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Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins.

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Old 07-06-2010, 04:50 PM   #1
Cbo97
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serious question about running way below EV

I'm curious whether or not running 20 BI's below EV over 10,000 hands is considered running terribly...or can it be attributable to bad play as well?

I mean is that statistic always just a straight forward sign of the negative side of variance or can the plays you make really affect this stat?

I'm only playing 10NL but over my last 14000 hands my EV winrate is 6.36 ptbb but my actual winrate is 1.29 ptbb...which is pissing me off considerably because 20 BI's at 10NL is essentially a bankroll. So I really want to know if I'm doing something insanely wrong or if I'm just hitting brickwall after brickwall over a relatively small sample
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Old 07-06-2010, 04:51 PM   #2
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cbo97 View Post
I'm curious whether or not running 20 BI's below EV over 10,000 hands is considered running terribly...or can it be attributable to bad play as well?

I mean is that statistic always just a straight forward sign of the negative side of variance or can the plays you make really affect this stat?

I'm only playing 10NL but over my last 14000 hands my EV winrate is 6.36 ptbb but my actual winrate is 1.29 ptbb...which is pissing me off considerably because 20 BI's at 10NL is essentially a bankroll. So I really want to know if I'm doing something insanely wrong or if I'm just hitting brickwall after brickwall over a relatively small sample
in b4 5 star thread
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Old 07-06-2010, 04:53 PM   #3
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

not sure if serious..
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Old 07-06-2010, 04:54 PM   #4
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

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Originally Posted by Cbo97 View Post
I'm only playing 10NL but over my last 14000 hands my EV winrate is 6.36 ptbb but my actual winrate is 1.29 ptbb
You have no way to know this expectation for anything other than hands you were all-in preflop with a single caller, and to less accurate degree with other all-ins as well. For hands without an all-in, you have no idea of your equity.

If you are playing heads-up you know it for all showdowns but that doesn't help either as many hands have no showdown.
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Old 07-06-2010, 05:00 PM   #5
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

Do you even know how does EV work?
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Old 07-06-2010, 05:21 PM   #6
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

i got this one guys.... ya see you got to know when to holdem.... know when to foldem..... know when to walk away know when to run....THE END.

you have 20k hands total now?
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Old 07-06-2010, 05:22 PM   #7
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

Should just fold pre
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Old 07-06-2010, 05:23 PM   #8
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

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Originally Posted by RANGERgfx View Post
Do you even know how does EV work?
stayed an extra five minutes cause of your avatar
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Old 07-06-2010, 05:29 PM   #9
Larry Legend
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

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stayed an extra five minutes cause of your avatar
I am going back and forth between whether it is real or it is CGI. I still do not know.
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Old 07-06-2010, 05:33 PM   #10
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

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stayed an extra five minutes cause of your avatar
Yeah, works as a threadsaver for these ****ty threads.
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Old 07-06-2010, 05:44 PM   #11
Teninches
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

Op's post does have some vailidity, even if he doesn't really know why. All-in EV is overrated imo.
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Old 07-06-2010, 06:04 PM   #12
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

20buy ins jesus you must be one of the unluckiest people in the world, too bad all in ev doesent have memory tho
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Old 07-06-2010, 07:10 PM   #13
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

Why are you allin at NL10? You should just check/call until river to see if you have best hand.
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Old 07-06-2010, 07:53 PM   #14
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

They invented "Running under EV" to keep the fish playing. It's impossible to calculate how lucky you are so they came up with this meaningless bs.
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Old 07-06-2010, 08:21 PM   #15
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

Play better
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Old 07-06-2010, 08:22 PM   #16
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

confirmed OP sucks at poker
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Old 07-06-2010, 08:57 PM   #17
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

dont worry op, it happens to all of us. one week i ran under five bridges and got hit by two cars
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Old 07-06-2010, 09:37 PM   #18
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

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Originally Posted by realsheesha View Post
They invented "Running under EV" to keep the fish playing. It's impossible to calculate how lucky you are so they came up with this meaningless bs.
I suspect that the makers of HEM and PT thought it would be useful and interesting but didn't foresee that most players are confused by the meaning of it. It's become completely misconstrued in actual use, and the OP is far from alone in misquoting what the graph is actually saying, and how it is calculated.

I'll leave it at this: the information in that graph has very limited usefulness and then only if you understand what it really shows.
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Old 07-06-2010, 09:48 PM   #19
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

i think i have a post somewhere at like 250 buyins below EV.....just keep chugging away
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Old 07-06-2010, 10:00 PM   #20
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

Serious posts don't belong in BBV.
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Old 07-06-2010, 10:03 PM   #21
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cbo97 View Post
I'm curious whether or not running 20 BI's below EV over 10,000 hands is considered running terribly...or can it be attributable to bad play as well?

I mean is that statistic always just a straight forward sign of the negative side of variance or can the plays you make really affect this stat?

I'm only playing 10NL but over my last 14000 hands my EV winrate is 6.36 ptbb but my actual winrate is 1.29 ptbb...which is pissing me off considerably because 20 BI's at 10NL is essentially a bankroll. So I really want to know if I'm doing something insanely wrong or if I'm just hitting brickwall after brickwall over a relatively small sample
IMO your opponents have formulated a counter-strategy aimed directly at your all-in EV. Unfortunately for you, it's working. And I'm unwilling to tell you the easy solution to plug this leak because BBV isn't a strat forum.

gl tho, just play better i guess.
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Old 07-06-2010, 10:04 PM   #22
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

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Originally Posted by SNGrider View Post
i got this one guys.... ya see you got to know when to holdem.... know when to foldem..... know when to walk away know when to run....THE END.

you have 20k hands total now?
This
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Old 07-06-2010, 10:04 PM   #23
ToTheInternet
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

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Originally Posted by ScreaminAsian View Post
IMO your opponents have formulated a counter-strategy aimed directly at your all-in EV.
this, ainec

people are probably trying to get into big pots with you, after they see you win a flurry of small to medium pots.

'cause it all evens out ldo and you are more likely to lose that big pot.

what you need to do is start pretending to win those small to medium pots, when you've actually lost them.
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Old 07-06-2010, 10:21 PM   #24
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

serious post time.

OP, post your all in ev graph please.

as for your question, running 20 buyins below all in ev over 10k hands is very standard. best thing to do if it bothers you is learn to play more hands per week.

the latter half of your post makes me think you don't get what all in ev actually is. its just your expectation in all in pots, hardly hitting a 'brick wall'... brick wall after brick wall would be running bad in coolers over a small sample size.

curious what your total sample of hands at nl10 is also.

you should post a screenshot of your lifetime stats and lifetime graph too.
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Old 07-06-2010, 10:58 PM   #25
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Re: serious question about running way below EV

everyone runs below EV afaik.
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