serious question about running way below EV - Poker Beats Brags and Variance

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serious question about running way below EV

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07-06-2010 , 04:50 PM

Cbo97

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 112

I'm curious whether or not running 20 BI's below EV over 10,000 hands is considered running terribly...or can it be attributable to bad play as well?

I mean is that statistic always just a straight forward sign of the negative side of variance or can the plays you make really affect this stat?

I'm only playing 10NL but over my last 14000 hands my EV winrate is 6.36 ptbb but my actual winrate is 1.29 ptbb...which is pissing me off considerably because 20 BI's at 10NL is essentially a bankroll. So I really want to know if I'm doing something insanely wrong or if I'm just hitting brickwall after brickwall over a relatively small sample

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07-06-2010 , 04:51 PM

Mister Beezy

banned

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 51

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cbo97

in b4 5 star thread

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07-06-2010 , 04:53 PM

neok

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 6,799

not sure if serious..

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07-06-2010 , 04:54 PM

spadebidder

Actually Shows Proof

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cbo97

I'm only playing 10NL but over my last 14000 hands my EV winrate is 6.36 ptbb but my actual winrate is 1.29 ptbb

You have no way to know this expectation for anything other than hands you were all-in preflop with a single caller, and to less accurate degree with other all-ins as well. For hands without an all-in, you have no idea of your equity.

If you are playing heads-up you know it for all showdowns but that doesn't help either as many hands have no showdown.

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07-06-2010 , 05:00 PM

RANGERgfx

adept

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 1,159

Do you even know how does EV work?

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07-06-2010 , 05:21 PM

SNGrider

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 1,742

i got this one guys.... ya see you got to know when to holdem.... know when to foldem..... know when to walk away know when to run....THE END.

you have 20k hands total now?

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07-06-2010 , 05:22 PM

RobFarha

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 9,685

Should just fold pre

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07-06-2010 , 05:23 PM

SNGrider

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 1,742

Quote:

Originally Posted by RANGERgfx

Do you even know how does EV work?

stayed an extra five minutes cause of your avatar

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07-06-2010 , 05:29 PM

Larry Legend

Celtic Pride

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 42,920

Quote:

Originally Posted by SNGrider

stayed an extra five minutes cause of your avatar

I am going back and forth between whether it is real or it is CGI. I still do not know.

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07-06-2010 , 05:33 PM

#10

RANGERgfx

adept

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 1,159

Quote:

Originally Posted by SNGrider

stayed an extra five minutes cause of your avatar

Yeah, works as a threadsaver for these ****ty threads.

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07-06-2010 , 05:44 PM

#11

Teninches

centurion

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 114

Op's post does have some vailidity, even if he doesn't really know why. All-in EV is overrated imo.

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07-06-2010 , 06:04 PM

#12

Dr.Livingstone

banned

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 382

20buy ins jesus you must be one of the unluckiest people in the world, too bad all in ev doesent have memory tho

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07-06-2010 , 07:10 PM

#13

roggo

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 2,172

Why are you allin at NL10? You should just check/call until river to see if you have best hand.

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07-06-2010 , 07:53 PM

#14

realsheesha

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 2,296

They invented "Running under EV" to keep the fish playing. It's impossible to calculate how lucky you are so they came up with this meaningless bs.

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07-06-2010 , 08:21 PM

#15

TeddyKGB45

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 3,136

Play better

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07-06-2010 , 08:22 PM

#16

MindGamez

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 1,225

confirmed OP sucks at poker

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07-06-2010 , 08:57 PM

#17

cocowheats

banned

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 340

dont worry op, it happens to all of us. one week i ran under five bridges and got hit by two cars

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07-06-2010 , 09:37 PM

#18

spadebidder

Actually Shows Proof

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by realsheesha

They invented "Running under EV" to keep the fish playing. It's impossible to calculate how lucky you are so they came up with this meaningless bs.

I suspect that the makers of HEM and PT thought it would be useful and interesting but didn't foresee that most players are confused by the meaning of it. It's become completely misconstrued in actual use, and the OP is far from alone in misquoting what the graph is actually saying, and how it is calculated.

I'll leave it at this: the information in that graph has very limited usefulness and then only if you understand what it really shows.

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07-06-2010 , 09:48 PM

#19

mrdurdenptp

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 2,820

i think i have a post somewhere at like 250 buyins below EV.....just keep chugging away

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07-06-2010 , 10:00 PM

#20

animal_chin

the friendly drunk

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,974

Serious posts don't belong in BBV.

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07-06-2010 , 10:03 PM

#21

ScreaminAsian

For President

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 33,333

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cbo97

IMO your opponents have formulated a counter-strategy aimed directly at your all-in EV. Unfortunately for you, it's working. And I'm unwilling to tell you the easy solution to plug this leak because BBV isn't a strat forum.

gl tho, just play better i guess.

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07-06-2010 , 10:04 PM

#22

aleksilia

banned

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 157

Quote:

Originally Posted by SNGrider

i got this one guys.... ya see you got to know when to holdem.... know when to foldem..... know when to walk away know when to run....THE END.

you have 20k hands total now?

This

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07-06-2010 , 10:04 PM

#23

ToTheInternet

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 13,876

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScreaminAsian

IMO your opponents have formulated a counter-strategy aimed directly at your all-in EV.

this, ainec

people are probably trying to get into big pots with you, after they see you win a flurry of small to medium pots.

'cause it all evens out ldo and you are more likely to lose that big pot.

what you need to do is start pretending to win those small to medium pots, when you've actually lost them.

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07-06-2010 , 10:21 PM

#24

Sh@i'tan

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 1,915

serious post time.

OP, post your all in ev graph please.

as for your question, running 20 buyins below all in ev over 10k hands is very standard. best thing to do if it bothers you is learn to play more hands per week.

the latter half of your post makes me think you don't get what all in ev actually is. its just your expectation in all in pots, hardly hitting a 'brick wall'... brick wall after brick wall would be running bad in coolers over a small sample size.

curious what your total sample of hands at nl10 is also.

you should post a screenshot of your lifetime stats and lifetime graph too.

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07-06-2010 , 10:58 PM

#25

blocka

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 2,471

everyone runs below EV afaik.

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