Is 100nl your normal game? If so you might as well continue with the bet and try to go on a heater. Unless you get decent offers on buyouts or if the money you will make from switching sites outweighs the possibility of winning the bet.

ill go even odds on me getting a royal flush this month

gg

ownd

lot of time left in month, down but not out.

OP, you need to focus. Get in the zone. Believe in yourself. You need to prove only to yourself; that you can recover and keep fighting. Just relax and don't force things. There is plenty of time. Just focus on the moment, the end result will take care of themselves.


Forget about the leaderboard and focus on your game and playing ur best.

do you know something about ugl?

who knows silent, maybe ugl will not track any of your losing sessions for the rest of the month. its super random atm.

Why the sudden switch to FR?

If 6-1 is a fair line for Quad, BBV prly won't budge from 3-1.

silent,

remember u have 29 days left, nothing is lost so far. even if u are way behind at the 15th, you have not lost. many regs will take a break after xmas, when they have their milestones in.

gogogo man, keep the faith

gl franxic

yea all this is v premature, remember super lags not only have sicker downsongs but way way sicker heaters too. It's without question that OP has at least one or two + $1500 days in the month with this volume, maybe even more than that IMO.

Last month i started off -$5k in about 4 days at 100nl and then after 14 days I was +$3k. I know i shouldn't be helping OP here since i've got 2 bets against lol, just saying, its funny how ur mindset changes once you turn the corner from downswing to heater.

And like already mentioned, even if OP only breaks even ish at end of month most of his exposure is covered by RB anyway like almost all of these prop bets.

Keep ur chin up sir and ride the storm!

InB4 epic heateer

Zachvac got 3:1 on his bet to win 15k at 100nl right, so dont see how could any of the top regs (ronfar, vinvinci, natizfinest,helengamble etc) would be more than that. 15k is in effect what this bet is basically (sometimes 12k wins it, sometimes 18k wins it, average~15k), as thats about what the ugl at 100 nl averages out to. I suppose there is a missing hands factor but isnt likely more than 5-10%

I don't think this is the right way to look at it.

If you get 15k in a month, what are the chances you win it? Maybe 60% or so? So obviously you would need better odds than a 15k prop bet when if you got there you would have a 100% chance of winning.

I also wouldn't underestimate missed hands. I routinely have 2-3k missing from my UGL results, I think because I play in UK mornings which is when server restarts happen, and it seems to miss more at that time.

Meh - 6/1 doesn't sound that unreasonable for one of the name players at 100NL.

Silent_one - don't quit. Seriously you have to keep your head together.

river mustelid. what times do u play exactly? (I'm uk based also and been experimenting with morning sessions etc.) I've been tryig to work out when is best times but sometimes its just pot luck.

edit: pm me maybe, dont wanna derail this thread and annoy people lol.

yes but you can with this bet with 12k 10% of the time with 13k 15% of time etc etc, where as you win the 15k bet 0% of the time in those situations, so the odds of making 15k in a month and winning the UGL are going to end up being very close. So this either means zachvac's 3:1 line was off (and should be more like 6:1) or that ronfar and vinvinci helengamble natizfinest are really no more than 3:1 on a month if they were to grind hard in one particular month on the challenge.

lol trainwreck

play 2 more days and buy out if you keep losing

Bri9nging it back - 9 BI upswing

I mean, obviously he was nervous starting this thing so I really doin't get why he would play a super nitty game the first couple days. It seems the one thing he couldn't afford if he has any chance at this (notice I could have said "had", OP lol) is a start like this. Should have played nitty as hell to start hoping to get hit with the deck to at worst lose a grand or so up to this point. Inb4 he should play "his game" from the start eff that nitty ****...but for srs, he's played himself outta this in the first 2 days unless he runs like God for a decent stretch. (all of this is based on what appears to be a very, very fragile confidence level, obv)

lol at trying this at stars in dec. gl. youre gonna need it.

no! u want regs to see u as a spewmonkey, not a nit. playing like a nit for 3-4 days seals a picture in players minds and makes HUD stats tell them to fold vs u. Not being a nit means he gets paid in future. Anyway... it's day 3/31 lol, gl OP.

op, sorry to say this but from the moment I saw your ptr I wish I was the guy who betted 30k cause it looked like free 5k.
I'm not saying this based on any winrate information but rather on the volume of hands. Unless I'm missing something you don't seem to have the stomach to grind a full month like crazy and be the biggest winner on top of that. If I had the money I would take 10-1.
Unfortunately I was confirmed right when I saw your 1st update. Again not so much for the graph but for your attitude when you said you were very tilted. I think you know you can't do this, at least for now.
I hope you can turn things around though.

GL!

are you still taking action?

pretty easy statement now, DUCY?

most of op´s recent play was on sites ptr doesn´t cover (at least as much as ps or ft). if u had money to bet and were smart, u´d think twice.