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***Official 000 in a month at NL 25 Challenge Update Thread*** ***Official 000 in a month at NL 25 Challenge Update Thread***

05-23-2008 , 02:40 AM
wtf why are people sending me pennies
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05-23-2008 , 02:42 AM
can someone tell me how i can type in the chat box? I registered on stickam but when i type something and press send...nothing happens.
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05-23-2008 , 02:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WCGRider
wtf why are people sending me pennies
people think it will make you run better. at least thats my guess. who do I send to to make you run bad?
***Official 000 in a month at NL 25 Challenge Update Thread*** Quote
05-23-2008 , 02:51 AM
Any net update besides the two ridiculous hands? How're you doing Doug?
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05-23-2008 , 02:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WCGRider
wtf why are people sending me pennies
don't complain, I think Negreanu ended up getting a couple thousand through pennies and what not
***Official 000 in a month at NL 25 Challenge Update Thread*** Quote
05-23-2008 , 02:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaseS87
but this is precisely the reason that this is possible.
Yeah, thats 100% true. But thats also a reason for huge variance due to lots of sucking out and if that variance abuses WCG a ton, he's not going to make it.
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05-23-2008 , 02:56 AM
chopsticks normally i agree with what you have to say a lot but i think that is an invalid argument as it runs good and bad. Also by the end of this i will have so much sample i will be more or less even.
***Official 000 in a month at NL 25 Challenge Update Thread*** Quote
05-23-2008 , 02:57 AM
OH ****, WHIPPING OUT THE STARS JACKET!!
***Official 000 in a month at NL 25 Challenge Update Thread*** Quote
05-23-2008 , 02:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chopsticks
Yeah, thats 100% true. But thats also a reason for huge variance due to lots of sucking out and if that variance abuses WCG a ton, he's not going to make it.
There's not going to be huge variance over the amount of hands he's going to have to play.

edit: plah I'm late
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05-23-2008 , 03:05 AM
confirmed: leather jacket is in the game
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05-23-2008 , 03:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WCGRider
chopsticks normally i agree with what you have to say a lot but i think that is an invalid argument as it runs good and bad. Also by the end of this i will have so much sample i will be more or less even.
That is true also. But remember that the variance can turn a little bit more on the negative side as in NL25 there are going to be more situations where you try to get value for hands where you don't know if you're gold or not and you just can't play those hands passively - i.e. TPTK against a set when villain superslowplays until river, set against superslowplayed straights etc. The games at these stakes are so passive that you never know where you stand at.

But thats just my two cents, I've never played this many hands in a month and never probably will. After all the most important factor in completing this bet is that you're able to keep your mind clear and play your best game all the time for the next 31 days. If you're able to do that, you'll beat the rake and ship da monies.
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05-23-2008 , 03:20 AM
Uh... I doubt any variance will make much difference over 200k+ hands
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05-23-2008 , 03:22 AM
GL RIDER!
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05-23-2008 , 03:24 AM
do u post graphs during the challenge?
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05-23-2008 , 03:25 AM
i like it when he jives on camera
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05-23-2008 , 03:26 AM
gogogogoggogogogo leather jacket
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05-23-2008 , 03:30 AM
how the hell do i chat???
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05-23-2008 , 03:32 AM
variance will be a huge factor here over a huge ass sample in FR playing loose passive nits. goodluck man but i put my money that you cant make it lol.
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05-23-2008 , 03:36 AM
more singing pls
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05-23-2008 , 03:37 AM
Variance is proportional to 1 / (sample size). In WCG's case, sample size is effectively infinity. So variance is 0.
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05-23-2008 , 03:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chopsticks
That is true also. But remember that the variance can turn a little bit more on the negative side as in NL25 there are going to be more situations where you try to get value for hands where you don't know if you're gold or not and you just can't play those hands passively - i.e. TPTK against a set when villain superslowplays until river, set against superslowplayed straights etc. The games at these stakes are so passive that you never know where you stand at.
i really don't mean to offend, but you don't understand poker.
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05-23-2008 , 03:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaseS87
i really don't mean to offend, but you don't understand poker.
No offence taken. I guess I just don't know how to say what I mean as I'm not english. It's not variance particulary what I'm talking about, just all the other factors involved which come to play in NL25. It is true that variance will be 0 during the time span of 31 days and hand amount of 200k+.
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05-23-2008 , 03:48 AM
I think you mean there is more sucky play at nl25, not variance?
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05-23-2008 , 03:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by orestto
I think you mean there is more sucky play at nl25, not variance?
Yeah, more like that. And multiway pots with 6 guys hangin on the river etc. Of course it is profitable for a TAG player but can also be a bitch when your sets, two pair etc get sucked out constantly.
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05-23-2008 , 03:58 AM
Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

CO: $35.05
BTN: $25.40
SB: $23.80
BB: $18.10
UTG: $54.70
Hero (UTG+1): $28.20
UTG+2: $22.65
MP1: $11.40
MP2: $15.25

Pre Flop: Hero is UTG+1 with J A
UTG calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.50, 4 folds, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.25

Flop: ($4.85) T K Q (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $4, BTN calls $4, UTG folds

Turn: ($12.85) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $20, BTN calls $19.90 all in

River: ($52.65) 9 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Spoiler:
Final Pot: $52.65
BTN shows Qc Qh (a full house, Queens full of Nines)
Hero shows Jd As (a straight, Ten to Ace)
BTN wins $50.05
(Rake: $2.60)
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