A couple months ago I got really into poker and decided to start pursuing it as a hobby and I treated it very serious. Since starting poker some months ago and downloading pokertracker and tracking all my hands and stats I am over 20 buyins below EV (25NL) in my first 30,000 hands online and that’s not even counting live playing 1/2. I’ve lost all the biggest pots I’ve ever played both online and live to one outers or four outers. Almost every single time. I have my graph from poker tracker if anyone wants to give me some advice or see evidence. I’m just so confused how someone can be this unlucky, I know I’m not the best but I study so hard and use all my free time learning about the game just to get one outed and dug further in the whole of being below EV (I’m in college with no job at the moment). Only once have I sucked out on an opponent when behind over 30,000 hands and I can’t even count the amount of times I’ve been one outed. I would estimate I am also another 5 buyins below EV playing live poker and I’ve tracked all my sessions. Anyways I guess I’m just ranting. It’s literally my dream to just have one good session and win more than a few buyins but it has never happened. How is it even possible to be down over 20 buyins in EV over 30,000 hand sample that’s completely insane. On the overall luck bell curve my sets are at Very Unlucky and when I do flip a set I lose anyways. All my leaktracker stats are in the green and I’m winning money overall in all in Ev. I really just need advice or encouragement to continue this because it’s been a brutal start to the journey.

Forgot to mention how in the biggest spot of my life chip leading at a tournament final table I had my aces cracked back to back by ace jack off then kings �� one hand right after the other to knock me out.

It’s 30k hands bro, extremely small sample size. Post some hands. You’re probably not playing as well as you think if you just started playing.

Poker is ****ing brutal. Play long enough and eventually u get 50-100k losing stretches even when u're accomplished and proven winner at your games.

Yes, please post your graph. Also, I assure you you aren’t losing only to long shot suck outs. They just stand out in your mind. I guarantee you have some glaring leaks you need to plug.

20 buy ins below EV is bad? Prepare your @ss hole.

Lol well I hope it gets better before it gets worse. Only seen a couple posts with a small sample size that were this far below EV. I’ll upload my graph tomorrow because I played a couple thousand hands of zoom and they haven’t been added yet. My leaktracker statistics show that every single stat is in the green except for river aggression from middle position. Anyways yeah not all of what I’ve lost is from suck outs but it’s the majority of what I have lost. My graph all in EV is positive so in theory I should be profiting even with this run bad. If you want to know what the hands are like here’s one from zoom last night. I 3 bet in middle position with kings get two callers k55 turn A, utg jams the turn I call. River 5. villain shows 10 5 offsuit. I’m not one to complain about bad beats I never rage or tilt I really don’t care. I’m honestly just confused with what’s going on since this seems to happen to me quite literally every single session I play. You can see from my graph my all in EV has never once gone up not even for one session every session it gets lower and lower so I don’t get how tf I’m supposed to make any money like this. I know I sound ****ing stupid but it ****s with my head just because I feel like the unluckiest mf in the world. I know I need a larger sample size just impossible to keep up the motivation when you are hundreds under EV

How would you go about analyzing leaks in your game? The problem I see with how I play is that my redline has been steadily going down. I think I’m too aggressive out of position which gets me into some crappy situations and I turn into a donk every time I get aces or kings and can’t fold. All the graphs I’ve seen from pro players their red line is even or positive. How would I go about fixing my red line I’m extremely aggressive with 3 bets pre flop and when I’m in position but still really haven’t gotten it to recover

Also idk if this is a 25NL thing but when I have relevant blockers and the opponents range is capped I almost always bluff and just get snapped off by literally any hand that has a pair then feel like a dumass

There’s a lot to unpack here.

First, where are you learning your strat from? Solvers? Books? Training sites? Coaches?

Second, wherever it’s from, are you applying the principles to the stakes you’re actually playing? For example, a lot of people will claim to study GTO and get frustrated at low stakes when it “doesn’t work.” Make sure you’re studying the right concepts for the stakes you are playing.

Third, do some self-reflection after every session. Be honest with yourself about what you did well and what you need to improve on. You noticed you’re playing too aggressive OOP so tighten up your range. You know you get married to aces or kings so play them more conservatively on wet boards.

I mean, without actually knowing you and your tendencies, it’s hard to say what leaks you have. You may want to consider hiring a coach for a short while to at least point out some issues you could work on.

I like that "auto-call by any pair and take it" thing. During my bizzare death run, over 20 times worse/longr than any other during a 35 year career, one of the little facets of it was seemingly every time for well over 400 sessions, every time I took a stab in next-to-last position, the guy behind me reached for chips instantly over and over and over and the more I tracked it, the one player behind me was an auto-call over a nearly 100,000 hand stretch. I was just shaking my head. Then I started fake stabbing next-to-last to act to gauge this auto instant stuck phenomenon which they usually tipped. LOL. So I feel you on some of this. Keep living, keep applying the trade is all you can do.

If you truly only drew out one time in your sample size you are folding way too many hands. That is my problem. I will play in live tournaments and often the first hand I lose in the tournament is that hand that knocks me out.

Before COVID hit I used to play in a weekly tournament. The last 4 weeks I got knocked out with the same hand (Aces). In each instance we got the chips all in before the flop and in each I only had one caller. You may say its bad luck (and it is) but I would say **** happens, lol.

I learn from various poker coaches on youtube who analyze the pool I play in and go through pre-flop and post-flop solutions. I also watch many winning players play online at the stake I'm at and try to understand their thought processes. I don't sit and study piosolver or gtowizard because I feel it's pointless at the stakes I'm at but I try to understand the reasons why solvers make certain plays and decisions and apply that to how I play. I try to also be a creative player and take new lines that are not "GTO" to exploit the players in the pool.

The sooner u stop feeling sorry for urself, the better. Like that guy said, prepare your a$$hole for the run bad and don't quit.

you're more lucky with the higher ranking made hands. Pretty good run to me

Any reason you jumped into 25NL right off the bat? Seems like you’re not a winner at those stakes. Just being real. Doesn’t seem logical to go right into 25NL as a new player.

First mistake starting at 25nl. Not sure why you jumped in at that level but online poker isn't the easy money it use to be games have gotten a bit harder since the Moneymaker poker boom. I just came back to cash in Oct 2022 after playing MTT's for 15+ years or so I started back at 2nl. I'd probably start at 5nl but make sure I had at least 30 buy-ins for a bankroll at 5nl. Not sure how much you read, studied and such but for the money I'd recommend having a look at Peter Clarke's "From the Ground Up" course at Run it Once Poker. Link below. I'll give you a you tube link to Carrot Poker which is also Peter Clarke. It's free and will give an idea of how Peter coaches and his style. Great place to start.
https://www.youtube.com/@CarrotCornerPoker
https://www.runitonce.com/courses/from-the-ground-up/


Cheers!!!

That red line says it all. If you can't see why go read a book.

2nl probably plays harder now than 25nl did back in the day. Just sayin'.

Honestly not a brag my cash game while getting better is still pretty terrible and old MTT habits die hard. So even thou I haven't focused on cash in 15 years and I'm changing/revamping my game while playing.......I don't have much trouble beating 2nl full-ring games on Pokerstars. My biggest issue is getting volume as I have kinda busy real life. I do well to get 1000 hand/week or 4k/month.

50nl back in the Moneymaker poker boom was pretty easy as well. That's where I started 50nl with a measly $500. My first deposit was $150 never looked back. Should have stuck with playing cash lol. This time around I guess I just wanted to start at the very bottom for a challenge/shits n giggles idk lol. Should have likely started at least at 5nl and work my way back up at least 50nl.

Really should improve my 6-max game. Just never really felt comfortable playing 6-max and just find it a lot easier to know where I'm at in any given hand playing full-ring.


Cheers!!!

I already pointed out that my red line was bad but I haven’t found a way to curve that in these stakes. I’ve been extremely aggressive and you can see that from my leak tracker. I jumped into 25NL because I was beating 1/2 at the local casino and wanted to get better at the game so that I could perform better there. Realistically I’m probably not a winner at 25NL and as you said it’s an extremely though player field compared to years ago... I’ve used pre flop and post flop simulations and solutions and analyzed the player pool but my red line continues to drop despite the aggression. Anyways again thank you for the comment and if you could just give some advice on what you did to correct your red line. I’m taking a break from online poker and I’m going to begin a poker vlog playing 1/2 if you are interested in watching my YouTube is SketchySZN. Will be posting in the coming weeks so you can see those results as compared to online. I think the problem I have online is my inability to make good folds because of the stakes. I call weaker hands that I would have 100% folded live just because it’s online and “only 10 bucks” so I just say f it and call which leads to a lot of bad hero calls. I still do think this is a pretty bad run tough maybe 2% or 1% to happen after this sample.

I would also say that I run break even at these stakes or slightly +EV based on the statistics