variance.

You started out with a big upswing over the first 35k hands, which might have made you think, you were crushing the game, but then reality set in over the next 40k hands. And it might as well have been the other way around, so you are kind of lucky, you have never been significantly in the red. My 10NL Zoom graph looks pretty much like your 35k-75k sample (top picture), and I think, I gave up after 27k hands or so. But who know. Maybe I was also a close to break-even player, who just started out with a downswing. My 5NL Zoom graph looks much more like your 10NL graph starting out with a big upswing and then giving back most of the winnings later.

For me though I just kind of decided, that fast forward cash games are not the format, I am going to play. I think, its to difficult to find significant edge, when you cant table select or get a proper read on opponents. And the format also tend to help bad players fix their biggest leak, which is playing to many bad hands especially from early position. According to my PT4 database there is way more limping on regular tables than similar stake Zoom tables, and these whales are, where a lot of the easy profit comes from.

After giving up Zoom I tried 888 Poker but found, that cash games there were not significantly softer than on Stars, and after that I moved to tournaments and have only played a minimal amount of cash games since. I find, that online MTTs is the format, where there is most money to be made, and the only drawback is the time committment and ever larger variance. But SnGs can be a solution to that, even though your ROI is always going to be lower compared to MTTs, and the upside potential is more limited.
Is this variance or i am just a breakeven player? Quote
08-23-2022 , 01:52 PM
As far i understood you are up a little bit. Should stick to 100 buy ins and play 10 x)
Is this variance or i am just a breakeven player? Quote

      
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